chris87 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I have been a professional national forecaster for 30 years, and I stand by my opinion. fair enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 An eye forming in the white stuff. It does still have that crapy dingleband appearence on the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 the 11pm discussion was really interestingly passive aggressive towards itself. 25 m/s winds well removed from the center post landfall based on GFS, I have no problem with Stewart's disco re strongest winds removved from the center. Sure its hybrid by this time, but the NHC's primary mission of protecting livves and property, onn it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Even down here on Cape Fear, N.C. the back side (which lasted forever and was very far from storm center) was the most potent (hours and hours of high winds.) Odd storm indeed. storm has pulled away from here but the last hour we had a 61 mph gust at ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 25 m/s winds well removed from the center post landfall based on GFS, I have no problem with Stewart's disco re strongest winds removved from the center. Sure its hybrid by this time, but the NHC's primary mission of protecting livves and property, onn it. when you google earth that recon data it is really interesting...lots and lots of FL obs in the 80's with SFMR's rain flagged and in the high 50's...the nomal 90% reduction factor from 700mb is off by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 when you google earth that recon data it is really interesting...lots and lots of FL obs in the 80's with SFMR's rain flagged and in the high 50's...the nomal 90% reduction factor from 700mb is off by a lot. On the West side of the storm, but Albany's disco about high winds 850-925 mb, and mountains/rier vallies nearly aligned, might see some hurricane gusts West of the center. Not sure why this storm has been underperforming from flight level to surface since the Bahamas. Over colder waters off Long Island, stable boundary layer/inersion, I could see it, but its been like this since the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 why does it look to me like a dry wedge is setting up below south jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 On the West side of the storm, but Albany's disco about high winds 850-925 mb, and mountains/rier vallies nearly aligned, might see some hurricane gusts West of the center. Not sure why this storm has been underperforming from flight level to surface since the Bahamas. Over colder waters off Long Island, stable boundary layer/inersion, I could see it, but its been like this since the Bahamas. Yep same thing here in frederick, winds where lame until they came around to the NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Apologies for the DT-esque drawing. A) huge band that brought 2-5 inches of rain in 2-3 hours to central NJ / southeast PA and now pushing into NYC B ) an eye? TWC calls it that and seems to be persisting... this is some of the clearest I've seen it C) lotta dry air wrapping around Interestingly, lotta of the strongest airs aloft are occurring to the south and eastern quadrants where rainfall is not that intense. Questions for the Pro's or anyone else with thoughts: Any other analysis of this satellite image? Are we seeing transition to extratropical system? I'm concerned that the huge band (A) was energy dissipating from center, and that the dry air pulled around © is really going to interfere with maintaining strength. On the other hand, we do have what seems to be a steady eye (B ) we are over water, and strong jet is over head. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Usually in the winter we see stronger winds after a low departs than on the front side of the low. Irene seems to follow that pattern. It could be transitioning into extratropical, in which case it will act like a 954 mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Extratropical transition is just that...a transition. In other words, it can only be understood as a continuum. It has been and will be transitioning into an extratropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I was just making the point that you hold neither the expertise or the position to make that call...hence your only voice...a wx BB? I'd agree probably not...but i'm not a forecaster either...i'm one of those stupid PhDs that can't forecast.... If it hasn't had sustained hurricane force winds in x or xx hours at any reporting stations including those out over the water it probably isn't a hurricane and hasn't been for hours. When people talk about misperceptions with the public that's where it starts. If it isn't producing hurricane force winds and is struggling to produce significant tropical storm force winds why is it still classified as a hurricane? It does make a difference, either the standard means something or it doesn't. JMHO, I respect the opinions of everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 If it hasn't had sustained hurricane force winds in x or xx hours at any reporting stations including those out over the water it probably isn't a hurricane and hasn't been for hours. When people talk about misperceptions with the public that's where it starts. If it isn't producing hurricane force winds and is struggling to produce significant tropical storm force winds why is it still classified as a hurricane? It does make a difference, either the standard means something or it doesn't. JMHO, I respect the opinions of everyone else. Life and property perspective, a 55 knot storm isn't that much different from a 65 