When will the pattern change to cold occur?

[uncle W]

Just for shiggles, here's a temp composite map of all Novembers preceding 40"+ winters in NYC since 1960.

Of the 12 years, 10 were warm. Only 1995 and 2002 had cold Novembers. So don't worry, a Nov torch in itself means little.

November's long term average (1870-2010) is 46.2 and since 1980 it's 48.0...21 years since 1945 had over 30" of snowfall...Those 21 years averaged 48.0...The 16 years that had over 40" averaged 48.3...There were five years with a ten inch storm but the winter had less than 30"...Those averaged 48.9...the coldest years were 1995 at 43.6...1955 at 44.2...Warm ones are 1948 at 52.4 and 2009 at 51.2...

[KEITH L.I]

today was the fifth warmest November 14th on record...69 degrees today knocks 1955 from the top five with 68 on this date...The others...

1993 72 great winter

1973 71 Great December ice storm...

1980 71 below zero Christmas day...

1989 70 White Thanksgiving and very cold December...

2011 69 ???

1955 68 snow on the 19th...Very cold December...Big March snows...

Dec1973 ice storm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMiFjtydDy4&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PL36C43EA90076B7CC

[Neblizzard]

Just for shiggles, here's a temp composite map of all Novembers preceding 40"+ winters in NYC since 1960.

Of the 12 years, 10 were warm. Only 1995 and 2002 had cold Novembers. So don't worry, a Nov torch in itself means little.

Excellent research but my question Is what kind of pattern was in place for the majority of those torch novembers and were things in the longwave pattern changing by months end?

[uncle W]

Dec1973 ice storm

http://www.youtube.c...6C43EA90076B7CC

I played in a sand lot game that day...There was a strong north wind and falling temperatures as the snow changed to sleet and freezing rain...There was more sleet than rain on my block but the area around JFK was mostly freezing rain with much tree damage...

[earthlight]

Euro weeklies are not good through around week 3 (and by not good I mean electric bath worthy) followed by a bit of a transition to a more favorable pattern, or at least a sign of change. But nothing really interesting. I'd like to see better EPO signals as we roll forward here over the next week or so on the ensembles, especially the GEFS. The cold air source and the positioning of the cold air is important..and in the current EPO it's going to be hard to get the good stuff into the most imperative regions of Canada for us.

[Isotherm]

Unc and Bluewave -- nice research. No doubt Novembers seems to be warming over the past few decades in the NY metro area, while October appears virtually neutral. I'm unsure of the answer in terms of causation...one would think if climate change were the cause, the entire autumn would be warming, not just one month. My hunch is the AMO being in its warm phase over the past 20 years had added to the fall warmth, and maybe its partially coincidence that mild patterns have occurred during the month of November in the East. Although IIRC, data for September also showed a distinct warming over the past 20 years, which also lends credence to the +AMO/mild Atlanta SSTA theory, given the AMO is most influential in the autumn months for the east coast.

[earthlight]

Just a note regarding the MJO impulses...there have been some surges over the past few weeks, especially in late October, and the GFS and GEFS forecasts have been laughably bad. If we trace ourselves back to 8 day verification on the GFS scheme, you can see that it was way off. The GFS/GEFS are the colored lines..while you can see the Nov MJO (red line) continued nowhere near this forecast. Just a note of caution as we try and utilize these model schemes for MJO forecasts moving forward.

[Isotherm]

Just a note regarding the MJO impulses...there have been some surges over the past few weeks, especially in late October, and the GFS and GEFS forecasts have been laughably bad. If we trace ourselves back to 8 day verification on the GFS scheme, you can see that it was way off. The GFS/GEFS are the colored lines..while you can see the Nov MJO (red line) continued nowhere near this forecast. Just a note of caution as we try and utilize these model schemes for MJO forecasts moving forward.

