When issuing forecasts to the public...

[weatherwiz]

When would you use words like "historic" or "catastrophic" when issuing forecasts or talking to the general public? Or at what point would you use those words, or something similar?

I ask this b/c I feel this is an extremely important situation to touch base on. After talking with some people the past few days the generalization I got is nobody really believed any of the forecasts. My boss at work today said he didn't think it would be bad until he saw limbs falling in his yard. I told him on Friday I think 8-12'' for northern CT and he didn't believe it.

Anyways I understand for this system given the time of year it was hard to buy this type of solution but the fact is by the time many people (mainly us) realized what was going to transpire it was really too late for the public to really prepare.

[N. OF PIKE]

When would you use words like "historic" or "catastrophic" when issuing forecasts or talking to the general public? Or at what point would you use those words, or something similar?

I ask this b/c I feel this is an extremely important situation to touch base on. After talking with some people the past few days the generalization I got is nobody really believed any of the forecasts. My boss at work today said he didn't think it would be bad until he saw limbs falling in his yard. I told him on Friday I think 8-12'' for northern CT and he didn't believe it.

Anyways I understand for this system given the time of year it was hard to buy this type of solution but the fact is by the time many people (mainly us) realized what was going to transpire it was really too late for the public to really prepare.

i think some of the public uses the "i didn't believe it crap...." just to cover themselves for their lazyiness or lack of understanding how do to prep for a storm. for lots of peope they can be slapped in the face with the storm forecast tatoo'd across their cheek....and that won't motivate them to physically make the correct preperations...they would rather sit on the couch watchin tmz .

[Ginx snewx]

A very interesting topic Wiz and one I am sure the pros and their bosses struggle with. When forecasting an historic high impact event at what time should the trigger be pulled? Not discussing a 20 inch snowstorm in January but rather a high impact societal changing storm. These storms are rare and it would seem to me that forecasting an historical storm would require the forecasters to take more chances and go for broke. Even if they bust preparations were made and lessons learned. I know all the forecasters I read were convinced very early on last week that this storm would, because of the time of year, be an immense societal impact storm. Perhaps because of the real worries about busting the message was not delivered hard and quick enough for folks to not blow it off. As with every storm lessons are learned, hopefully with this storm one lesson can be that when given hard science consistently early on forecasters need to go full out and make sure their message is heard and understood loud and clear much earlier than normal. Some forecasters did a fantastic job in our state on Friday stressing the high impact of the storm but I have seen much much wider coverage on lesser storms. Local radio stations for example were saying chance of snow on Sat morning with no real emergent message. I would love to have all TV and Radio stations be forced to announce and read all NWS warnings in their county. Tough decisions sometimes require taking the bull by the horns. It is obvious people are not really prepared so the need to stress the historic storms earlier is probably a good idea.

Thursday afternoon I sent this out to all of our staff and to our emergency management team.

Never in our weather history has our region been threatened with such an early intense snowstorm. With the time of year and the warm waters that surround us, usually we are impacted by strong rain storms. Unfortunately this year of crazy weather has again raised its head for our neck of the woods. Starting Saturday we are under the gun for a very strong winter type storm. Those who live close to the water will see less snow but much more wind. The potential for extended power outages is real. Talking with multiple Professional meteorologists over the last few days it is readily apparent that this storm has the potential to be a high impact storm. The further inland and the higher in elevation you are the more likely significant snow accumulation will occur. Right now these are the best guesses from the folks I talk with. Prudence is advised to all. Perhaps some end up with a windy rainstorm while others are in near blizzard conditions. Because this has never happened before Meteorologists are skeptical and conservative in their public forecasts, behind the scenes however there are real concerns. Just wanted to give all a heads up.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Great posts ESP Steves

Did anyone give you grief?

[wxeyeNH]

I believe the Tropical Prediction Center issued a discussion for Katrina and talked about life threatening conditions etc. It was the most extremely worded public warning I had ever read. Just tried to find it but couldn't

[Ginx snewx]

Great posts ESP Steves

Did anyone give you grief?

No not at all they know that I do not hype to them, on here of course we do but publically not at all. I did get a lot of what???? type emails. I am going to have to look back but I am pretty sure homeland security did not start their process of sending out bulletins until late mid afternoon Friday which to me was too late. The timing of the storm was awful as the weekend was here and everyone was home so the normal dessimination process was slowed. We closed early Sat by my decision when I saw NYC flip to snow. Everyone thanked me because those living North and West ran into the rain snow line and just beat the nightmares on the highways that followed. A great deal of our staff live in NCT.

[Ginx snewx]

I believe the Tropical Prediction Center issued a discussion for Katrina and talked about life threatening conditions etc. It was the most extremely worded public warning I had ever read. Just tried to find it but couldn't

that was the most epic statement ever written , that was by the Mets in NO, a hurricane local statement.