knot storm, they can revise downward to post tropical or a TS in December. Expanded wind field, surge will be Cat 1-ish, already NYC subforum poster reporting surge near Jamaica Bay. CNN reporting surge to near the casinos in ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 We still getting Equinox season satellite blackouts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 If it hasn't had sustained hurricane force winds in x or xx hours at any reporting stations including those out over the water it probably isn't a hurricane and hasn't been for hours. When people talk about misperceptions with the public that's where it starts. If it isn't producing hurricane force winds and is struggling to produce significant tropical storm force winds why is it still classified as a hurricane? It does make a difference, either the standard means something or it doesn't. JMHO, I respect the opinions of everyone else. This is pretty par for the course though...there are plenty of times you see, say, a 80 MPH hurricane make landfall, but you never see a reporting station with over a 60 MPH sustained wind. Reporting stations are, overall, an EXTREMELY small sample of what is going on, as 2 miles down the road, you could be seeing something completely different. Remember also in this case that half the storm is still not over any sort of reporting station, so I think that to make that judgement is premature. Remember, it is max sustained wind...in ONE point. Not the overall windfield over XXXXX square miles. If there is a single spot off shore with 80 MPH surface winds, over one minute, it is a hurricane.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Not sure how reliable this is, so take it w/ a grain of salt. AC Office of Emergency Management estimates 80-85% evacuated from city Police giving ppl ID forms to put in shoes.Predictions that ocean will meet bay on all barrier islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Not sure how reliable this is, so take it w/ a grain of salt. AC Office of Emergency Management estimates 80-85% evacuated from city Police giving ppl ID forms to put in shoes.Predictions that ocean will meet bay on all barrier islands. New law enforcement cliche of hurricanes, asking people who won't leave to write social security nnumbers or otherwise identify for easy ID because they will surely die if they don't evacuate. If it works and saves lives, I guess its ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Just imagine how much worse this could have been if it lived up to its initially forecast strength and was a Cat 2 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 impressive video of power / lights going out in multiple buildings in Atlantic City: http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/breaking/reader-video-watch-the-lights-go-out-in-atlantic-city/article_13535d1a-d132-11e0-989d-001cc4c002e0.html lights go out at 36 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 very impressive IMBY. wind gust at least equal to isabel (58 mph) at dca, daily rain total highest for aug in 40 yrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Looking less and less impressive on Sat. images with each passing update. Looking at the loops still don't agree with the NYC landfall. Still thinking Nassau/Suffolk border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Pressure up to 957.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mesocyclone Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 WASHINGTON/NATIONAL,VA (DCA) ASOS reports gust of 52.0 knots from NNW @ 0525Z KDCA 280552Z 34030G47KT 7SM -RA FEW029 BKN035 OVC046 22/19 A2912 RMK AO2 PK WND 34052/0525 SLP859 T02220194 10233 20222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Wind still at 80mph as of 2AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Anyone see this? It's f'ing gross. Apparently a FOX reporter was getting sprayed w/ raw sewage and saying it was sea foam. He added "It doesn't taste great." http://www.myfoxny.com/dpp/news/fox-reporter-gives-update-covered-in-sea-foam-20110827 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Anyone see this? It's f'ing gross. Apparently a FOX reporter was getting sprayed w/ raw sewage and saying it was sea foam. He added "It doesn't taste great." http://www.myfoxny.c...a-foam-20110827 I think that will have repercussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smitty97 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 How much does the Mount holly radar being down affect data accuracy for this region? I know they're reporting what they can, but it can be helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Sorry if this is already posted, but New York Battery Pork is already at 4 ft above normal and this is right at the time of low tide. Doesn't bode well for high tide and the arrival of the center... http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=8518750%20The%20Battery,%20NY&type=Tide+Data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Sorry if this is already posted, but New York Battery Pork is already at 4 ft above normal and this is right at the time of low tide. Doesn't bode well for high tide and the arrival of the center... http://tidesandcurre...&type=Tide+Data Watching the news channels, they all have reporters down there...I hope they are ready to clear out of there quick.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Tornado warning in NJ again Includes Six Flags, Was called 'Great Adventures' when i went there in 8th grade on a Catholic school field trip from Amityville, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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