Good point. The MJO has been quite a bit more amplified than progged on the GFS; I tend to think the Euro has been much more accurate both w/ this pattern and with MJO forecasts in terms of amplitude. Going into the future, I'm fairly confident the MJO will stay out of the COD. The ECM has the wave deepening once into phase 3-4. If it remains this way through p4-7, it's good news for us. A deeper MJO wave means more significant effects on the long wave pattern.

[earthlight]

Good point. The MJO has been quite a bit more amplified than progged on the GFS; I tend to think the Euro has been much more accurate both w/ this pattern and with MJO forecasts in terms of amplitude. Going into the future, I'm fairly confident the MJO will stay out of the COD. The ECM has the wave deepening once into phase 3-4. If it remains this way through p4-7, it's good news for us. A deeper MJO wave means more significant effects on the long wave pattern.

Definitely to your last point---especially as we extend into December. I also agree with your idea that we actually could start December very warm, especially as we move through Phases 4-6 (who knows if we will get there given the consistency of these ensemble forecasts). Assuming we'll go through that path to get back towards a more favorable MJO state..with a deeper MJO wave propagating through 4-5-6, we'll probably really warm up before the pattern flips.

Also for those trying to get an idea on how these phases historically affect temperatures around the CONUS...you can view the composites here (these are for DJF):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/DJF/combined_image.png

[NYCSuburbs]

Euro weeklies are not good through around week 3 (and by not good I mean electric bath worthy) followed by a bit of a transition to a more favorable pattern, or at least a sign of change. But nothing really interesting. I'd like to see better EPO signals as we roll forward here over the next week or so on the ensembles, especially the GEFS. The cold air source and the positioning of the cold air is important..and in the current EPO it's going to be hard to get the good stuff into the most imperative regions of Canada for us.

I don't know a lot yet about the exact impact that the EPO has on the US/Canada pattern, I'm still learning about some of these factors, but unless the EPO turns negative (which won't happen any time soon), would the cold air will continue to struggle building in southern Canada? I remember last November, there was already strong cold air in SW Canada towards this time of the year, but at least looking at the models for the next week, the cold air from Alaska/western Canada appears to struggle to build down to SW Canada, and the strong cold that does get down there is pushed out as more mild air moves in.

[Dsnowx53]

It's interesting that the GFS is forecasting a more unfavorable MJO compared to that of the Euro, yet the Euro is definitely not showing the hints of a favorable pattern change like the GFS is showing.

[Weathergun]

It's interesting that the GFS is forecasting a more unfavorable MJO compared to that of the Euro, yet the Euro is definitely not showing the hints of a favorable pattern change like the GFS is showing.

The Euro ensembles as of Nov 11 that Isotherm posted, didn't show the MJO going through phases 4/5 until mid decemeber. The mean point is still in phase 4 on Dec. 12th. My guess is that Euro ensembles still show that. Phases are 4 and 5 are typical our worse phases in the DJF period. And that seems to be magnified with the La Nina with lower MEI numbers than -0.5. We still have the +EPO as well. Taking that into consideration and the possible lagging influences of the MJO, of to up to a week, for our sensible weather, we could be waiting until around Christmas or beyond for a decent pattern change. Since it doesn't look like the MJO in phases 8/1, at the end of this month, will do it:

http://www.cpc.ncep....IVAR/emon.shtml

http://raleighwx.ame...nagt1Phase4.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...nagt1Phase5.gif

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro ensembles as of Nov 11 that Isotherm posted, didn't show the MJO going through phases 4/5 until mid decemeber. The mean point is still in phase 4 on Dec. 12th. My guess is that Euro ensembles still show that. Phases are 4 and 5 are typical our worse phases in the DJF period. And that seems to be magnified with the La Nina with lower MEI numbers than -0.5. We still have the +EPO as well. Taking that into consideration and the possible lagging influences of the MJO, of to up to a week, for our sensible weather, we could be waiting until around Christmas or beyond for a decent pattern change. Since it doesn't look like the MJO in phases 8/1, at the end of this month, will do it:

http://www.cpc.ncep....IVAR/emon.shtml

http://raleighwx.ame...nagt1Phase4.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...nagt1Phase5.gif

I miss El Nino

[earthlight]

I miss El Nino

This is going to take a lot of patience as far as a complete pattern flip. I do believe it's going to happen, but those who were ready for this thing to flip on Thanksgiving are going to need to throw in the towel.