[Snow Bow]

that was the most epic statement ever written , that was by the Mets in NO, a hurricane local statement.

This has to be it?

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED....HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTEDSTRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. ATLEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALLFAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELYDAMAGED OR DESTROYED.THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOODFRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETEBLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOMEWALL AND ROOF FAILURE.HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...AFEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCHAS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLESAND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATEADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THEWINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWNAND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERINGINCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLYTHE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEWCROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BEKILLED.AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEARHURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARECERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTUREOUTSIDE!

[NECT]

that was the most epic statement ever written , that was by the Mets in NO, a hurricane local statement.

I remember reading that as people prepared to ride it out. From wikipedia...

000

WWUS74 KLIX 281550

NPWLIX

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED

STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT

LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL

FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY

DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.

PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD

FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE

BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME

WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A

FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH

AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES

AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE

ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE

WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN

AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING

INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY

THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW

CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE

KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR

HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE

CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE

OUTSIDE!

[HoarfrostHubb]

La epic to be sure

I wonder how many were killed in Katrina due to winds? Mostly flooding, no)

[weatherMA]

It's hard to use that in a storm like this especially. People don't really have a good handle on climo so if the mets were going balls to the wall and calling this "historic" and "once in a lifetime" on Friday, there still would have been people saying they blew the call in places around here and W of Boston and east of Worcester...where the totals ranged from 1" to 10" from east to west. The public in general would probably be like 10"? Historic?

I think it's reasonable to throw the term around here, and maybe even the CT area because of the greater damage in that area, but if the term was ever thrown around in the Boston metro stations I don't think it would have been good.

[powderfreak]

Catch 22... you're screwed if you do, screwed if you don't. Big, historic storms are usually a lose-lose for all involved except the weenies.

[weatherMA]

Catch 22... you're screwed if you do, screwed if you don't. Big, historic storms are usually a lose-lose for all involved except the weenies.

Yup...win/win for us though.

[ineedsnow]

they should have used words like historic and showed pictures of buffalo from a couple years back! Then maybe they would have got the hint a little better!

[powderfreak]

Yup...win/win for us though.

Ha yeah, what would we ever have to talk about if big, damaging, historic storms never occurred?

But 99% of the public would be content with day after day of forecasts for Partly Sunny, high near 70F. Then they are content and the mets are always right.

[Ginx snewx]

Catch 22... you're screwed if you do, screwed if you don't. Big, historic storms are usually a lose-lose for all involved except the weenies.

oversimplified in this case, we are talking about history, societal impact, time of year, destruction potential. How exactly are they screwed if they bust? The Irene floods in VT , ya think the extreme wording saved lives, I do. So that if that warning did not happen would people have died, yes, if the flood did not come who would have lost exactly?

[powderfreak]

oversimplified in this case, we are talking about history, societal impact, time of year, destruction potential. How exactly are they screwed if they bust? The Irene floods in VT , ya think the extreme wording saved lives, I do. So that if that warning did not happen would people have died, yes, if the flood did not come who would have lost exactly?

If the flood did not come the Mets lose badly... folks do not like being scared for no reason. Honestly I do not remember the Irene Floods in VT having wording ahead of time that lived up to the destruction. Those warnings hit the wind and power outages pretty hard first, and the flooding was second in the statement. In hindsight the wind was nothing and the flooding biblical.

My problem with using historic and catastrophic and other catch phrases us weenies love in public forecasts and statements is that we see too much model data (as weather enthusiasts). At what point can you use that language and how much model support do you need? There's always going to be that one model that shows the "worst case scenario"... the TyphoonTip scenario. We always seem to remember the models that give us the most snow, or the most destructive wind, or the best shear and have a tendency to base our forecasts on that "what if" scenario. That's the CT_Blizz school of forecasting. I'm saying its a catch 22 because this past storm could have ended up like the GFS with a heavy snow above 1,000ft but a 35-39F rain/snow mix below that. Obviously we know that isn't what happened but hind-sight is 20-20.

What happens when you use all this wording and then the NOGAPS scores the coup with a storm moving 100 miles SE out to sea? Day in and day out, the conservative forecast often wins, much to the dismay of the weenies. When to pull the plug and go balls to the walls is very, very difficult.

And I agree with weatherMA, that if the Boston area mets used that strong language, there is a huge population inside of 128 that would've wondered what the hell they were talking about.

[ORH_wxman]

If the flood did not come the Mets lose badly... folks do not like being scared for no reason. Honestly I do not remember the Irene Floods in VT having wording ahead of time that lived up to the destruction. Those warnings hit the wind and power outages pretty hard first, and the flooding was second in the statement. In hindsight the wind was nothing and the flooding biblical.

