Alpha5 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Based on some of the OBS looks like i was in a relatively dry spot. The 6z NAM definitely upped totals from the 0z run, so this one could go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Radar is everything at this point, if the 12z NAM is able to get a good grasp on whats going on down in south Jersey don't be suprised to see a significant increase in totals further southwest than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 12z NAM totals today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 I disagree, the stuff down in south Jersey is headed north. The storms off of Atlantic City developed and then pushed off shore. Based on radar, I think the 12z NAM is way too low this far south with the totals, looks like the two jackpot zones are NJ and eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 I disagree, the stuff down in south Jersey is headed north. The storms off of Atlantic City developed and then pushed off shore. Based on radar, I think the 12z NAM is way too low this far south with the totals, looks like the two jackpot zones are NJ and eastern LI Why are you hoping you get all this rain? It hasn't happened in your area which I presume is west of NYC and it won't happen today. Get over it. Where is all this rain that you were saying would come up from Baltimore? You may have some heavier showers, but I don't see prolonged heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Why are you hoping you get all this rain? It hasn't happened in your area which I presume is west of NYC and it won't happen today. Get over it. Where is all this rain that you were saying would come up from Baltimore? You may have some heavier showers, but I don't see prolonged heavy rains. Why? Because I'm a weather enthusiast and I feel left out of this "historical storm" just like I would if someone 20 miles to my west got 2 feet of snow and I got 3". I have no idea what happened to the rain down in Baltimore because I didn't stay up all night starring at the radar. I was simply making an observation based on radar. The 12z NAM gives upstate NY far more rain than LI and I think most people here would agree thats not right, just my opinion, no need to get all pissy about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Why are you hoping you get all this rain? It hasn't happened in your area which I presume is west of NYC and it won't happen today. Get over it. Where is all this rain that you were saying would come up from Baltimore? You may have some heavier showers, but I don't see prolonged heavy rains. His nickname is FloodFan27, so, that should give you some insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Why? Because I'm a weather enthusiast and I feel left out of this "historical storm" just like I would if someone 20 miles to my west got 2 feet of snow and I got 3". I have no idea what happened to the rain down in Baltimore because I didn't stay up all night starring at the radar. I was simply making an observation based on radar. The 12z NAM gives upstate NY far more rain than LI and I think most people here would agree thats not right, just my opinion, no need to get all pissy about it. You have consistently hoped and bashed models for being wrong because you feel left out of the historic rain. That's a real weenie way to go about things, just because you have been left out. Unfortunately, these happen. You maybe have a shot in the next two weeks of some anomalous stuff, if the models are right. It's possible you may get a deluge today, but I wouldn't count on too much other than some lgt-mdt rains with a few heavier elements. You are obviously entitled to your opinion...nothing wrong with that, but I and others have given reasons why this would not be much of a big deal west and especially nw of NYC. Right now, the pwat plume is to the east, along with the heavier rains. In order to get those heavy rains where you are, we'll have to see if we can get a band of rain developing and elongating nnw-sse. That could happen, but it may be very localized and I wouldn't count on it. But, if you get under it...you may get soaked. I just don't see widespread heavy rains for north jersey at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 You have consistently hoped and bashed models for being wrong because you feel left out of the historic rain. That's a real weenie way to go about things, just because you have been left out. Unfortunately, these happen. You maybe have a shot in the next two weeks of some anomalous stuff, if the models are right. It's possible you may get a deluge today, but I wouldn't count on too much other than some lgt-mdt rains with a few heavier elements. You are obviously entitled to your opinion...nothing wrong with that, but I and others have given reasons why this would not be much of a big deal west and especially nw of NYC. Right now, the pwat plume is to the east, along with the heavier rains. In order to get those heavy rains where you are, we'll have to see if we can get a band of rain developing and elongating nnw-sse. That could happen, but it may be very localized and I wouldn't count on it. But, if you get under it...you may get soaked. I just don't see widespread heavy rains for north jersey at this time. I haven't been a repeat basher of the models though, it doesn't take a met to notice the big run to run swings that have been taking place today on the NAM. The shift on the 6z run was huge from 0z. Even 12 hours out NJ was suppose to be the jackpot zone, not NYC and points east and we all know how thats turned out. I do realize that these types of events are very hard to predict but when you see rain setting up to your southwest which is moving north, northeast its common sense in my opinion to say that its headed