easternsnowman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The trebd us going in the right direction, I think everyone north of the Md has a chance although around philly elevation will be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well I could see the possibility of the trough being deeper and going negative later than GFS and Euro are suggesting. UKIE and DGEX seem to take the 500 mb trough negative later which results in more of a coastal storm. So there are still some possibilities out there on the table as unlikely as they might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 really? what do you see on the latest maps that would indicate Philadelphia would see blizzard conditions on Sunday? Not saying that, just maybe a little sleet or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 seriously? that needs to be broken down? OK. 1. his sole support for this scenario is one of the ensembles. and what was his criteria for choosing it? not "the ensemble member I chose makes the most sense given the temperatures, the placement of the low, the prevailing winds, etc." nope. the one he chose is the one that gives him snow. 2. leaving aside the fact he was using the 18z, there was zero meteorological basis for this statement: how can you make a forecast off a bunch of snapshots? the 18z had warm air at the surface for 90% of the event, and warm air aloft for 80% of the event west of the Blue Ridge. furthermore, as Wes pointed out, you have southerly winds. 3. then there's that map. even Elkins, WV is forecasted to have a rain/snow mix, and he has assured us of blizzard conditions beginning west of the Blue Ridge. I don't know how this is anything but wishcast. this would have been a much better post than your first... i think you know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well, well, well - the GFS has taken a huge jump toward the DGEX/UKIE camp with the 500 mb trough going negative later. Is this a hiccup or the beginning of a trend? Definitely makes things a bit more interesting although still a long way from giving I-95 anything other than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like the 12z GFS gives us some wraparound snows sometime after 109... ofc it won't amount to anything... but it would be nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like the 12z GFS gives us some wraparound snows sometime after 109... ofc it won't amount to anything... but it would be nice to see Yoda, up towards PHL, maybe they end with snow but in our back yard it's still going to be tough with the 850 low to our west before it reforms north of us. We can hope for a brief period but it is still unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 As things stand now. Yoda, up towards PHL, maybe they end with snow but in our back yard it's still going to be tough with the 850 low to our west before it reforms north of us. We can hope for a brief period but it is still unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 As things stand now. It has pretty much been this way from run to run. The 850 low has maintained it west of 95 position. The 12z GFS has more of an eastward surface reflection of the low than past runs, possibly due to a transfer of the parent to a coastal well north of us. It's still ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm more than just surprised that this is being discussed. Not offended, just surprised. Unless we see a secondary form around the SC/GA coast (we won't) this is a meaningless conversation for the DC metro area as it is for MRB, HGR, PHL, CHO, ETC. Even the VA Sky Line area. Sure there's going to be an upslope event in WV/MD. I'm holding my hopes out for some backside squalls as there does seem to be at least a remote possibility of that. Still, a 5min blizzard doesn't cut it in my book. ^^ This. Also, it's probably not going to be a historic storm for all but a rare few in N/W NY and maybe, MAYBE W PA. This thread is full of wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The only "B" word to be used now is "bust" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It's amazing how much animosity there appears to be between the realists and the dreamers. Perhaps we should have one mid-atlantic dreamers sub forum and another mid-atlantic realist forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I know "weenie tags" didnt make the transition over to the new forum. But maybe someone should double check that decision. This thread is full of epic weenieism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 this thread is done... the OP hasnt returned and there's no reason to just bash away. if someone wants to start a storm thread that's a bit more in tune with what seems likely feel free. o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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