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The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

TalcottWx

By TalcottWx,
in New England

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Posted
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You really have a way with words, Ray, in all seriousness. Do you ever consider writing for a career or have worked with it professionally?

Yes the pattern is certainly interesting from a "Wow, it's cool the atmosphere is doing this in a strong Niña...I wonder what's causing it to be so radical" but I ultimately measure the winter by how much snow falls, how much snow cover accumulates, and how cold it is. We're only doing well in the last category so far.

I probably could ultimately make a living in that manner because I'm pretty cretative, but TBH it takes a tremendous amount of time and work to launch a viable career in that arena and I lack the ambition and patience to do so; not to mention that only a very small percentage of folks who do delve into that arena are ever able to reap much financial gain from it.

I'll either end up in business with a friend and\or working for the state once some of my dad's political connections cease to be negated by hiring freezes.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
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Is that a Miller B forming D7 or is it going to get suppressed?

Whatever it is, it could easily be rain because the Day 7 ECM shows 850mb temps in the +1C range or so. We'd actually need the storm to bomb out in the perfect spot to deliver snow after spending 2 days with 850s near -20Cgun_bandana.gifThe -NAO just overwhelms us with crappy maritime air like the end of last winter. Unreal the damage this thing is doing, especially to Maine. Honestly, get it out of there and let the Pacific flex its muscles.

That's right, the retrograding ULL would be rain in Maine and so could the storm after...oh the irony.

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Sub 980mb well S of the benchmark at 228h...it gives us about 2-3" of snow because of the broad circulation...but if that was north a few ticks, we'd get hammered. Its out over the ocean, so Ray doesn't have to worry about watching the M.A. get buried from it while we are getting scraps. Our area is actually one of the few that sees something from it. SE VA might do well, but their temps are extremely marginal.

At any rate, so far out not be worried about it. But there's something to watch anyway.

I've reached the point where I have no desire to take so much as a cursory glance at any piece of guidance until I glean from this board that a viable threat has ruptured the day 3 hymen.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Whatever it is, it could easily be rain because the Day 7 ECM shows 850mb temps in the +1C range or so. We'd actually need the storm to bomb out in the perfect spot to deliver snow after spending 2 days with 850s near -20Cgun_bandana.gifThe -NAO just overwhelms us with crappy maritime air like the end of last winter. Unreal the damage this thing is doing, especially to Maine. Honestly, get it out of there and let the Pacific flex its muscles.

That's right, the retrograding ULL would be rain in Maine and so could the storm after...oh the irony.

No, it cools quite quickly after that. Check out 216h. Its harder this time of the year to see marine puke last long, because despite the block, there is some cryosphere regeneration in Quebec because of how short the days are...its not March 1st anymore in this setup.

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nzucker

nzucker

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No, it cools quite quickly after that. Check out 216h. Its harder this time of the year to see marine puke last long, because despite the block, there is some cryosphere regeneration in Quebec because of how short the days are...its not March 1st anymore in this setup.

Yeah but we have to thread the needle....if the storm tracks any closer to the coast, we're probably cooked. Pretty sad that this -NAO block has actually warmed us up from -18C to +1C at 850mb. There's just no cold air to tap anywhere...it's all stuck behind the stupid GoA low or blasted to Siberia.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Yeah but we have to thread the needle....if the storm tracks any closer to the coast, we're probably cooked. Pretty sad that this -NAO block has actually warmed us up from -18C to +1C at 850mb. There's just no cold air to tap anywhere...it's all stuck behind the stupid GoA low or blasted to Siberia.

-4C 850s are good enough for me....I can do without -30C 850s and a January 2004 repeat...as much of a fetish that month is down in your region.

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nzucker

nzucker

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This.

Well I agree but I don't want to be starting a storm at +1C or +2C and then hope it bombs like an April 1997. Pattern continue to looks crappy to mediocre for the LR. We just can't get the timing/placement right with the NAO and the PAC won't give us a break. Oh well, I thought this was going to be a pretty dry winter so not too surprised.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Well I agree but I don't want to be starting a storm at +1C or +2C and then hope it bombs like an April 1997. Pattern continue to looks crappy to mediocre for the LR. We just can't get the timing/placement right with the NAO and the PAC won't give us a break. Oh well, I thought this was going to be a pretty dry winter so not too surprised.

The PAC being favorable wouldn't do crap for us...all it would change is that maybe the M.A. would get in on a storm threat with a further south digging northern stream trough and dumping more frigid air into the CONUS....the Atlantic is clearly controlling our (NE) pattern in the medium range with a block like that.

I can do without a SECS/MECS for the M.A. while we are dry. Our hope is that the vortex lifts to the northeast a bit sooner than currently advertised and we see some form of redeveloping OH Valley system to hit us....or we luck out on a retrograde storm.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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You've got it.