The MJO and EPO won't cooperate until, at the very earliest, the first week in December. Even after this point, the blocking will need to be established and the pacific and atlantic need to respond. Which leaves us around the second or third week in December.

Hopefully the MJO doesn't take any longer to propagate through these unfavorable phases.

[earthlight]

It should also be noted that we can produce "something" with a decent (not great) pattern. In this case that would be if the mean trough retrograded to the Gulf of Alaska and we got some higher heights near the Davis Straight. In that case the cold air would not be plentiful throughout north America--but the wavelengths & blocking could still conceivably give us a chance if something was timed well.

[Sundog]

It should also be noted that we can produce "something" with a decent (not great) pattern. In this case that would be if the mean trough retrograded to the Gulf of Alaska and we got some higher heights near the Davis Straight. In that case the cold air would not be plentiful throughout north America--but the wavelengths & blocking could still conceivably give us a chance if something was timed well.

It almost feels like the October snowstorm was the one last hurrah of the previous winter and winters and now we're back to our regularly scheduled programming.

[CoastalWx]

The MJO forecasts imo, are better handled by the EC and even the UKMO.

Don't forget the work that Allan has done too.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

FWIW I think the wavelength change can muck around with the temp composites. For example...phase 6 in December may look different than on the DJF composite.

[earthlight]

The MJO forecasts imo, are better handled by the EC and even the UKMO.

Don't forget the work that Allan has done too.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

FWIW I think the wavelength change can muck around with the temp composites. For example...phase 6 in December may look different than on the DJF composite.

Yeah, I posted yesterday about it. I was surprised, actually, how dramatic the differences were with the changing wavelengths.

Man, it's going to be annoying watching this transpire. I'm sure plenty of people are going to lose their patience.

We'll get there.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, I posted yesterday about it. I was surprised, actually, how dramatic the differences were with the changing wavelengths.

Man, it's going to be annoying watching this transpire. I'm sure plenty of people are going to lose their patience.

We'll get there.

Like watching paint dry. I'll give it 2-3 more weeks before we may have a concern.

[SnowGoose69]

It should also be noted that we can produce "something" with a decent (not great) pattern. In this case that would be if the mean trough retrograded to the Gulf of Alaska and we got some higher heights near the Davis Straight. In that case the cold air would not be plentiful throughout north America--but the wavelengths & blocking could still conceivably give us a chance if something was timed well.

the 12/14/03 thumping event occurred in a horrendous Pac dominated +EPO pattern. Thats about the best sort of events you'll get with this sort of setup...you need a well timed arctic high to cut across far southern Canada or northern New England and then some sort of upper disturbance to eject out of the SW trough and you can get a snow event. 12/28/90 also occurred in a similar bad pattern as did 1/11/91, so right there was 2 events in a 3 week span.

[Stormlover74]

And 4, 5 days out all forecasts were for a rainstorm and temps in the 40s. Joe B was calling for a snowstorm in NYC and I recall thinking he was nuts (which he still may be but not for that reason).

the 12/14/03 thumping event occurred in a horrendous Pac dominated +EPO pattern. Thats about the best sort of events you'll get with this sort of setup...you need a well timed arctic high to cut across far southern Canada or northern New England and then some sort of upper disturbance to eject out of the SW trough and you can get a snow event. 12/28/90 also occurred in a similar bad pattern as did 1/11/91, so right there was 2 events in a 3 week span.