in your direction. I just don't see how Long Island is the winner today, and the 12z NAM tends to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 I haven't been a repeat basher of the models though, it doesn't take a met to notice the big run to run swings that have been taking place today on the NAM. The shift on the 6z run was huge from 0z. Even 12 hours out NJ was suppose to be the jackpot zone, not NYC and points east and we all know how thats turned out. I do realize that these types of events are very hard to predict but when you see rain setting up to your southwest which is moving north, northeast its common sense in my opinion to say that its headed in your direction. I just don't see how Long Island is the winner today, and the 12z NAM tends to agree. Right, but yesterday you were mentioning how the models were off and current radar trends would suggest nrn NJ would get heavier rains, but I remember stating how this would be an NYC east deal. It's all good...I try to pop in and give my opinion on what's going on...so maybe a few understand the forecasting behind it. The models have been horrendous...but sometimes you need to nowcast and go by experience which I try to. As far as today goes..I think it's more showery in nature, with those types of bands from nnw-sse developing. They are hard to predict. If I were to pick an area that may receive the most rain..it's by highpoint and up into the Catskills. Upslope flow with a strong upper level trough in the area should help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 12z NAM if taken verbatim detroys the lower Hudson Valley and points north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 What town are you from, Yanks fan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Yesterday: JFK set its all time daily rainfall record LGA had its 2nd rainiest day on record NYC had its 5th rainiest day on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Wow, Sheepshead Bay received over 7 inches of rain. Just unbeliveable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 5.84" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Light rain has begun here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 4.24" event total thus far. Somewhat meager compared to the 7" amounts I'm hearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 You'd be right I'm up in the catskills we were pounded all night and it's continuing streamers running north almost nnward we picked up about 3 inches so far since midnight. I missed the deluge in the city my basement in Brooklyn flooded a bit. Right, but yesterday you were mentioning how the models were off and current radar trends would suggest nrn NJ would get heavier rains, but I remember stating how this would be an NYC east deal. It's all good...I try to pop in and give my opinion on what's going on...so maybe a few understand the forecasting behind it. The models have been horrendous...but sometimes you need to nowcast and go by experience which I try to. As far as today goes..I think it's more showery in nature, with those types of bands from nnw-sse developing. They are hard to predict. If I were to pick an area that may receive the most rain..it's by highpoint and up into the Catskills. Upslope flow with a strong upper level trough in the area should help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Sun is out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 5.84" Is that from your gage "wx 1028" ? I had alot more 8.65 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Sun is out here there is some decent SBCAPE in place, especially over NJ. Won't lead to anything severe but could aid in further thunderstorm development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 So far everything seems confined to the Delaware River region and up across NY state and avoiding the NYC Metro for the time being. Which after yesterday is fine by me. there is some decent SBCAPE in place, especially over NJ. Won't lead to anything severe but could aid in further thunderstorm development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 4.77 of rain here yesterday...my wettest 24 hr period since march 2009 noreaster. We needed the rain.... edison has been very dry this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 So far everything seems confined to the Delaware River region and up across NY state and avoiding the NYC Metro for the time being. Which after yesterday is fine by me. Which is fine by me to, because its closer to my house. I'm not home, but judging by radar its been raining there for most of the day. That band died out as it moved towards LI, I wonder if there is some subsidence going on with the band over eastern PA. I'm fairly certain this is the band that the 12z NAM has swinging through northern areas later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Sun is out here Yep, partly cloudy and tropical out there. 78/70 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Moderate to heavy downpour here in NW New Jersey the past half hour or so. Nothing compared to the jackpot amounts closer to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 slow moving band of strong looking thunderstorms now moving into western portions of Sussex and Morris counties. It's all moving very slowly to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 The slow moving nature of these cells look like they will allow a few inches to fall in a relatively short period of time Moderate to heavy downpour here in NW New Jersey the past half hour or so. Nothing compared to the jackpot amounts closer to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Yep, partly cloudy and tropical out there. 78/70 right now. 80 now, T-storms to my west look to produce some hvy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.