SNE 2011 Autumn Season Climate Review

[Turtle]

Hi gang!

Our office's new climate focal point put out a good Public Information Statement on the 2011 autumn season for our big 4 climate sites across southern New England.

http://forecast.weat...BOX&product=PNS

I wanted to be sure you note that there HAS BEEN a change to the snowfall in October for Hartford/Bradley for the big storm. This was just quietly updated on the monthly data in October. The record has been corrected here and going down to NCDC (I certainly hope). If you do go look on the CLI report on the climate section of our website, it should be corrected as well.

Just an FYI.

--Turtle

[CT Rain]

Hi gang!

Our office's new climate focal point put out a good Public Information Statement on the 2011 autumn season for our big 4 climate sites across southern New England.

http://forecast.weat...BOX&product=PNS

I wanted to be sure you note that there HAS BEEN a change to the snowfall in October for Hartford/Bradley for the big storm. This was just quietly updated on the monthly data in October. The record has been corrected here and going down to NCDC (I certainly hope). If you do go look on the CLI report on the climate section of our website, it should be corrected as well.

Just an FYI.

--Turtle

Another example of bad data going into the climate record.

[CapturedNature]

Hi gang!

Our office's new climate focal point put out a good Public Information Statement on the 2011 autumn season for our big 4 climate sites across southern New England.

http://forecast.weat...BOX&product=PNS

I wanted to be sure you note that there HAS BEEN a change to the snowfall in October for Hartford/Bradley for the big storm. This was just quietly updated on the monthly data in October. The record has been corrected here and going down to NCDC (I certainly hope). If you do go look on the CLI report on the climate section of our website, it should be corrected as well.

Just an FYI.

--Turtle

Thank you for posting this. It's interesting to see that it not only ranks as the warmest (or near the top) autumn at most climo sites, but also the snowiest October. That's really a crazy record. The fact that the previous records were so long ago shows you how special it was. I can't wait to see the annual summary....this whole year has been special!

I also noted that winter 01-02 ranked as the warmest winter at all sites. I guess some places did better for snow than I did but I just remember that as being a warm, snowless winter. Hopefully after this autumn we're not heading in that direction. Today's "cool" down gives me hope for now...but I'm already above normal for the day!

[snowman21]

Another example of bad data going into the climate record.

Was thinking the same thing. Noticed the name at the bottom...wonder if he's a PSU grad.

Also important to note, is the lengthy climate record the NWS uses. For example, it says Providence and Hartford go back to 1905, but T.F. Green didn't exist until the '30s, and BDL until 1940, so it seems unlikely that any weather observations were taken in those spots several decades before the existence of an airport. They must be using proxy sites (like the NERCC ThreadX project does) to stitch together a longer climate record than what NCDC officially recognizes as PVD and BDL proper. Maybe Turtle can shed light on that aspect as well as how they determined the 12.3 inches as the final total.

[OSUmetstud]

Another example of bad data going into the climate record.

what was it changed from? What is it supposed to be?

[Damage In Tolland]

That's the correct amount at BDL for th Oct storm

[snowman21]

what was it changed from? What is it supposed to be?

It was originally 12.3 inches on the 29th and 8.0 inches on the 30th. I believe they erased the 8.0 on the 30th.

[OSUmetstud]

It was originally 12.3 inches on the 29th and 8.0 inches on the 30th. I believe they erased the 8.0 on the 30th.

ahh okay...yeah I didn't think it was that much.

[Ginx snewx]

ahh okay...yeah I didn't think it was that much.

The 29th is right but snow did fall after midnight on the 30th, by most accounts there should be another 3 inches.

[ineedsnow]

i had 16 otg the next morning and that was the only time i measured theres no way they only got 12.3

That's the correct amount at BDL for th Oct storm

[snowman21]

The 29th is right but snow did fall after midnight on the 30th, by most accounts there should be another 3 inches.

How about after 1 AM? The climate day runs 12AM-12AM standard time which would be 1AM on the 30th. Perhaps that's part of the reason for the adjustment.

[OSUmetstud]

The 29th is right but snow did fall after midnight on the 30th, by most accounts there should be another 3 inches.

so what happened? Did no one measure?

[CapturedNature]

Was thinking the same thing. Noticed the name at the bottom...wonder if he's a PSU grad.

Also important to note, is the lengthy climate record the NWS uses. For example, it says Providence and Hartford go back to 1905, but T.F. Green didn't exist until the '30s, and BDL until 1940, so it seems unlikely that any weather observations were taken in those spots several decades before the existence of an airport. They must be using proxy sites (like the NERCC ThreadX project does) to stitch together a longer climate record than what NCDC officially recognizes as PVD and BDL proper. Maybe Turtle can shed light on that aspect as well as how they determined the 12.3 inches as the final total.

I can't speak for Providence, but I do know that the observation site for Hartford has moved several times since 1905. Just as a new record is not created when the temperature probe is moved from one side of the airfield to the other, they kept the existing record for Hartford and moved the official site to Bradley when it opened in the 1940s. I'm aware of the NERCC ThreadX project, but I can tell you that the data has been like that for the official Hartford station for a long time. I remember seeing 1905 on papers for Hartford in the 80s even through it was from Bradley.

