r-ville Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Just out for a stroll and the breezes and leafs are really excellent tonight. Measured another 2" of rain IMBY in the past 24Hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Picture upload has been making me mad lately, I finally was able to finagle a way to get a few of these up. Happy 2 year anniversary Centre region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 18Z GFS. A guy can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Some gorgeous color on the Turnpike from Sideling Hill to Midway rest stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 OT...but RIP Danny Wheldon. Had the privilege of chatting with him a few times, especially at the Glen and Nazareth. A great guy and driver...thought I'd add this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 OT...but RIP Danny Wheldon. Had the privilege of chatting with him a few times, especially at the Glen and Nazareth. A great guy and driver...thought I'd add this here. Indy was retarded for going to Vegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Indy was retarded for going to Vegas. I agree, what a terrible accident and tragedy. You don't stand much of a chance in an indy car when a Daytona/Talladega style "big one" sends you roof first into the catch fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Woke up this morning to a chill in the air, definitely a sign of things to comes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Well this week's "excitement" sure has been watered down. The day 9-11 range looks quite interesting in recent GFS runs (and in the GFS ensembles), but the Euro disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 So we're headed to Texas tomorrow (I got game 4 world series tickets!), and I'm not sure what to do about our heater. Forecasts tend to all disagree on temps. Anyone think I should turn the heater on and leave it running (well, running when it hits xx degrees inside) or will we be OK without it? We haven't needed it all yet this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Just watched Weather World and they did their long shot segment whereby they use analog techniques to make a long range forecast. The setup uses the fact that more than 70% of named Atlantic storms occurred before Sept. 13 and it's a La Nina year. As a result, they're predicting below average snowfall for PA this winter. Interesting is that one of their outstanding long shots yet to pass is one for a cold and snowy December. So their prediction then is quite below average snowfall for January and February. Paul Knight is the man so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Thinking we escape the brunt of the rain this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffb1124 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Just watched Weather World and they did their long shot segment whereby they use analog techniques to make a long range forecast. The setup uses the fact that more than 70% of named Atlantic storms occurred before Sept. 13 and it's a La Nina year. As a result, they're predicting below average snowfall for PA this winter. Interesting is that one of their outstanding long shots yet to pass is one for a cold and snowy December. So their prediction then is quite below average snowfall for January and February. Paul Knight is the man so we'll see. Let's hope they're as accurate as their long shot prediction was for July (below normal temperatures), we'll have snow on the ground til May, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Just watched Weather World and they did their long shot segment whereby they use analog techniques to make a long range forecast. The setup uses the fact that more than 70% of named Atlantic storms occurred before Sept. 13 and it's a La Nina year. As a result, they're predicting below average snowfall for PA this winter. Interesting is that one of their outstanding long shots yet to pass is one for a cold and snowy December. So their prediction then is quite below average snowfall for January and February. Paul Knight is the man so we'll see. Well, thy're 4 for 6 on those forecasts so we shall see. BTW in the same segment Uncle Paul mentioned that in many of the analog years they used, March had above average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 On the subject of winter outlooks, NOAA just released theirs today. Nothing too bold highlighted for our area, perhaps a bit wetter than average and equal chances temp wise. Cold probs focused over the northern plains and warmer and drier than average continuing to remain where its not needed over Texas and the deep south. When compared to the Accuweather forecast, NOAA's looks pretty similar, albeit a more generalized version without the superlatives...which is to be expected. NOAA does not specifically say in their writeup they have about whether things are front end loaded, it'll get warmer/colder the second half of winter, etc.. but they do mention for us in the Mid Atlantic and NE about the Arctic Oscillation as a wild card for possibly a bit colder and snowier weather. Remember last winter was also predicted by some to be front end loaded to only to have a return of the 09/10 version of the -NAO/AO followed by a +PNA regime which kept it cold all the way into mid February before we saw any kind of warm weather. Obviously, we don't need levels of the the AO and especially NAO to be so exceptionally negative to get a good winter pattern around these parts. And i'd rather not see things go that negative unless I were living on or inside I-95. At any rate, NOAA outlook can be found HERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 CTP pulling the trigger on any enhanced precip rates will have snow mixing in at 2k feet. