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Central PA Fall Thread II


JamieOber

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Euro has a bomb at 240, and some GFS ens are nuts.

Yup. I counted about 4 of the 16 ensemble members that give us a very significant snowstorm. Most of them give us at least a little snow. So, it's definitely worth talking about. :P

The euro at hour 240 thing, while pretty-looking, is not really something I'm putting much stock in now. That's way too specific a detail for even day 5, let alone day 10. :P

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00z GFS has an absolute monster for central and western PA at about 190 HR's out.

Oh wow yea it does, hour 192 has western PA in the midst of what is likely a heavy wet snowstorm. It's even showing up snow on the ptype maps. Given the deepness of the low and the 850 temps snow would likely not be just confined to the Laurels. The coastal storm is very deep this run most likely with the aid of what appears to be some tropical influence coming out of the southeastern Gulf. Pretty long range yet, but models have been making some noise in this timeframe for a few days now.

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‎*** ALERT ***ALERT *** 1TS MAJOR EAST COAST STORM --M.E.C.L---NOW LIKELY -- LIKELY-- to Occur OCT 29-30... WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS from NC to Boston to Maine... HEAVY SNOW a good bet over eastern KY WVA far southeast OH western MD western & central PA Much of western central and Upstate NY... Track will be ALONG the coast from Eastern SC to Boston

DT trigger happy.

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lol. Well the Euro is pure model porn, that's for sure... but run-to-run consistency is terrible and model-to-model consistency even worse. A small shift upstream of any of the key features will make a huge difference in what happens to us down the line, and it's nigh-on impossible to tell now which runs have the right idea.

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I just had a look at last nights European model... wow. You couldn't ask for much more of a classic low placement for central PA to be ground zero for a major snowfall. It also hangs a significant deformation band in central thru 174 and even 180 as the storm lifts up. 925 zero line starts around Harrisburg at 168h, to thru DC and just west of NYC/Philly at 174, and then to the coast at 180. If this Euro solution came to pass it would eventually not matter what elevation you were at in central PA. CTP long term keepin things fairly conservative for time being, mentioning snow possible in higher elevations. CTP Facebook Page actually just posted image of this mornings Euro and a caption. This is going to be really interesting to see if it actually happens, or even if some kind of watered down version of this event happens. Right now I gotta think that what the Euro has is a bit too extreme, and i'd like to see more consistency. That's to be expected at this timeframe. On the other hand, Euro was the one that had the early Oct snowfall pegged pretty well QPF-wise and thermally once the event was a few days out. Speaking of that event, how many of you guys noticed both the NAO and AO were actually in positive territory around the time that happened?

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‎*** ALERT ***ALERT *** 1TS MAJOR EAST COAST STORM --M.E.C.L---NOW LIKELY -- LIKELY-- to Occur OCT 29-30... WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS from NC to Boston to Maine... HEAVY SNOW a good bet over eastern KY WVA far southeast OH western MD western & central PA Much of western central and Upstate NY... Track will be ALONG the coast from Eastern SC to Boston

DT trigger happy.

Where does DT post now?

i dont see anything new on his site?

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Lots of different solutions showing up in the ensembles... there's a very poor handle on just how the details will work out. Unfortunately, though, there is now decent agreement that there won't be an ideal snow solution. Almost all the 18z ensemble members are either too warm, too dry, or both.

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Lots of different solutions showing up in the ensembles... there's a very poor handle on just how the details will work out. Unfortunately, though, there is now decent agreement that there won't be an ideal snow solution. Almost all the 18z ensemble members are either too warm, too dry, or both.

And now the ensembles and models have finally all fallen into reasonable agreement on a solution. The good news is that most show some snow for us as the second baroclinic band swings through (and with the help of some coastal-low development, though it races out to sea quickly). There's also opportunity for some light snow with a secondary vortmax which swings into the trough a couple days later.

Most of the ensembles agree that we won't see a large snowstorm, though. That being said, there are a couple ensemble members that hint at it, and it wouldn't take too big a change in the models for it to turn out that way (though it also wouldn't take too big a change to give us no snow at all). :P

It's at least looking reasonable that we'll get some snow at this point.

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