My problem with using historic and catastrophic and other catch phrases us weenies love in public forecasts and statements is that we see too much model data (as weather enthusiasts). At what point can you use that language and how much model support do you need? There's always going to be that one model that shows the "worst case scenario"... the TyphoonTip scenario. We always seem to remember the models that give us the most snow, or the most destructive wind, or the best shear and have a tendency to base our forecasts on that "what if" scenario. That's the CT_Blizz school of forecasting. I'm saying its a catch 22 because this past storm could have ended up like the GFS with a heavy snow above 1,000ft but a 35-39F rain/snow mix below that. Obviously we know that isn't what happened but hind-sight is 20-20.

What happens when you use all this wording and then the NOGAPS scores the coup with a storm moving 100 miles SE out to sea? Day in and day out, the conservative forecast often wins, much to the dismay of the weenies. When to pull the plug and go balls to the walls is very, very difficult.

And I agree with weatherMA, that if the Boston area mets used that strong language, there is a huge population inside of 128 that would've wondered what the hell they were talking about.

There was no reason not to go balls to the wall in the interior. Inside of Route 128, it would be made clear that it was more on the fence...but anyone in the interior at all elevations could be warned. By Friday night, it was going to be almost impossible for it not to be a huge disastrous impact for much of the interior. Even the most benign models had like 1-1.25 of qpf of wet snow and none of them had temps warm enough to be mostly rain...even the warm GFS at the sfc was still spitting out like 5" of paste for Hartford which is enough for monster damage.

[powderfreak]

There was no reason not to go balls to the wall in the interior. Inside of Route 128, it would be made clear that it was more on the fence...but anyone in the interior at all elevations could be warned. By Friday night, it was going to be almost impossible for it not to be a huge disastrous impact for much of the interior. Even the most benign models had like 1-1.25 of qpf of wet snow and none of them had temps warm enough to be mostly rain...even the warm GFS at the sfc was still spitting out like 5" of paste for Hartford which is enough for monster damage.

Where you forecasting for this event? I'm curious as to what the mets on here had and at what time did they go from chance of a big snowstorm to monster damage incoming...

[ORH_wxman]

Where you forecasting for this event? I'm curious as to what the mets on here had and at what time did they go from chance of a big snowstorm to monster damage incoming...

I sent out a courtesy forecast and said it would be historic for the time of the year. My contracts with the dot guys don't obligate me to forecast until november. But I sent one out on thursday night and then again friday night just as a heads up since it was obviously going to be a huge storm.

[wxeyeNH]

As far as last week goes the storm was historic as far as climatology goes but the average Joe does not follow climatology but social impact. I think the NWS could have used the word historic in regards to power outages. Something like "in areas within the Winter Storm Warnings prepare for long lasting and widespread power outages". This storm has the potential to produce near historic power disruptions. " .

[Ginx snewx]

If the flood did not come the Mets lose badly... folks do not like being scared for no reason. Honestly I do not remember the Irene Floods in VT having wording ahead of time that lived up to the destruction. Those warnings hit the wind and power outages pretty hard first, and the flooding was second in the statement. In hindsight the wind was nothing and the flooding biblical.

My problem with using historic and catastrophic and other catch phrases us weenies love in public forecasts and statements is that we see too much model data (as weather enthusiasts). At what point can you use that language and how much model support do you need? There's always going to be that one model that shows the "worst case scenario"... the TyphoonTip scenario. We always seem to remember the models that give us the most snow, or the most destructive wind, or the best shear and have a tendency to base our forecasts on that "what if" scenario. That's the CT_Blizz school of forecasting. I'm saying its a catch 22 because this past storm could have ended up like the GFS with a heavy snow above 1,000ft but a 35-39F rain/snow mix below that. Obviously we know that isn't what happened but hind-sight is 20-20.

What happens when you use all this wording and then the NOGAPS scores the coup with a storm moving 100 miles SE out to sea? Day in and day out, the conservative forecast often wins, much to the dismay of the weenies. When to pull the plug and go balls to the walls is very, very difficult.

And I agree with weatherMA, that if the Boston area mets used that strong language, there is a huge population inside of 128 that would've wondered what the hell they were talking about.

Please reread my post,when overwhelming scientific data points to historic conditions then it is time to pull the trigger. Throwing the word weenies out here does not address the functional issue. Extreme events call for extreme warnings. There was not one Pro disagreeing, as Will said , it was obvious it going to have a huge societal impact. The Mets lose nothing iMO either, busted forecasts happen but when the data is so strong it is easy to explain why you chose to make a decision, public safety ranks high above Met ego.

