tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The CMC looks very close to fun for the upper mid-south. Looks like it's going to phase with a strong vort coming in just behind the low pressure in south mississippi. That's a REALLY good look, even if it is fantasy. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 For the midsouth folks... timing a bit different on the CMC, and its quite beneficial for us I would love to know how you got this image, Ewall is not going past 72 hours for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The CMC looks very close to fun for the upper mid-south. Looks like it's going to phase with a strong vort coming in just behind the low pressure in south mississippi. That's a REALLY good look, even if it is fantasy. haha That's what we want. Slower moving cutoff sitting on the gulf coast waiting to get picked up by the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's good to know that at least there is a possibility, but we already knew that, even without models. We have had Robert around telling us that for a month or longer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's good to know that at least there is a possibility, but we already knew that, even without models. We have had Robert around telling us that for a month or longer now. Even in this chaotic fast moving pattern, Robert has been making good calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I just hate that we'll likely have to wait another 96 hours before we'll have an idea of whether the timing will be right. And I do hate to have the CMC picking up on this solution first, given its abysmal performance among abysmally performing models this year. It's 6 day verification scores, last I looked, we're behind the euro gfs and ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I just hate that we'll likely have to wait another 96 hours before we'll have an idea of whether the timing will be right. And I do hate to have the CMC picking up on this solution first, given its abysmal performance among abysmally performing models this year. It's 6 day verification scores, last I looked, we're behind the euro gfs and ukie It's always been behind those models. Gfs is behind the jma. The gfs is ranked 4th. Euro 1 Ukie 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I just hate that we'll likely have to wait another 96 hours before we'll have an idea of whether the timing will be right. And I do hate to have the CMC picking up on this solution first, given its abysmal performance among abysmally performing models this year. It's 6 day verification scores, last I looked, we're behind the euro gfs and ukie There's still not enough confluence over the NE to yield a HP. At best you'll get some snow on the NW fringe of the precip shield but without a true 50/50 low in place to allow high pressure to build above it, this is cold chasing rain. The pattern needs to evolve more to make these favorable setups to occur. Maybe this storm will develop into a PV over SE Canada to provide adequate HP production. The 0z Euro and yesterday's 12z was intimating this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 There's still not enough confluence over the NE to yield a HP. At best you'll get some snow on the NW fringe of the precip shield but without a true 50/50 low in place to allow high pressure to build above it, this is cold chasing rain. Well I'm glad someone else came out and said it. Not to burst any bubbles but trying to extrapolate the model out in it's long range is never a good idea, and it rarely turns out how you might think. This also looks a lot like the 12Z Euro from yesterday where the UL was eventually absorbed into the cold front and not much came out of it. No telling what the Low does after hour 180, could be any number of outcomes, none of them look particularly snowy in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 For the midsouth folks... timing a bit different on the CMC, and its quite beneficial for us A big rainstorm cometh.... Where are you located, jmundie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well I'm glad someone else came out and said it. Not to burst any bubbles but trying to extrapolate the model out in it's long range is never a good idea, and it rarely turns out how you might think. This also looks a lot like the 12Z Euro from yesterday where the UL was eventually absorbed into the cold front and not much came out of it. No telling what the Low does after hour 180, could be any number of outcomes, none of them look particularly snowy in the south. It's a weather board, and it's what the optimistic people do. There are realistic people on the board that can help balance us out. Give me that look (CMC) verbatim at 180 and I will take my chances with the outcome for the midsouth. That said, I don't have rose colored glasses on with what I am seeing and have said it's likely fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's always been behind those models. Gfs is behind the jma. The gfs is ranked 4th. Euro 1 Ukie 2. The ukie is a pretty good model a lot of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Depends on where we are talking about. Verbatim, the CMC would be snow in the western 1/2 of TN if you roll it forward past 180...with rain to snow in E TN. The cold air is coming in fast and the precip would not end until that trailing wave in the midwest moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well I'm glad someone else came out and said it. Not to burst any bubbles but trying to extrapolate the model out in it's long range is