You can see a list of stations here:

http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwDI~SelectStation~USA~CT

You can also see the moves of the station here:

http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwDI~StnSrch~StnID~20004130

I would argue that after 1996 the temperatures have been too warm, but that's just me. I know the sensor is accurate, but the location is warmer than where it was (a corn field across the street from the air field).

So I think for first order cities that a patchwork of stations is used. I think no matter where you look, you'll see that...it would be interesting to see if Turtle or someone else can explain that.

[CT Rain]

Was thinking the same thing. Noticed the name at the bottom...wonder if he's a PSU grad.

Also important to note, is the lengthy climate record the NWS uses. For example, it says Providence and Hartford go back to 1905, but T.F. Green didn't exist until the '30s, and BDL until 1940, so it seems unlikely that any weather observations were taken in those spots several decades before the existence of an airport. They must be using proxy sites (like the NERCC ThreadX project does) to stitch together a longer climate record than what NCDC officially recognizes as PVD and BDL proper. Maybe Turtle can shed light on that aspect as well as how they determined the 12.3 inches as the final total.

BDL is used post 1955 for Hartford area records. 3 locations downtown in Hartford were used between 1905 and 1955. That's the reason why this autumn is only the 4th warmest because 1 through 3 were all measured downtown (including at the Travelers tower).

[CT Rain]

i had 16 otg the next morning and that was the only time i measured theres no way they only got 12.3

Correct... we've been through this a million times. The measuring was just screwed up at BDL so instead of trying to put in a reasonable amount they just erased the data from 10/30 even though there was accumulation after midnight EST (1 a.m. EDT). Based on how the measuring was occurring I think the 12.3" may have been too low in the first place.

I had spoken several times to the new climate focal point about the total... we were on the same page. Out of the blue the media got an email from one of the managers over at BOX saying the 10/29 total stands and the 10/30 total is thrown out. When I inquired about why they were ignoring the snow accumulation after 1 a.m. I got no response. What was even more frustrating is that they didn't try to incorporate measurements from nearby to try to figure out approximately what the snowfall was at the airport since clearly the measuring was screwed up.

I think the fault lies not with those measuring but subpar education and outreach over the years (really since the 90s) between the NWS and the contract observers.

[CT Rain]

That's the correct amount at BDL for th Oct storm

Considering I had 12" otg in West Hartford at 8 or 9 a.m. on 10/30 I find it very hard to believe that the actual total at BDL wasn't 15 or 16" especially given the fact they are more north, they were colder, and they were in better banding.

[Ginx snewx]

Correct... we've been through this a million times. The measuring was just screwed up at BDL so instead of trying to put in a reasonable amount they just erased the data from 10/30 even though there was accumulation after midnight. Based on how the measuring was occurring I think the 12.3" may have been too low in the first place.

I had spoken several times to the new climate focal point about the total... we were on the same page. Out of the blue the media got an email from one of the managers over at BOX saying the 10/29 total stands and the 10/30 total is thrown out. When I inquired about why they were ignoring the snow accumulation after 1 a.m. I got no response. What was even more frustrating is that they didn't try to incorporate measurements from nearby to try to figure out approximately what the snowfall was at the airport since clearly the measuring was screwed up.

I think the fault lies not with those measuring but subpar education and outreach over the years (really since the 90s) between the NWS and the contract observers.

I like your new attitude, first CLP now NWS. I am all for making folks accountable with our dollars. You go man

[CT Rain]

I blogged about the bad data here

http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2011/11/20/disappointing-news-from-the-weather-service/

[CT Rain]

I like your new attitude, first CLP now NWS. I am all for making folks accountable with our dollars. You go man

Unless people at an office make it a top priority to get accurate snowfall measurements (either from COOPs, first order climate stations, or observers) we're stuck with garbage. I understand why other things are given a priority but I personally find it very disappointing.

[snowman21]

Unless people at an office make it a top priority to get accurate snowfall measurements (either from COOPs, first order climate stations, or observers) we're stuck with garbage. I understand why other things are given a priority but I personally find it very disappointing.

I'm under the impression, perhaps incorrectly, that if the airport observer doesn't feel like measuring snowfall, they don't have to. They are employed by the FAA, and their top priority is air traffic safety, not maintaining climate record. It's the same reason the ASOS is "on the tarmac" and not somewhere more representative. Perhaps the solution is to go back to the old days of climate recording - using co-ops instead of the airports. At least in those cases you have people that want to do it and take pride in that sort of thing, and aren't located amidst 3 mile x 150 ft wide strips of pavement.

Take a look at the obs for BDL after 4z on the 30th. It was pretty much toast, though they reported 1/4SM right up until 8z (3 AM EST) which is either +SN or SN and FG as reported at 4z before the ASOS went out. Hard to believe there was no measureable during all those hours of 1/4SM visibility even with the present weather indicator being offline.

