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Major LES Event

TheWeatherPimp

By TheWeatherPimp,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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London snowsquall

London snowsquall

Posted
Posted

This is the forecast for my hometown, per weather.com. Sounds pretty bad.

Dec 12 TonightOccasional snow showers. Low near 20F. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 1 to 2 inches of snow expected.

Dec 13 TomorrowOccasional snow showers. Very cold. High around 20F. Winds NW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches.

Dec 13 Tomorrow nightBlustery with snow showers. Low 14F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches.

Here's the Accuweather forecast:

Tonight Cloudy, becoming windier, blowing snow and colder with some snow, accumulating 1-2" Low 17.

Monday Mostly cloudy, windy and colder with some snow, accumulating an additional 6-10 inches High 25.

Monday night Overcast, windy and cold with snow showers, accumulating an additional 1-2 inches Low 14.

Seems you and I both need NW winds to get the good stuff...........

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Very heavy snow here currently...

Decided to make a trip to the gas station. Only about 2 miles away and the whole trip took 45 minutes. I think they pulled the plows, because the roads are drifted over and you can't really decipher between the road and surrounding fields/yards. Of course, I live in a rural area so blowing of snow is going to be a bit worse.

Yikes. Heavier returns seem to be making better progress southward.

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KeenerWx

KeenerWx

Posted
Posted

Yikes. Heavier returns seem to be making better progress southward.

Yep. With visibilities reduced to well under 1/2 mile and the roads so drifted over you couldn't see what was road/what was a field, that's what happens. Doesn't help that we have irrigation ditches on either side of the road that can be 6 ft or more deep. Definitely didn't want to risk going into that.

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

BUF was talking about a 30:1 ratio or greater in their AFD this morning.

So, what would that be, 43" for Newburgh Heights per the BUF WRF? :lightning:

What is your take on that model? It seems to develop a strong Huron connection band through the west side of Cuyahoga County around 1am, slowly bringing it just past downtown by 11am.

QPF aside, it was just 5 days ago that downtown was able to get 10-12" from just a 40 mile fetch on westerly winds.

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WNYLakeEffect

WNYLakeEffect

Posted
Posted

Latest local run from BUF for those in the Eastern Lakes. This would be a remarkable event if it unfolds.

post-599-0-55242000-1292193310.gif

From my experience with the BUF mesos, they

a)overdo QPF

b.)sometimes have a SE bias; seems much more prevalent in WNWly to WSWly events

c)are very useful with band placement when the SE bias is accounted for

They didn't do very well here in WNY with the last event. They didn't pick up on the strip of 30-60" in Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties as well as they could of (to be fair, the NAM didn't either), but did do better in western Chautauqua county.

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

From my experience with the BUF mesos, they

a)overdo QPF

b.)sometimes have a SE bias; seems much more prevalent in WNWly to WSWly events

c)are very useful with band placement when the SE bias is accounted for

They didn't do very well here in WNY with the last event. They didn't pick up on the strip of 30-60" in Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties as well as they could of (to be fair, the NAM didn't either), but did do better in western Chautauqua county.

I assumed the QPF is overdone. I'm mostly interested in band placement. It appears both the 18z models that are out in BUF want a band right through the heart of Cleveland again, which would be right at the Monday morning rush hour. This is northerly flow, so not sure how a SE bias would play in band placement. Even accounting for some wobble in either direction of a band, someone in metro Cleveland is going to be wollopped tomorrow.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

From my experience with the BUF mesos, they

a)overdo QPF

b.)sometimes have a SE bias; seems much more prevalent in WNWly to WSWly events

c)are very useful with band placement when the SE bias is accounted for

They didn't do very well here in WNY with the last event. They didn't pick up on the strip of 30-60" in Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties as well as they could of (to be fair, the NAM didn't either), but did do better in western Chautauqua county.

Just popping in....The mesos out of BUF really have done wonderful the last few years, IMO. It tends to go a bit on the high side wrt QPF when connections are made. I concur, that it "seems" anyway (no research on my part) to have a slight SE (I think you mean SW bias) wrt 260-300 events. Tends to slightly overplay the frictional convergence zone generated by the souther shoreline. But that is just speculation.

This last event it was decent...although the last "pulse up" had a band forming over N. Onondaga county (me) and it ended up forming about 15 miles south and southwest, relative to my position.

SUNY Stonybrook has it's hits and misses, but it seems to actually do better (during similar timeframes as the output of the mesos at BUF) on westerly flow events....(again, from my experience with them).

Good luck to all in the belts, across all the GL's!!!!!!! Pile on the fake stuff!!!! ;):snowman: :snowman: :snowman:

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Here's IND's latest aviation discussion regarding the lake snow.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR WILL BE PREVAILING AT MOST OF THE SITES FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH TEMPORARY BUMPS UP TO MVFR OR DOWN TO LIFR. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL START OUT GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KTS AND THIS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND GUSTS DURING THE DAY DROPPING BACK TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON AT KHUF THROUGH AROUND 3Z AND KBMG THROUGH 6Z. LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE LONGER AT KLAF AND KIND...FOR 9 TO 12 HOURS.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

How far south do you think the LE will make it into Indiana Hoosier? KIND mentions Muncie may see 6+ and Im just about 40 miles due west of them.

Very far. The best area over the next several hours should be roughly along/east of I-65 all the way from Gary toward Indianapolis. It will gradually move east with time. LES is always difficult but I could see somebody in the northern cwa walking away with amounts close to that.

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Chagrin Falls

Chagrin Falls

Posted
Posted

What is your take on that model? It seems to develop a strong Huron connection band through the west side of Cuyahoga County around 1am, slowly bringing it just past downtown by 11am.

QPF aside, it was just 5 days ago that downtown was able to get 10-12" from just a 40 mile fetch on westerly winds.

I looked at the two BUF WRF-NAM outputs from 18Z and the Canadian GEM from 18Z. Also looked at the BUF AFD and CLE AFD (which I found "typical") along with the BKL LAMP MOS. I see no reason to go against the WRF forecast. It looks likely a strong Huron connection band will develop after 06Z and continue through at least most of the day Monday as the NNW wind increases and cold air advection drives down temperatures into the teens.

Wherever the band forms there will be a lot of snow.

I would emphasize again that I think CLE's handling of this is "typical". Perhaps they are waiting for the band to form, I'm not sure...but every numerical output I see show a strong Huron connection is likely with very strong cold air advection.

Perhaps the NWS will find a blizzard warning will be appropriate. If I was a duty forecaster I would certainly at least consider it.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

First lake effect snow warning for southern Ontario just went up for Sarnia on the border across from Port Huron, Michigan. 

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 7:09 PM EST SUNDAY 12 DECEMBER 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SNOW SQUALL WARNING FOR:
=NEW= LAMBTON COUNTY 

     ..SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.

     SNOW SQUALLS ARE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER LAMBTON
     COUNTY AND WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT.  LOCALLY 20 CENTIMETRES OF
     SNOW MAY FALL TONIGHT.  SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
     INTO MONDAY.

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WNYLakeEffect

WNYLakeEffect

Posted
Posted

I concur, that it "seems" anyway (no research on my part) to have a slight SE (I think you mean SW bias) wrt

Yeah...that what happens when I multitask...<_<

This looks like quite the event for you guys. Correct me if I'm wrong, but besides the other day, I don't think the immediate city's actually gotten in on a big storm since Apr 2007?

Best of luck tomorrow!

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