wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Is there really much to guess how this ends again.. Btw, how was that virga/drizzle this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Those cu in central IA look to be forming in a confluent zone and south of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Btw, how was that virga/drizzle this morning? LOL.. Prob didn't even get a tenth of an inch.. 12z GFS gives us 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 LOL.. Prob didn't even get a tenth of an inch.. 12z GFS gives us 2" Most of the models d us, yet reality is going to be the same perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 New day 2 Not sure what to think...the 15/15/2 marginal looking days for SEMI kinda have been turning out the best this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 "Cool" and rainy here in Kankakee. Lightning and deep thunder from time to time still...one recent lightning strike a little too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The NAM looks pretty solid for much of Wisconsin on Tuesday. Of course, given this summer, I don't think these progs will last. This. I should've listened to my original advice that it would change, but I was too dumb in trusting these clueless models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Blue skies all over the western sky now. Just had a heavy shower with the sun out. Kind of cool. The cloud cover is clearing pretty quickly more from the northwest over southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, so things may clear out quicker than they looked earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 New day 2 Not sure what to think...the 15/15/2 marginal looking days for SEMI kinda have been turning out the best this season I actually like this potential for tomorrow greatly, we will cook all day and the timer will pop across Central Michigan around 5-6pm and race eastward, this could be one of our best potentials of the year thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This. I should've listened to my original advice that it would change, but I was too dumb in trusting these clueless models. Its 1pm, want to wait until at least 6pm before bagging the weather for the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Blue sky now on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Kind of wondering what's gonna happen with that activity in northeast Nebraska, and now entering western Iowa. That activity is beneath a 60kt H3 wind maximum, and is moving into increasingly more favorable conditions. Sure doesn't look like it wants to dissipate anytime soon. Wouldn't be surprised to see that area flare up when it reaches central Iowa a bit later. Some pretty impressive parameters already in place in central Iowa. SPC mentioned central Iowa was more of a conditional threat, but with that activity moving into western Iowa, I think things look more interesting in that area. If that area takes off it could grow upscale and impact areas further east into Illinois eventually. Just another possible scenario that could play out later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 after seeing the NMM i guess i can see why LOT added the heavy rain wording, even if it initialized terribly, hard to ignore 4-8" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Blue sky now on the horizon. As soon as the sun came out here the southerly winds quickly picked up and became quite gusty. Don't think it will take all that long to mix this cooler air out. Certainly not as long as it takes sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 As soon as the sun came out here the southerly winds quickly picked up and became quite gusty. Don't think it will take all that long to mix this cooler air out. Certainly not as long as it takes sometimes. nice, little update from LOT, they sound bullish. A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ACROSS FARSOUTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST EAST OF THE ST LOUIS AREA. AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE INCREASES. THESE STORMS WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET CREATES SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE FROM AROUND 01 TO 04 UTC THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AROUND 25 KT INTO THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nice ripple effect to the cumulus field over central/northeast Iowa on visible. Good sign of respectable wind shear. Effective bulk shear values over 60kts in this area. Very nice swath of good mid-level lapse rates advecting into this area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Sun is out now, and we're finally into the 70s. My thinking is storms will develop to the NW or W of us, skirt us to our SW or hit us directly, and proceed to turn into more of a linear MCS or something and affect Chicago. Unfortunately, this guess is based mostly on my impression of poorly initialized models, so it shouldn't be taken very seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Sun is out now, and we're finally into the 70s. My thinking is storms will develop to the NW or W of us, skirt us to our SW or hit us directly, and proceed to turn into more of a linear MCS or something and affect Chicago. Unfortunately, this guess is based mostly on my impression of poorly initialized models, so it shouldn't be taken very seriously. Some decent thunderstorms already increasing over northwest Wisconsin. Those will likely only increase and intensify over the next several hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see an MD out for much of Wisconsin soon for this reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Some decent thunderstorms already increasing over northwest Wisconsin. Those will likely only increase and intensify over the next several hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see an MD out for much of Wisconsin soon for this reason. agree, going to be some nice action up there in the north country with probably some sort of "screw zone" in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Some decent thunderstorms already increasing over northwest Wisconsin. Those will likely only increase and intensify over the next several hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see an MD out for much of Wisconsin soon for this reason. I was just going to ask whether the environment ahead of the small cluster of storms in NW Wisconsin was like. Seemed unstable enough to allow it to intensify a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 As soon as the sun came out here the southerly winds quickly picked up and became quite gusty. Don't think it will take all that long to mix this cooler air out. Certainly not as long as it takes sometimes. ya really strong backed flow impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 after seeing the NMM i guess i can see why LOT added the heavy rain wording, even if it initialized terribly, hard to ignore 4-8" amounts. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 WOW ORD would make a run at their newly established daily rainfall record if that were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 kinda looks like towers off to the west.....looks at radar, yep towers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 bad day to have forgotten a camera, really nice looking towers to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Funny, we took a hit in the rain department with the morning MCS just to likely get dry slotted....the severe equivalent of the dry slot. Edit: I might have spoken too soon, after seeing the latest HRRR, which correctly picked up the activity in NW Wisconsin, still bring that activity through here a little after 0z. Also, the most recent SPC update puts C Wisconsin in the greatest likelihood of severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Downpour with a few CG's mixed in at RT. 53 and Biesterfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We also have a cap up here per the AFD. Who would've thought late August in the Upper Midwest would yield major capping issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 0-1km helicity values now up to 500 m2/s2 around DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We also have a cap up here per the AFD. Who would've thought late August in the Upper Midwest would yield major capping issues. the only area with major capping issues is W. Iowa where it probably won't break. The cap further east will erode. LOT UPSTREAM ACROSS IOWA THE ENVIRONMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMAINSCAPPED...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE AROUND 21-22Z. LLVL JET FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE PEGGED AT 40KTS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN THE 0-1KM INDICATE A POTENT 40-50KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THEN TURNING W/NW IN THE 1-3KM OVERNIGHT. 500MB VORT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES AFTER 00Z. THUS EXPECT INSTABILITY TO CREEP BACK INTO NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH. MCS SHOULD STEADILY PUSH EAST FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO WISCONSIN. WHILE A SOLID LIFT MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO SEEING A FEW UPDRAFTS ROTATE GIVEN THE TURNING IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT. THUS IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STILL FEEL THE BEST THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...WILL BE HYDRO CONCERNS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT PWAT ANOMS ON THE ORDER OF 3 SIGMA AND 850MB MFLUX AT 4-5 SIGMA OVER OUR CWFA. ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT FIT THE CONVENTIONAL SENSE OF A HYDRO EVENT...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING AS SOME STORMS MAY BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MEDIUM THAT OUR CWFA WILL BE THE TRAINING GROUND FOR NEW AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO REMAIN STATIONARY. THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND JUST HANDLE THIS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS...BEEFED UP HWO TO TALK ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. AGAIN THE WINDOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR IN THE 00-09Z TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY ENDING PRIOR TO 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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