PennMan Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Nice storm ongoing here. Some really intense rainfall rates for awhile, and still pouring 30+ minutes later. I was in town and tried to beat it home....failed miserably. Did get to see a few really close CTG strikes which was cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 NAM shows a heavy burst of rain Wed-Thu also. Looking at H2 thats definitely a PRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 One of the models posted in the Lee thread, forget which one, has C PA getting 10"-15" through the end of the week ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 0Z NAM would not be good for susq. River basin or basically 2/3 of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahantango Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 2.3" of rain from that thunderstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Pouring rain...lots of lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 0Z NAM would not be good for susq. River basin or basically 2/3 of PA Yeah pretty much all of Central Pa, and all of Nepa. Getting wet looking again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Pouring rain...lots of lightning Yeah, I noticed Binghamton posted flash flood watches out for Nepa. Looks like my county is the only county in their cwa they didn't post one for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Looks like around 1.5" in the gauge so far. Appears it will continue raining at varying intensities for the next hour or two at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Looks like State College just issued some flash flood warnings for Harrisburg/York area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Latest GFS says hi to Agnes like rain totals this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 What is that rain band on Wednesday that seems to just sit over central pa and not move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Thank God the river in HBG is only 4.5" as of this afternoon ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The GFS is problematic to me because it has handled Lee the best out of all the models - last week I recall it was one of the few that said Lee would go into Louisiana and then try to come up here. Also, I've noticed tonight that the GFS pressure pattern of Lee was initializing much better than the NAM. The 12-14" the GFS is spitting out may be a bit overdone, but combining stalled fronts and tropical systems usually means trouble. If the pattern evolves like the GFS has it, I can see how we get a fairly widespread area of 4-8". Seems like a lot, but just look at how much we've piled up just tonight. We put together 2-4" in the Susquehanna Valley in just a few hours. All you need in this kind of setup is a few bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms these high amounts. That being said, it's still just a scenario. We're combining a lot of things that the models don't do particularly well - tropical systems (both Lee & Katia), stalled fronts and a cut-off low at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Some HUGE flooding likely for you guys if the GFS and probably NAM are right for you guys. I remember very well back in 2004 when Frances and Ivan came up that way and seeing the massive flooding along the Juniata and Susquehanna, and this could very well be repeated if these 5-10"+ rains are verified on the GFS, and they could if T-storms setup the right way for long enough a time, in front of the slow moving front, plus orographic lift that caused both Frances and Ivan to be so prolific up there. It should be quite an event for many of you guys-best of luck, and personally I'm glad you're taking the flooding crown off us for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 LOL, if the GGEM verifies, we might have to swim to the PSU/Bama game next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 What does the GGEM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Since I was up for work anyways, I took a look at the 06Z Nam and I see 4.71 in on the x right over Harrisburg for 24hr rainfall on hour 66. So 0Z on Thursday. Boats may come in handy yet Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Could someone give me a lesson on U-wind and V-wind anomalies. They were mentioned in the latest CTP discussion with being 3 - 4 Standard deviations above normal for Wednesday through Thursday. Anyways in the words of CTP this should be an "efficient rain making machine" through Thursday foe a good portion of central and eastern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 06Z GFS raises the ante again by showing a nice swath of 10 - 15 inch rainfall from just about, or just north of, Harrisburg up to the NY state line. This is at hour 84 with small dots of 15" + rain showing up by hour 96 or 102. Never thought I would be getting closer to the forecast period and have the GFS keep pushing the boundary of what is rational. At this point if even 2/3 of the rain falls on the area the GFS predicts it would still be really bad. KMDT had over 2.25 inches from the storms last night. Throwing another 6 or so inches by Thursday afternoon and it starts to look a bit bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahantango Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Total from last nights rain: 2.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Just over two weeks ago. Well then, welcome to PA! Are you going to do any traveling around the state? If so, and you happen to get down my way, PM me and lunch/supper/coffee is on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Despite FFG being slightly higher to the NW of CTP's watch area, looks like they will have to expand it this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Well then, welcome to PA! Are you going to do any traveling around the state? If so, and you happen to get down my way, PM me and lunch/supper/coffee is on me. Haha, I might just take you up on that offer at some point, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Holy carp. NAM's a lot wetter at 12Z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=09%2F05%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Anyone know the QPF output from the latest ECMWF runs for central Pennsylvania? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Haha, I might just take you up on that offer at some point, thanks! No problem! Just know that I work Mon-Fri 4AM to 5PM, so it would have to be an evening or a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Totaled 2.8 overnight in midtown HBG. I'm going to go find a boat today, going to likely need it by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Guys, say a little prayer or thought for my parents and thr firefighters and everyone in Texas; my parents have been evacuated because two separate fires are closing in on their neighborhood. These fires have already killed a mom and her baby and destroyed a good chunk of homes. We get 10" rain, and Texas gas t seen 4" rain all year. Not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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