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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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the 11pm discussion was really interestingly passive aggressive towards itself.

25 m/s winds well removed from the center post landfall based on GFS, I have no problem with Stewart's disco re strongest winds removved from the center. Sure its hybrid by this time, but the NHC's primary mission of protecting livves and property, onn it.

GFSSF_NE2011082718F024.gif

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25 m/s winds well removed from the center post landfall based on GFS, I have no problem with Stewart's disco re strongest winds removved from the center. Sure its hybrid by this time, but the NHC's primary mission of protecting livves and property, onn it.

when you google earth that recon data it is really interesting...lots and lots of FL obs in the 80's with SFMR's rain flagged and in the high 50's...the nomal 90% reduction factor from 700mb is off by a lot.

nU2PE.jpg

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when you google earth that recon data it is really interesting...lots and lots of FL obs in the 80's with SFMR's rain flagged and in the high 50's...the nomal 90% reduction factor from 700mb is off by a lot.

nU2PE.jpg

On the West side of the storm, but Albany's disco about high winds 850-925 mb, and mountains/rier vallies nearly aligned, might see some hurricane gusts West of the center. Not sure why this storm has been underperforming from flight level to surface since the Bahamas. Over colder waters off Long Island, stable boundary layer/inersion, I could see it, but its been like this since the Bahamas.

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On the West side of the storm, but Albany's disco about high winds 850-925 mb, and mountains/rier vallies nearly aligned, might see some hurricane gusts West of the center. Not sure why this storm has been underperforming from flight level to surface since the Bahamas. Over colder waters off Long Island, stable boundary layer/inersion, I could see it, but its been like this since the Bahamas.

Yep same thing here in frederick, winds where lame until they came around to the NNW.

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Apologies for the DT-esque drawing.

A) huge band that brought 2-5 inches of rain in 2-3 hours to central NJ / southeast PA and now pushing into NYC

B ) an eye? TWC calls it that and seems to be persisting... this is some of the clearest I've seen it

C) lotta dry air wrapping around

Interestingly, lotta of the strongest airs aloft are occurring to the south and eastern quadrants where rainfall is not that intense.

Questions for the Pro's or anyone else with thoughts:

Any other analysis of this satellite image?

Are we seeing transition to extratropical system? I'm concerned that the huge band (A) was energy dissipating from center, and that the dry air pulled around © is really going to interfere with maintaining strength. On the other hand, we do have what seems to be a steady eye (B ) we are over water, and strong jet is over head.

Thanks!

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I was just making the point that you hold neither the expertise or the position to make that call...hence your only voice...a wx BB?

I'd agree probably not...but i'm not a forecaster either...i'm one of those stupid PhDs that can't forecast....

If it hasn't had sustained hurricane force winds in x or xx hours at any reporting stations including those out over the water it probably isn't a hurricane and hasn't been for hours.

When people talk about misperceptions with the public that's where it starts. If it isn't producing hurricane force winds and is struggling to produce significant tropical storm force winds why is it still classified as a hurricane? It does make a difference, either the standard means something or it doesn't.

JMHO, I respect the opinions of everyone else.

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If it hasn't had sustained hurricane force winds in x or xx hours at any reporting stations including those out over the water it probably isn't a hurricane and hasn't been for hours.

When people talk about misperceptions with the public that's where it starts. If it isn't producing hurricane force winds and is struggling to produce significant tropical storm force winds why is it still classified as a hurricane? It does make a difference, either the standard means something or it doesn't.

JMHO, I respect the opinions of everyone else.

Life and property perspective, a 55 knot storm isn't that much different from a 65 knot storm, they can revise downward to post tropical or a TS in December. Expanded wind field, surge will be Cat 1-ish, already NYC subforum poster reporting surge near Jamaica Bay. CNN reporting surge to near the casinos in ACY.

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If it hasn't had sustained hurricane force winds in x or xx hours at any reporting stations including those out over the water it probably isn't a hurricane and hasn't been for hours.

When people talk about misperceptions with the public that's where it starts. If it isn't producing hurricane force winds and is struggling to produce significant tropical storm force winds why is it still classified as a hurricane? It does make a difference, either the standard means something or it doesn't.

JMHO, I respect the opinions of everyone else.

This is pretty par for the course though...there are plenty of times you see, say, a 80 MPH hurricane make landfall, but you never see a reporting station with over a 60 MPH sustained wind. Reporting stations are, overall, an EXTREMELY small sample of what is going on, as 2 miles down the road, you could be seeing something completely different. Remember also in this case that half the storm is still not over any sort of reporting station, so I think that to make that judgement is premature.

Remember, it is max sustained wind...in ONE point. Not the overall windfield over XXXXX square miles. If there is a single spot off shore with 80 MPH surface winds, over one minute, it is a hurricane....

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Not sure how reliable this is, so take it w/ a grain of salt.

AC Office of Emergency Management estimates 80-85% evacuated from city

Police giving ppl ID forms to put in shoes.Predictions that ocean will meet bay on all barrier islands.

New law enforcement cliche of hurricanes, asking people who won't leave to write social security nnumbers or otherwise identify for easy ID because they will surely die if they don't evacuate. If it works and saves lives, I guess its ok.

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Sorry if this is already posted, but New York Battery Pork is already at 4 ft above normal and this is right at the time of low tide. Doesn't bode well for high tide and the arrival of the center...

http://tidesandcurre...&type=Tide+Data

Watching the news channels, they all have reporters down there...I hope they are ready to clear out of there quick....

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