[CT Rain]

I'm under the impression, perhaps incorrectly, that if the airport observer doesn't feel like measuring snowfall, they don't have to. They are employed by the FAA, and their top priority is air traffic safety, not maintaining climate record. It's the same reason the ASOS is "on the tarmac" and not somewhere more representative. Perhaps the solution is to go back to the old days of climate recording - using co-ops instead of the airports. At least in those cases you have people that want to do it and take pride in that sort of thing, and aren't located amidst 3 mile x 150 ft wide strips of pavement.

Take a look at the obs for BDL after 4z on the 30th. It was pretty much toast, though they reported 1/4SM right up until 8z (3 AM EST) which is either +SN or SN and FG as reported at 4z before the ASOS went out. Hard to believe there was no measureable during all those hours of 1/4SM visibility even with the present weather indicator being offline.

They lost power so were doing obs manually. There were maybe 1/4SM visibilities that were too low.

But yes I believe you are correct.

[BillB]

I'm under the impression, perhaps incorrectly, that if the airport observer doesn't feel like measuring snowfall, they don't have to. They are employed by the FAA, and their top priority is air traffic safety, not maintaining climate record. It's the same reason the ASOS is "on the tarmac" and not somewhere more representative. Perhaps the solution is to go back to the old days of climate recording - using co-ops instead of the airports. At least in those cases you have people that want to do it and take pride in that sort of thing, and aren't located amidst 3 mile x 150 ft wide strips of pavement.

Take a look at the obs for BDL after 4z on the 30th. It was pretty much toast, though they reported 1/4SM right up until 8z (3 AM EST) which is either +SN or SN and FG as reported at 4z before the ASOS went out. Hard to believe there was no measureable during all those hours of 1/4SM visibility even with the present weather indicator being offline.

T F Green is the only one of the four sites where the paid contract observer is taking snow measurements. The other 3 sites are snow-only volunteers who are nearby. Snow for BDL is measured by the CT Air National Guard.

[weatherwiz]

I can't wait until BDL gets the green light to begin hiring people for the weather observer position. I call them every few weeks but the guy said they are on a hiring freeze by the NWS b/c they are changing regulations and this was supposed to be done by October 1st but as of last week there was nothing done yet.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I can't wait until BDL gets the green light to begin hiring people for the weather observer position. I call them every few weeks but the guy said they are on a hiring freeze by the NWS b/c they are changing regulations and this was supposed to be done by October 1st but as of last week there was nothing done yet.

Would you do it for free?

[weatherwiz]

Would you do it for free?

I would certainly do it for free.

It is a paid position though, it's $23 an hour to start but if it was volunteer I would still do it.

[Turtle]

Was thinking the same thing. Noticed the name at the bottom...wonder if he's a PSU grad.

Also important to note, is the lengthy climate record the NWS uses. For example, it says Providence and Hartford go back to 1905, but T.F. Green didn't exist until the '30s, and BDL until 1940, so it seems unlikely that any weather observations were taken in those spots several decades before the existence of an airport. They must be using proxy sites (like the NERCC ThreadX project does) to stitch together a longer climate record than what NCDC officially recognizes as PVD and BDL proper. Maybe Turtle can shed light on that aspect as well as how they determined the 12.3 inches as the final total.

Hello.

The long record at PVD, BOS and BDL does date back before the airports were in existance. If you go to the NCDC site and call up an annual report for one of these stations, you can see the different locations across the town (or, in BDL's case, towns!) during the length of record on the back of the form(s). They were considered "official" NWS reporting sites, but they just moved around. I don't think that, back in the day, they thought about how moving around would affect the long term climate record (i.e. they didn't think about microclimates). That's what makes Blue Hill so special...same place (well, the temp shelter within 10 feet!) for over 125 YEARS!!

We do have access to XMACIS (which is linked to ThreadX as I recall). This does have a breakdown of the airport sites vs. the "area" (ex. for Boston, one listing says "Boston Area" and the other is just "Boston *", which is the airport). They do break down the different years of record for these sites.

As for how the snowfall for the October storm was determined, it was done by the office's Observation Program Leader (OPL) and our new Climate Focal Point. (He's the one that wrote the PNS today.) They looked over the reports that came on from the volunteers at BDL (the ANG folks, BTW), compared that to the radar observations at the same time, and also looked at the reports that came in from around the area. They figured out that the "final" 8 inch report was a double report, which was eliminated, as it came in after the snow had ended. Plus, eliminating this "extra" 8 inches ended up with the 12.3", which was comparable to the reports from the surrounding area.

The OPL also made a trip to our friends at BDL to go over snow reporting procedures. Remember, too, this was a high visibility, early heavy snow event. We usually go over snow measuring and reporting procedures with the folks at all of our four climate sites, but not until late November or early December. I was not aware of an e-mail going out from our office to the TV mets in Hartford/Springfield about this topic, nor about not adding any snowfall on 10/30. IMHO, that's not right either.

BTW, in my previous post, I had mentioned that I hoped that NCDC would get this update. They will! Since we did it not too long after the end of October (during November), the correction will be captured and recorded at NCDC. (K, Ryan?? )

Hope this explains things, along with BillB's comments. (Oh, one more thing...our new Climate Focal Point did go to Penn State.)

--Turtle