[Weathergun]

the 12/14/03 thumping event occurred in a horrendous Pac dominated +EPO pattern. Thats about the best sort of events you'll get with this sort of setup...you need a well timed arctic high to cut across far southern Canada or northern New England and then some sort of upper disturbance to eject out of the SW trough and you can get a snow event. 12/28/90 also occurred in a similar bad pattern as did 1/11/91, so right there was 2 events in a 3 week span.

Yeah, we can still get significant snow events, in a bad or ok pattern, if the timing is works at right. But it's far less likely and it's not something I would really trust the models with handling more than 3 or 4 days out. Also a bad winter pattern is usually worse for the coastal areas, than the inland areas.

[KEITH L.I]

Don'[t mind this weather for November..why freeze your butt off when it won't snow anyway?..If it's like hthis a month from now with no change of pattern in sight..yea i'll be worried..i never thought November was a a indicator..even early Dec..most of our classic winters crank up starting around Christmas or so..77-78 was really snowless until the second week in January..again there are other November's and early Decembers where it's a ice box like 88-89.89-90 ect..and then flips to warm right around Christmas

[earthlight]

Yeah, we can still get significant snow events, in a bad or ok pattern, if the timing is works at right. But it's far less likely and it's not something I would really trust the models with handling more than 3 or 4 days out. Also a bad winter pattern is usually worse for the coastal areas, than the inland areas.

Feb 06 always comes to mind when I think about this. For the most part, a terrible winter (one storm Dec 5) and a terrible pattern surrounding the storm. Then, a PNA spike and a well timed transient block ..and boom. Three days later it was melted.

[Stormlover74]

A good pattern doesn't guarantee us snowstorms either. Remember 2010 people were calling for a great March and instead we torched and winter was over. Last year winter was supposed to take a break and make a comeback in mid to late feb and that never happened either. Everything needs to come together perfectly to get a repeat of Dec'10-Jan'11 or Feb '10.

Yeah, we can still get significant snow events, in a bad or ok pattern, if the timing is works at right. But it's far less likely and it's not something I would really trust the models with handling more than 3 or 4 days out. Also a bad winter pattern is usually worse for the coastal areas, than the inland areas.

[earthlight]

The GEFS now has a very robust blocking signature over the Davis Straight and Western Greenland in two weeks.

[Weathergun]

Feb 06 always comes to mind when I think about this. For the most part, a terrible winter (one storm Dec 5) and a terrible pattern surrounding the storm. Then, a PNA spike and a well timed transient block ..and boom. Three days later it was melted.

For rhe October snowstorm, we also had transient block near Quebec and we also had a transient ridge out west. Yeah, those are kind features that can get easily overlooked, in bad pattern overall.

[forkyfork]

The GEFS now has a very robust blocking signature over the Davis Straight and Western Greenland in two weeks.

that block is useless if there's a black hole over alaska... winter is toast. remember how the vortex never died in 06/07?

[easternsnowman]

Don'[t mind this weather for November..why freeze your butt off when it won't snow anyway?..If it's like hthis a month from now with no change of pattern in sight..yea i'll be worried..i never thought November was a a indicator..even early Dec..most of our classic winters crank up starting around Christmas or so..77-78 was really snowless until the second week in January..again there are other November's and early Decembers where it's a ice box like 88-89.89-90 ect..and then flips to warm right around Christmas

Novembers have warmed more than any other month. I've heard other mets say also that november is not a good indicator of what winter will bring.

[Isotherm]

the 12/14/03 thumping event occurred in a horrendous Pac dominated +EPO pattern. Thats about the best sort of events you'll get with this sort of setup...you need a well timed arctic high to cut across far southern Canada or northern New England and then some sort of upper disturbance to eject out of the SW trough and you can get a snow event. 12/28/90 also occurred in a similar bad pattern as did 1/11/91, so right there was 2 events in a 3 week span.

Looked that one up on Ray's site as I had no recollection whatsoever of a mid dec event in 2003. Sure enough, we only picked up 1" in CNJ. Most of the SW flow events in a poor pattern tend to produce for NW NJ and New England, screwing NYC southward.