never a good idea, and it rarely turns out how you might think. This also looks a lot like the 12Z Euro from yesterday where the UL was eventually absorbed into the cold front and not much came out of it. No telling what the Low does after hour 180, could be any number of outcomes, none of them look particularly snowy in the south. This pattern favors a big snow storm for the upper south. Most on the board would get rain out of this solution tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The ukie is a pretty good model a lot of times. Yeah, it's the Rodney Dangerfield of numerical weather prediction...probably because there is so little detailed mid/extended range maps available for free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The ukie is a pretty good model a lot of times. It's good to use when the gfs and euro are far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I like the looks of a lot of what the GFS Ensemble is showing in the medium and long range. Not a warm look at all. Also, cold/ winter weather fans have to like this look of this ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 This pattern favors a big snow storm for the upper south. Most on the board would get rain out of this solution tho. Too warm ahead of the wave. Lack of 50/50 low. This isn't "the" torm. I'd say this pattern at this moment in time is not favorable, but it's better than what we were seeing last month. It's just the beginning of a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Depends on where we are talking about. Verbatim, the CMC would be snow in the western 1/2 of TN if you roll it forward past 180...with rain to snow in E TN. The cold air is coming in fast and the precip would not end until that trailing wave in the midwest moves through. Good analysis, i agree. Tennessee is in a good spot. verbatim on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 As for the 12z Canadian, yes, it shows a mid-south snow. Extrapolating,it probably wouldn't work out for areas east of the mountains unless you had an explosive coastal phasing. One thing is sure on that model though.....it would get very cold in the eastern US following that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Good analysis, i agree. Tennessee is in a good spot. verbatim on the CMC. Yes, they may be the ones to get whatever snow there is, verbatim, as you say. But major and widespread it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 As for the 12z Canadian, yes, it shows a mid-south snow. Extrapolating,it probably wouldn't work out for areas east of the mountains unless you had an explosive coastal phasing. One thing is sure on that model though.....it would get very cold in the eastern US following that system. Yes, and hopefully this will be the storm to relocate the PV over SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Too warm ahead of the wave. Lack of 50/50 low. This isn't "the" torm. I'd say this pattern at this moment in time is not favorable, but it's better than what we were seeing last month. It's just the beginning of a pattern change. Even for Tenn? That's what I was referring to really. And Kentucky, a low that tracks thru central north Carolina would be great for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Even for Tenn? That's what I was referring to really. And Kentucky, a low that tracks thru central north Carolina would be great for them. See post #265 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 As for the 12z Canadian, yes, it shows a mid-south snow. Extrapolating,it probably wouldn't work out for areas east of the mountains unless you had an explosive coastal phasing. It's so far out but the timing could change for the better. Or worse. One thing is sure on that model though.....it would get very cold in the eastern US following that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 See post #265 I see, it looks like we posted at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm in Nashville... Hence my excitement about the Yates next week. It doesn't look good for folks in the true southeast, but that's why I said mid south (north ark, west and mid tenn, west central Kentucky) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z gfs ensembles look better than the op as far as the pattern goes. Solid -ao and looks blocky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Even for Tenn? That's what I was referring to really. And Kentucky, a low that tracks thru central north Carolina would be great for them. That kind of a look extrapolated out would probably yield a 2-4 or 3-6 type of event. if it snowed in western/middle/and parts of east TN, and some of Kentucky, I'd argue that it was both major (we are in the south after all) and widespread. Now, for the Carolinas, not so much. That map doesn't look good at all for them with what WOW is talking about and I can see his point easily for NC. But from Johnson City, TN. I can get to Canada quicker than I can to Memphis. The state of Tennessee isn't wide, but it's extremely long. I would say hitting 1/2 our state is widespread in my book, but not everyone would share my definition. It's all good though, that's what makes this weather board great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm in Nashville... Hence my excitement about the Yates next week. It doesn't look good for folks in the true southeast, but that's why I said mid south (north ark, west and mid tenn, west central Kentucky) I would excited if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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