I think I have a sickness picking out snow events based on pics....I even picked out this completely forgettable event

http://www.americanw...this-snowstorm/

I was going to guess April '97 at first for your pic, but it looked too powdery to be April '97. I also know you would have never put a pic of PDII in your avatar (like from Boston or something...since I know your area didn't get as much) or Dec '03.

You don't think highly enough of Mar 2001 to put a pic on there even though you cracked 20".

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I think I have a sickness picking out snow events based on pics....I even picked out this completely forgettable event

http://www.americanw...this-snowstorm/

I was going to guess April '97 at first for your pic, but it looked too powdery to be April '97. I also know you would have never put a pic of PDII in your avatar (like from Boston or something...since I know your area didn't get as much) or Dec '03.

You don't think highly enough of Mar 2001 to put a pic on there even though you cracked 20".

Jesus.....you are an absolute robot.

You should have worked for the FBI.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Jesus.....you are an absolute robot.

You should have worked for the FBI.

Lol...well if the FBI ever needs someone to profile a weather fanatic, I'm their man.

I think I have pretty much figured out everyone's weather fetish here. One of these days, I'll have to make a thread with all of our regular posters and list their fetishes next to the name...I think it would be an interesting project. Like for example, we all know Jerry has a big '93-'94 fetish, we know Tip has an exotic solution fetish, etc.

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Lol...well if the FBI ever needs someone to profile a weather fanatic, I'm their man.

I think I have pretty much figured out everyone's weather fetish here. One of these days, I'll have to make a thread with all of our regular posters and list their fetishes next to the name...I think it would be an interesting project. Like for example, we all know Jerry has a big '93-'94 fetish, we know Tip has an exotic solution fetish, etc.

LOL GREAT thread idea.

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

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The PAC being favorable wouldn't do crap for us...all it would change is that maybe the M.A. would get in on a storm threat with a further south digging northern stream trough and dumping more frigid air into the CONUS....the Atlantic is clearly controlling our (NE) pattern in the medium range with a block like that.

I can do without a SECS/MECS for the M.A. while we are dry. Our hope is that the vortex lifts to the northeast a bit sooner than currently advertised and we see some form of redeveloping OH Valley system to hit us....or we luck out on a retrograde storm.

Does the ECM give snow to all of SNE or just eastern sections? This is probably a rhetorical question...:axe:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Does the ECM give snow to all of SNE or just eastern sections? This is probably a rhetorical question...:axe:

No, it actually gives some to your area too...maybe an inch or so. Its not impressive verbatim, but I think it still has some potential. At any rate, I think most of us wouldn't mind a couple inches from it given that we have seen very little so far.

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

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No, it actually gives some to your area too...maybe an inch or so. Its not impressive verbatim, but I think it still has some potential. At any rate, I think most of us wouldn't mind a couple inches from it given that we have seen very little so far.

Oh, cool. Yeah, I would definitely take an inch at this point. :thumbsup: What did you get tonight up there? A coating?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Oh, cool. Yeah, I would definitely take an inch at this point. :thumbsup: What did you get tonight up there? A coating?

Yeah, see the light snow obs thread. We got everything white. But it wasn't measurable...maybe a tenth or two at most...but I'm calling it a trace. I'm not going to inflate. By the look, it almost looks like a half inch or even inch if you wanted to stretch, but so many inflate that when its really only a trace.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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were you looking at point/click forecasts? They're too general..especially in your location where terrain features can influence little microclimates

Both p/c and ZFP temps have been way off for an extended streak at this point.

No, it actually gives some to your area too...maybe an inch or so. Its not impressive verbatim, but I think it still has some potential. At any rate, I think most of us wouldn't mind a couple inches from it given that we have seen very little so far.

I would like those of us who would mind a couple of inches to raise their hands so Will can ban them.

Nice coating of snow out there--congrats, Kevin. I'm pretty sure widespread 1-3 did not occur, but it really is nice to heave a wintry look. I better soak it in while it last. Looks like a minor hope of some front end and very little on the back end if I'm reading things right.

18.0/15.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

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Euro gives an inch or two from the retrograde action between 120-144...potentially more could be had though looking at the synoptic setup. S ME sees more and it looks like it wants to get down into SNE.

Though I'm skittish of retrogrades (once bitten, twice shy), I'm glad there's something possibly in the works for next week. Maybe it'll get more impressive as time goes on.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Nice to see the Euro still has the snow event mid week with giving everyone a couple inches. it's relly latched onto that idea and held..I'll bet we see it increase qpf over the next few days. Will is pretty gung ho on it

Why? Also, the euro's really painting a scenario for eastern areas, right?

16.9/14

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