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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part I


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It's never too early to start speculatin'. :sun:

Since we're entering the New Year, I thought I'd get the discussion going.

Yeah, there were a ton of named storms in 2011, but by most yardsticks, the season was kind of a bust. And the USA's major-hurricane drought has now gone on crazy long. The last 100-kt 'cane to hit the USA was Wilma 2005! The last time the USA went this long without a major was the period 1861-1868. Yikes.

What's 2012 going to bring us?

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It isn't even next year in Western Europe yet...

Based on neutral ENSO conditions, maybe more landfalling US storms. No idea why so many storms persistently underperformed this past season. I've seen the plots of lower tha n average CI, storms battled dry air, but not sure why...

post-138-0-21149100-1325354241.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

I've friended Dr. Lyons on FB. Not subscribed, friended. He takes pix of deer, and walking barefoot in the snow. To be FB friends with the NHC head would be awesome.

Stacy Stewart has a Bronze Star from Afghanistan and a Purple Heart from Iraq. IED. Six month in rehab, almost lost a leg. He might be due. I still treasure his disco before Hurricane Ike hit.

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The National Data Buoy Center will drop the old, user friendly "classic" presentation that allowed rapid navigation to a specific buoy, and allowed easy viewing of the buoy name/type on Valentine's Day.

I was checking buoys offshore for a potential thunderstorm day here mid-week, getting a feel for SSTs and the GFS 2 meter model output temps, and I was confronted by the news of this St. Valentine's Day Massacre, as it were.

This will become quite annoying when I'm trying to see individual buoys during tropical season. The final product looks the same, but much slower navigation there. [email protected] if anyone wants to send an e-mail...

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The National Data Buoy Center will drop the old, user friendly "classic" presentation that allowed rapid navigation to a specific buoy, and allowed easy viewing of the buoy name/type on Valentine's Day.

I was checking buoys offshore for a potential thunderstorm day here mid-week, getting a feel for SSTs and the GFS 2 meter model output temps, and I was confronted by the news of this St. Valentine's Day Massacre, as it were.

This will become quite annoying when I'm trying to see individual buoys during tropical season. The final product looks the same, but much slower navigation there. [email protected] if anyone wants to send an e-mail...

Ed thanks for the heads up, email sent:)

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Here's my take on this. After painfully sitting through Last years season with all the named thunderstorm clusters I have decided to reevaluate what I want from a Hurricane Season. I've decided that for 2012 year I don't want a hurricane season at all. Instead, I want a Herman Cain season: 9/9/9 baby!!!

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My hunch is there will be less storms, but more potential land falling impacts for the Coastal US. ENSO neutral to weak El Nino conditions to start the season and activity closer to the Caribbean Islands versus long tracking cyclones.

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Would it be possible for someone to offer some guidance? I'm looking for information on a theory that correlates tropical cyclone intensity and frequency with the temperature gradient between the tropical and upper laditudes. It might explain why last year's tropical cyclones underperformed.

http://thinkprogress...cord/?mobile=nc

If there is any truth to this, I'd expect this Atlantic hurricane season to be miles ahead of 2011 considering the new Arctic Oscillation regime. The cold air is still locked away whereas it was draining out last year. The arctic dipole anomaly is considerably weaker this winter.

January 12-23 temperature anomalies showing the gradient.

Jan16-232012actualanomalies.gif

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At this point, I'd be OK with it. It's not like the La Niñas have brought a goldmine of good chase subjects. They've all been flops in recent years.

Yeah as long as it's not too strong, hopefully shear isn't all that strong. I think the other thing to watch is how the NAO looks. Will it continue more on the positive side, or will it flip negative? That will probably be important to the strength and placement of the surface Atlantic high pressure.

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Yeah as long as it's not too strong, hopefully shear isn't all that strong. I think the other thing to watch is how the NAO looks. Will it continue more on the positive side, or will it flip negative? That will probably be important to the strength and placement of the surface Atlantic high pressure.

Just imagine if the NAO flips when Spring starts and we would need to deal with another 2011-style pattern, ugh. Of course, not considering other factors. The infamous hurricane season 2005 had neutral ENSO conditions but arriving after an el nino period.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Wow-- crazy.

The center position puts it right smack in the Yucatan Channel. And there's a nice blowup of convection right at that spot.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W

BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W

BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W

LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W

BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W

BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W

LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W

SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT

LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT

LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

post-32-0-19290800-1328460635.jpg

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Re- 90L

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE

W CARIBBEAN ACROSS NE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR

21N86W TO JUST OF THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA INTO THE SW

CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W

CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W

GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF A LINE

FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. THIS AREA IS

BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE

THAT EXTENDS TO OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS E OF

THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS

BUT OTHERWISE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR

WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W

CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT E ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN TO 85W THROUGH WED

THEN DISSIPATE THU. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE

TROUGH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF STRONG SHOWERS/

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

Still awaiting the first special outlook/lemon of 2012...

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