SACRUS Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Thought it would be good to have a regional discussion on what may be the first significant threat of a US landfall tropical storm this year. Guidance has been consistent in bringing invest 97 into the southeast or GOM as a tropical storm or hurricane. Last nights 00z euro has landfall near Ft Lauderdale then a coastal scraper up into the carolinas. GFS a bit more persistent with a FL or GOM track. Either way something to track and perhaps some eventual local impacts later Labor Day weekend? First we need the storm to develop and get through the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 12z gfs is a Fl Keys then GOM track after having passed through Cuba. Eventual landfall looks between around Mobile and Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 12z gfs is a Fl Keys then GOM track after having passed through Cuba. Eventual landfall looks between around Mobile and Pensacola. 12z gfs dumps 13.6" RA on Tallahassee on 8/28, 978 mb and sustained SE 54 mph.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The 00z Euro takes a powerfull Hurricane into the Carolinas after brushing SE FL and the impacts down the road on our region would be big it seems, if you could go to the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Good luck guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Cat 1? The 00z Euro takes a powerfull Hurricane into the Carolinas after brushing SE FL and the impacts down the road on our region would be big it seems, if you could go to the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 la la land.....but 12z euro brings in up to hit the keys, then up through the center of the state into the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Cat 1? Try a 961 at least CAT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The 12z Track goes much further inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 The 12z Track goes much further inland S-FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 TD 8 just got named Harvey. And 98L could develop first. So this could be Irene or Jose. Whatever name it gets, I think it going into the Caribbean first and then becomes a landfall threat to the SE US or GOM. That's assuming, it survives any land interaction with Cuba or Hispaniola. We could eventually see some remnants up here depending on if and when it hooks up with a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's way too early to dismiss a SE landfall and a possible significant event up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's probably also way too early to be taking it too seriously either ;-) It's way too early to dismiss a SE landfall and a possible significant event up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 00z tracks...pretty good agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 i think this one stays weaker alittle longer than what the models have and slips under the big islands..depending on fast this system gets itself out of dry air. Conditions in the nw car. and/or the gulf will be very favorable if it makes it there. And thats a big if..should be fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Thought it would be good to have a regional discussion on what may be the first significant threat of a US landfall tropical storm this year. Guidance has been consistent in bringing invest 97 into the southeast or GOM as a tropical storm or hurricane. Last nights 00z euro has landfall near Ft Lauderdale then a coastal scraper up into the carolinas. GFS a bit more persistent with a FL or GOM track. Either way something to track and perhaps some eventual local impacts later Labor Day weekend? First we need the storm to develop and get through the Caribbean. If whatever develops has to scrape through every major Caribbean island on its way, then I see its chances as being slim. If it stays over open water for long enough, it can be a threat. The longer term steering pattern suggests a threat further up the coast at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 00z GFS shifts again, brings the storm south of LI... probably some TS-force winds right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 yeah most definitly, it looks like last nights 00z Euro run. If the center stays far enough offshore from FL, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Almost a perfect noreaster setup Right over the benchmark and blocking high over northern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 6z gfs has the tropical system going inside the BM. Alot of rain for the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 6z gfs has the tropical system going inside the BM. Alot of rain for the area . Looks like the models have it occurring on the Sunday before Labor Day. CMC was into the GOM and ensembles west into Panhandle. Storm needs to develop first and then get through Hispanola and Cuba, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like the models have it occurring on the Sunday before Labor Day. CMC was into the GOM and ensembles west into Panhandle. Storm needs to develop first and then get through Hispanola and Cuba, As much I want a tropical system up here, I do not want it to be on Sunday because I have a big party to go to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 As much I want a tropical system up here, I do not want it to be on Sunday because I have a big party to go to. I will alert the hurricane to adjust accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I will alert the hurricane to adjust accordingly. Thank you John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 As much I want a tropical system up here, I do not want it to be on Sunday because I have a big party to go to. Well let's all send our desired dates to the hurricane, because I'd rather it happen Labor day weekend when I'm back home from PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 12z gfs has the low going up into central NY. It still gives the area a lot of rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 12z gfs has the low going up into central NY. It still gives the area a lot of rain and wind. How much wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 How much wind? It is a Day 8-9 forecast. I don't think it is even wise to be looking at them yet in this way. That being said, its just an extratropical mess when it is up here. GFS has the center of the low around 992 mb. Nothing crazy, at least in the wind dept. It will have been over land for almost 3 days at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 They just sent a VDM. The found 53kts at flight level. This might be Irene soon. 000 URNT12 KNHC 202118 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL972011 A. 20/20:55:10Z B. 14 deg 31 min N 057 deg 46 min W C. NA D. 54 kt E. 043 deg 82 nm F. 090 deg 53 kt G. 046 deg 92 nm H. EXTRAP 1006 mb I. 20 C / 457 m J. 23 C / 456 m K. 8 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 1 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF300 01GGA INVEST OB 06 MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:25:20Z SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 They just sent a VDM. The found 53kts at flight level. This might be Irene soon. 000 URNT12 KNHC 202118 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL972011 A. 20/20:55:10Z B. 14 deg 31 min N 057 deg 46 min W C. NA D. 54 kt E. 043 deg 82 nm F. 090 deg 53 kt G. 046 deg 92 nm H. EXTRAP 1006 mb I. 20 C / 457 m J. 23 C / 456 m K. 8 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 1 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF300 01GGA INVEST OB 06 MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:25:20Z SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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