[weatherMA]

As far as last week goes the storm was historic as far as climatology goes but the average Joe does not follow climatology but social impact. I think the NWS could have used the word historic in regards to power outages. Something like "in areas within the Winter Storm Warnings prepare for long lasting and widespread power outages". This storm has the potential to produce near historic power disruptions. " .

Exactly, this is the key.

Please reread my post,when overwhelming scientific data points to historic conditions then it is time to pull the trigger. Throwing the word weenies out here does not address the functional issue. Extreme events call for extreme warnings. There was not one Pro disagreeing, as Will said , it was obvious it going to have a huge societal impact. The Mets lose nothing iMO either, busted forecasts happen but when the data is so strong it is easy to explain why you chose to make a decision, public safety ranks high above Met ego.

Yeah but there was no reason to throw the term historic around in Boston metro. In CT, Springfield markets, sure. Boston, nah.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah but there was no reason to throw the term historic around in Boston metro. In CT, Springfield markets, sure. Boston, nah.

Well the LWM-FIT-ORH triangle is in the Boston market and it was appropriate to use historic there. The worst power outages east of the River in MA were actually in the 495 belt from about Lowell/Chelmford/Dracut to Hudson/Marlborough well within the Boston market.

[weatherwiz]

Great responses so far!

I understand the need to play things conservative 99% of the time b/c if you go all out every time and use certain words too often people are not really going to believe you. I know after Irene many people I've talked to said the entire storm was overblown, mainly just b/c they didn't get damage in their yards I suppose. Irene was certainly bad, especially on the coastline but from the vibes on here that's what the consensus seemed to be. Sure the winds were a bit overplayed inland but I have a feeling after what happened, or didn't happen with Irene that lead many people not to take this seriously.

Anyways though there are certain times when a forecast needs to be basically all out and those certain words (catastrophic, devastation, widespread damage, etc) need to be used and they need to be stressed. Fortunately there were some mets, both in the public and online here that did a TERRIFIC job with this. The one thing to understand to is many people did not believe that this would happen. Sure there may be nothing to change that, however, like someone mentioned above this is where you need to show pictures and video of other areas of the country that had something similar.

[weatherMA]

Well the LWM-FIT-ORH triangle is in the Boston market and it was appropriate to use historic there. The worst power outages east of the River in MA were actually in the 495 belt from about Lowell/Chelmford/Dracut to Hudson/Marlborough well within the Boston market.

Yeah that is true. The problem is 80% of probably probably live near and inside of 128. Ideally, I agree that it could have been mentioned for those areas and the ORH hills. Again though, without knowledge of climo, they may think that the 8" they got was not historic, even with the power outages. It's a lose-lose as powderfreak said.

[Ginx snewx]

Exactly, this is the key.

Yeah but there was no reason to throw the term historic around in Boston metro. In CT, Springfield markets, sure. Boston, nah.

Was not talking about specific markets but geographic areas.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah that is true. The problem is 80% of probably probably live near and inside of 128. Ideally, I agree that it could have been mentioned for those areas and the ORH hills. Again though, without knowledge of climo, they may think that the 8" they got was not historic, even with the power outages. It's a lose-lose as powderfreak said.

How is it lose lose? How about verbage that says , prepare for a week without power, temperatures will be very cold for this time of year, this potentially could be a life threatening storm, please take heed. How do I lose if I prepare and it does not happen ? I actually win because when it does happen the next time I am already prepared, not following this lose, lose stuff, egos and hurt feeling because of a bust versus public safety?

[weatherMA]

How is it lose lose? How about verbage that says , prepare for a week without power, temperatures will be very cold for this time of year, this potentially could be a life threatening storm, please take heed. How do I lose if I prepare and it does not happen ? I actually win because when it does happen the next time I am already prepared, not following this lose, lose stuff, egos and hurt feeling because of a bust versus public safety?

The problem is, not everyone thinks like you. Most people would be pissed that the forecast busted and say that mets were hyping it as usual.

I agree that it is better to bust when giving warning for what could happen, but the public doesn't think the same way.

[ORH_wxman]

How is it lose lose? How about verbage that says , prepare for a week without power, temperatures will be very cold for this time of year, this potentially could be a life threatening storm, please take heed. How do I lose if I prepare and it does not happen ? I actually win because when it does happen the next time I am already prepared, not following this lose, lose stuff, egos and hurt feeling because of a bust versus public safety?

I would have said that it would be a particularly dangerous situation beyond Rt 128...that way people in the 128 belt and inside it wouldn't get confused to think its them. I think most people knew 6-8" of wet snow on foliated trees was not normal and historic in nature....esp when 400,000 of them lost power (that was the number of outages by national grid in the state which does mostly Boston metro out to ORH county...western MA is mostly a diff company).

As always, have to be careful with the wording and letting people know that right in the immediate Boston area, they would likely be spared to some extent.