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...THICK STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE WESTERN MTNS OF PENNTHROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE HEIGHT OF THE WET BULBZERO WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1500 FT AGL ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDSLATE TODAY THROUGH THE MID MORNING FRIDAY. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILLLIKELY BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW AT ELEVATIONS G.E. 2000 FT MSL...ANDPAINTED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO HAVE THIS MIXED PRECIP SPECKLED ACROSSTHE HIGHER TERRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Go look at the 0Z GFS from 180-192 - first fantasy storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Go look at the 0Z GFS from 180-192 - first fantasy storm of the year. 00z Euro has a pretty significant snowfall in the day 6-8 range as well, hours ~156-180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Go look at the 0Z GFS from 180-192 - first fantasy storm of the year. 00z Euro has a pretty significant snowfall in the day 6-8 range as well, hours ~156-180. Enough for the NWS to mention it, too. Probably still a fantasy at this point-especially in the "lowlands" below 2k ft-but interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Wayne Brady is pissed. 00z Euro has a pretty significant snowfall in the day 6-8 range as well, hours ~156-180. Enough for the NWS to mention it, too. Probably still a fantasy at this point-especially in the "lowlands" below 2k ft-but interesting nonetheless. NWS: THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ASOPERATIONAL GFS/EC BOTH SHARPEN TROUGH OVR THE EASTERNCONUS...DRAWING GULF MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. OPERATIONAL ECACTUALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL OVR THEAPPALACHIANS LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BOTH GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLESUGGEST A LESS DRAMATIC SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...WITH SFC LOWTRACK WELL OFF THE E COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 12z GFS so far out to hr 120 is looking to set things up pretty decently. Just need things to fall into place down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Not perfect, but a very minor shift in the details would be wonderful. And even with this solution we get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Not perfect, but a very minor shift in the details would be wonderful. And even with this solution we get some snow. A sloppy inch or two verbatim, looks like. What kind of shift are you looking for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 A sloppy inch or two verbatim, looks like. What kind of shift are you looking for? A phase with the Texas vortmax would be ideal, but even barring that, a slight shift northwestward of the coastal low would give us more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 This run leaves a lot of energy back. I would think this is actually a pretty big step back from the previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 A phase with the Texas vortmax would be ideal, but even barring that, a slight shift northwestward of the coastal low would give us more snow. Ah, ok. I just have to wonder if we could afford much of a NW trend with temps pretty marginal (although you said slight!). I know I shouldn't be scrutinizing the models so much this early but I'm a product of the SE forum, where we specialize in grasping at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 This run leaves a lot of energy back. I would think this is actually a pretty big step back from the previous run? Well it's a "pretty big step back" from the 00z for sure, which doesn't hang a chunk of vorticity back over Texas. But details like that are going to change from run to run... we should expect that. It's not as if we're looking at something three days out... there are going to be pretty big shifts with each new model run. I'm wondering if the tropical development could be inducing a bit of a fujiwhara-type deal with the energy over Texas, forcing it southward and keeping it over Texas instead of allowing it to move along with the rest of the midlatitude flow. Regardless, these kinds of details are essentially unknowable right now. Some good news is that the 12z ensembles have continued the trend of stronger development offshore, and moving it further north and west. Indeed, the 12z ensemble mean, were it to shift just a bit further northwest, would be ideal for us. Compare the 12z ensemble mean: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS168.gif With the 06z: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS168.gif And the 00z: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Ah, ok. I just have to wonder if we could afford much of a NW trend with temps pretty marginal (although you said slight!). I know I shouldn't be scrutinizing the models so much this early but I'm a product of the SE forum, where we specialize in grasping at straws. Without that additional energy from the Texas system, I think a weaker low would mean the area that gets a decent snowfall would be very thin, with too little moisture to the west and too much warmth to the east. That's why I'd like to see that Texas vortmax playing a bigger role--a stronger low would be able to pull in more cold air and throw in more moisture, and then it would all be down to the track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Quite the cold day here in Somerset, PA at the PA Turnpike rest stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Euro has a little snow. Again, it'll all come down to details which the models won't have a handle on for a couple days yet, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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