HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 2nd half of January onward. Scott (messenger) 17 inches for BOS is not a bad call imho. 2 months means we'll have at least some fun. We'll know in about 3 weeks if it duds out or we rock. The players are on the field....let's see if we can get things to fall into place. We've often seen winters of this one's personality find a way to screw us over and over again so optimism is in check. Meanwhile, I'm about to walk home facing NW.....lol... You need to scream into the wind like Wiz When was the last time things looked like that? (the above pattern?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You need to scream into the wind like Wiz When was the last time things looked like that? (the above pattern?) This winter even though it is a very different ENSO state reminds me entirely of 2006-07 including the tremendous flip and salvaging a tiny bit of snow but not alot. If we can get the gradient to work for us, then it can be alot more than 17 but I'm witholding expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 11th-14th big storm for the mountains and nne, lock that mofo in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 MLK weekend and beyond for a rocking winter period. La ala ala lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 0z gfs was unimpressive in every facet, delivers between a quarter and half inch of total precip over 384 hours to sne from sw to ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Reading and looking at all the graphs/models about the stratospheric warming and where we are heading is actually making me come around to see that perhaps we will see a pattern change sometime during the second half of the month...especially if we can get that AO to tank. The question is though...can we get a favorable storm/snow pattern? It's one thing to go cold but if it's cold and dry then FML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Reading and looking at all the graphs/models about the stratospheric warming and where we are heading is actually making me come around to see that perhaps we will see a pattern change sometime during the second half of the month...especially if we can get that AO to tank. The question is though...can we get a favorable storm/snow pattern? It's one thing to go cold but if it's cold and dry then FML The pattern change is definitely happening. The vortex getting flushed from AK will happen eventually. Ridging in the EPO region is a big pattern change...but that doesn't mean we all of the sudden do well because the +NAO is still strong and the -PNA can pump up the SE ridge too strong if it goes crazy enough...but overall we have a much much better chance for snow events in a -epo/-pna pattern than we did in a +EPO pattern. Hopefully we get on the right side of the gradient for that pattern. But its not a frigid pattern with endless cold and snow at least initially...it simply gives us a realistic shot to get snow events. Lakes cutters will still be a legit concern if any single shortwave amps up enough or phases with another vortmax. But I'll take that pattern over the one we have been in all day and every day...it gives us a legit shot. Whether we cash in on it or not remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The pattern change is definitely happening. The vortex getting flushed from AK will happen eventually. Ridging in the EPO region is a big pattern change...but that doesn't mean we all of the sudden do well because the +NAO is still strong and the -PNA can pump up the SE ridge too strong if it goes crazy enough...but overall we have a much much better chance for snow events in a -epo/-pna pattern than we did in a +EPO pattern. Hopefully we get on the right side of the gradient for that pattern. But its not a frigid pattern with endless cold and snow at least initially...it simply gives us a realistic shot to get snow events. Lakes cutters will still be a legit concern if any single shortwave amps up enough or phases with another vortmax. But I'll take that pattern over the one we have been in all day and every day...it gives us a legit shot. Whether we cash in on it or not remains to be seen. One of the big differences we are seeing right now is the AO forecasts...some members within the ensembles really want to tank that AO and around mid-month we see the NAO become less positive (almost neutral to slightly negative) along with a slight -EPO and tanking PNA. My hope is any SE ridging that tries to become pumped up is squashed down by a tanking AO along with weaker NAO signal. Hopefully too the -AO and even NAO setup in a position to where most of the ridging across the SE is closer off to the coast to keep the potential for lake cutters down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If heading into February we see a combo of a +NAO (slightly positive) with -AO/-EPO/-PNA I wonder if we could see something similar to Feb 1962? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The pattern change is definitely happening. The vortex getting flushed from AK will happen eventually. Ridging in the EPO region is a big pattern change...but that doesn't mean we all of the sudden do well because the +NAO is still strong and the -PNA can pump up the SE ridge too strong if it goes crazy enough...but overall we have a much much better chance for snow events in a -epo/-pna pattern than we did in a +EPO pattern. Hopefully we get on the right side of the gradient for that pattern. But its not a frigid pattern with endless cold and snow at least initially...it simply gives us a realistic shot to get snow events. Lakes cutters will still be a legit concern if any single shortwave amps up enough or phases with another vortmax. But I'll take that pattern over the one we have been in all day and every day...it gives us a legit shot. Whether we cash in on it or not remains to be seen. agree you cant have snow without a legit source for cold. that's a lesson i learned many years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00z d11-15 EC ens have much stronger ridging through the Aleutians/Bering Strait right up over the Pole...especially toward d15. We get below normal temps every day in that period with the motherload dumping into W CAN/US thanks to the -PNA. I'll take it at this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 00z d11-15 EC ens have much stronger ridging through the Aleutians/Bering Strait right up over the Pole...especially toward d15. We get below normal temps every day in that period with the motherload dumping into W CAN/US thanks to the -PNA. I'll take it at this latitude. Yeah they look great. I like what I see on the 00z run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Yeah they look great. I like what I see on the 00z run, Absolutley zero caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 0z gfs was unimpressive in every facet, delivers between a quarter and half inch of total precip over 384 hours to sne from sw to ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Blizz, this thread is over a 1000 posts. Will you , as WOTY, please start a new thread? This one has the taint of Messenger and Torch boy all over it. TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Blizz, this thread is over a 1000 posts. Will you , as WOTY, please start a new thread? This one has the taint of Messenger and Torch boy all over it. TIA. Tough seeing the mighty Euro once again lose a 7 day fantasy storm, good ole GFS once again taking the overamped euro to the woodshed. GFS precip looked spot on, this cold feels awesome, time to lace em up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Absolutley zero caution Well just saying what the run has. It doesn't change my thinking. A regime change is on the table. What the effects are, we don't know yet...but it will increase our chances of more wintry events hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well just saying what the run has. It doesn't change my thinking. A regime change is on the table. What the effects are, we don't know yet...but it will increase our chances of more wintry events hopefully. Agree completely. It may bode well, but then again it may evolve in such a fashion that it won't make much difference in terms of realizing consistent cold and snow chances. I'm amused by some of the exuberance and confidence that some posters have displayed with respect to a big pattern change to very wintry sensible weather. Not at all clear that's in the cards and the modeling has certainly been reluctant to go all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 GEFS are pretty chilly looking in the 11-15 day, and also have a strong arm hold of that PV in the Davis Sraits. It's surrounded by higher than normal heights to the west and north, which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's coming. bang the drums..Footsteps are loud..very loud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 GEFS are pretty chilly looking in the 11-15 day, and also have a strong arm hold of that PV in the Davis Sraits. It's surrounded by higher than normal heights to the west and north, which is a good thing. while not related really... it's interesting to see how the fri-tue period has/is evolving. we'll see how it plays out but that period to me looked like a big time torch several days ago...it'll still average out above normal but it's not nearly as bad. if only there were snow on the ground to make it matter. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 while not related really... it's interesting to see how the fri-tue period has/is evolving. we'll see how it plays out but that period to me looked like a big time torch several days ago...it'll still average out above normal but it's not nearly as bad. if only there were snow on the ground to make it matter. LOL Yeah now let's just hope the models aren't off by an equal amount on the coming "cold" change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 New thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31597-next-weeks-major-storm-and-beyond/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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