LizardMafia Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I will take what the 12z NAM is selling, pretty close to the dry slot.. I think ChicagoWX and Hoosier wouldn't disagree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 so jb updates.....says it's his first missed day in 5 years and had to do with preparing the long range forecast. No mention of the storm going further north then he thought, in fact, he says 'no changes to my idea'.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 so jb updates.....says it's his first missed day in 5 years and had to do with preparing the long range forecast. No mention of the storm going further north then he thought, in fact, he says 'no changes to my idea'.... lol Still a blizzard for parts of i 80? I think thats what he said 5 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Sometimes a blind squirrel has trouble finding his nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Still a blizzard for parts of i 80? I think thats what he said 5 days ago no specifics....just no changes to his idea. very jb-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 This is the area to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Is it in anyway possible that the ukmet verifies? Haven't been on here long and I guess you could call me a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Looks at surface low progression and pressure falls it seems as though the NAM is on the right track to far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Is it in anyway possible that the ukmet verifies? Haven't been on here long and I guess you could call me a weenie. Sure looks to me like the table is being set for a low to move into the Nebraska area and head ENE from there with conditions ripe for strengthening, I'd put the Ukie in the incredible long shot box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Is it in anyway possible that the ukmet verifies? Haven't been on here long and I guess you could call me a weenie. Anything is possible still at this point. I would not bet on it though.. btw here is the differences between the last run and 12z UK.. Not really that much change.. Thus one small reason to keep it in the back of the mind i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Looks at surface low progression and pressure falls it seems as though the NAM is on the right track to far. Greatest falls now centered around north platte nebraska, which is just south of where the GFS takes the low out of minnesota, granted they don't indicate exact track but they're both doing ok for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Alek- what are you thinking right now this thing gonna dip a little more south or head straight over the top of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Alek- what are you thinking right now this thing gonna dip a little more south or head straight over the top of me I think it will pass somewhere between both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 me Sure looks to me like the table is being set for a low to move into the Nebraska area and head ENE from there with conditions ripe for strengthening, I'd put the Ukie in the incredible long shot box. Yea thats where I am confused. The canadian takes ot more east and little south. GFS takes it due east a little north once it strenghtens just east of detroit. RGEM is similar to the canadian 48 hours out. Only the NAM is taking it NE which seems more common sense. If the GFS Canadian RGEM verify, thats .75+ of precip in SW and central michigan. Thats WSW criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 This is the area to watch. Just a brief correction, what you have circled is a plume associated with the jet stream and possibly part of a lee wave cloud. The actual shortwave trough initiating cyclogenesis is in MT. The strong upward/down VV couplet can be seen right now in western MT into ID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromartie Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 12z GFS is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Just a brief correction, what you have circled is a plume associated with the jet stream and possibly part of a lee wave cloud. The actual shortwave trough initiating cyclogenesis is in MT. The strong upward/down VV couplet can be seen right now in western MT into ID. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 ggem has come a little south....the 500 is now in southern IN and the low is around ft.wayne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well the canadian certainly will not help clarify anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Becoming quite clear. Higher res models able to better simulate mesoscale forcings and intense cyclogenesis track farther NW and slower, lower res guidance tracks farther S and faster. Still leaning towards high res NAM/SREF guidance. EURO, as the highest res global model, will be telling when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Becoming quite clear. Higher res models able to better simulate mesoscale forcings and intense cyclogenesis track farther NW and slower, lower res guidance tracks farther S and faster. Still leaning towards high res NAM/SREF guidance. EURO, as the highest res global model, will be telling when it comes out. It will be interesting after the event passes to go back and look and see how everything played out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Becoming quite clear. Higher res models able to better simulate mesoscale forcings and intense cyclogenesis track farther NW and slower, lower res guidance tracks farther S and faster. Still leaning towards high res NAM/SREF guidance. EURO, as the highest res global model, will be telling when it comes out. Is there any chance the low tracks farther south, like Northern or Central Illinois, but still slow like the further NW tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 15Z HPC surface analysis is in. Trough axis through SD a smidgen N of the GFS/NAM at 15Z. Doesn't mean a ton yet since rapid cyclogenesis won't start for another 6+ hours, but worth noting. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 GFS ens mean: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12024.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12036.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Is there any chance the low tracks farther south, like Northern or Central Illinois, but still slow like the further NW tracks? Given what I have analyzed and the forcings present and the model biases, probably not. It will either be farther NW and more intense/slow or weaker and farther S and a tad faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Becoming quite clear. Higher res models able to better simulate mesoscale forcings and intense cyclogenesis track farther NW and slower, lower res guidance tracks farther S and faster. Still leaning towards high res NAM/SREF guidance. EURO, as the highest res global model, will be telling when it comes out. If the GFS/GEM/Ukie/Nogaps/RGEM end up right with a ESE trend, your reputation is not on the line. I read your blog and your a blessing to this community. I just want to get that out there, if I am totally off that is fine and I apologize for this assertion. You are pretty much our teacher here and well respected, exp after the way you handled yourself yesterday. with that said I hope the Jet can dig this thing south enough for me to get in the deformation zone, so I hope in this case you are wrong, carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 GFS ens mean: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12024.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12036.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12048.gif LOT is going to have their hands full this afternoon/evening. I think WWA headlines are in order but maybe i'm being a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 nogaps res sucks but it's somewhere near there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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