Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[Tornado Girl]

I've gotten 5" since Sat evening, but I'm down in the valley right next to the Black River. I've heard from folks up in Turin that had gotten 5" lastnight-today.

We're not getting as much as I had hoped...But we've picked up 8-10 inches over the last two days.

[MattyR]

Just a few flurries here in Pleasant Valley, NY - just NE of Poughkeepsie....

I grew up in Buffalo and it's times like these I really miss living there!

[Tornado Girl]

Sunday into Monday is still looking good. With this block in place, it seems that the secondary sould form just off the coast. If this is the case, it would cause quite a bit of snow in interior NYS...Maybe 1-2 feet worth and maybe a few places getting a little more than that.

[LakeEffectKing]

Sunday into Monday is still looking good. With this block in place, it seems that the secondary sould form just off the coast. If this is the case, it would cause quite a bit of snow in interior NYS...Maybe 1-2 feet worth and maybe a few places getting a little more than that.

Yep.....:

[Organizing Low]

wow check out that defo band

lets lock it in please

[Organizing Low]

Hey OL, good to see you again.. Ya, today's snow was a very nice surprise.. I'd say that we've already received about 6 inches in downtown Montreal, and it's still coming down, although not as heavily as it was an hour ago or 2 ago.. But considering that the forecast was calling for negligible snow accumulations, this is a very nice surprise.. :-)

Cheers,

Scratch

holy cow, nice to see you !

they are all slowly filtering in as the snow begins it seems

figured we had lost you too.......real good to see you posting here.

hopefully a few others will find their way over here eventually....

anyways, you gotta give Ottawa Blizzard credit, he was all over todays snowfall over the weekend, great call by him

it sure was nice to see real snow falling, seems like its been just about 11 months in montreal since we say anything like today......WAY too long.

and check out the GFS for next week! if only....

[LakeEffectKing]

GFS staying with the eastern solution....at 06z:

[CNY Mike]

GFS staying with the eastern solution....at 06z:

I'm going to follow the ECMWF and say that we'll have mix switch over to snow Sunday night. It'll be interesting to forecast come Friday-Saturday.

Also looks like a load of precip down your way, LEK!

[LakeEffectKing]

I'm going to follow the ECMWF and say that we'll have mix switch over to snow Sunday night. It'll be interesting to forecast come Friday-Saturday.

Mike, normally I'd agree with leaning toward the EC....however, the UKMET, Canadian, and event the NOGAPS, are closer the GFS solution, and GFS (other than yesterday's 18z run) have stayed with the colder (for us) solution.

Good snow pack around the lakes (not into the models) may help build a bit more of a cold dome, enough so that a fine line track prog MAY just end up a touch further toward the coast....Needless to say by next Monday night, LES and very cold air move back in....

[Sub_Zero]

GFS staying with the eastern solution....at 06z:

OMG guys, if this storm verifies, its 2007 all over again! Bring on the snow!!!

[LakeEffectKing]

And check out the Euro ens. mean:

[CNY Mike]

Where do you find euro data out to 144hrs? I've only been able to go out 72.

[Logan11]

This lake band has been sitting over me since the early morning hours again. I'd day another 2.5 to 3 inches has fallen. The two day total is probably 5 to 6 inches, but I'll need to go back into a cleared area of the woods to verify given the blowing situation. Basically yesterdays 3" was mostly blown off the lawn and now it looks deeper than it did yesterday so we replaced it. ..until the wind takes it away again. ...

Snow and 20F now....

Where do you find euro data out to 144hrs? I've only been able to go out 72.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

bust for Ottawa with the snow overnight unfortunately. The winds are really strong though

[LakeEffectKing]

Where do you find euro data out to 144hrs? I've only been able to go out 72.

Sorry Mike....clearing some white gold!! It's the tropical FSU site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[FEFD17]

Wow! We can only hope!!!!! I am (was) reluctant to put the plow on the truck from storage.I guess my next few nights I will be prepping it for the season.I am holding hope it will be mostly snow with the cold here now sitting at 21 degrees in Queensbury.

[CNY Mike]

Sorry Mike....clearing some white gold!! It's the tropical FSU site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Thanks

[Couchsachraga]

No snow overnight (or at all on the ground) in Queensbury or Johnsburg.

Waiting for next week.. and enjoying the excitement of it's potential for now.

I'm glad to see so many of you have gotten snow out of this storm... was a nice surprise for many

[CNYWeather]

GFS staying with the eastern solution....at 06z:

That 3" stripe down towards CNY looks mighty close to me.

[NorEaster27]

I cant seem to find any snowfall reports from syracuse, any help?

[skimore]

I cant seem to find any snowfall reports from syracuse, any help?

About 20" total up top in Tully

[Wx4cast]

GFS staying with the eastern solution....at 06z:

Just checked out the GEFS 06z data and compared it to the GEFS 00z data and its colder too with respect to Albany. Looks like T 850 may now barely nudge past 0C at KALB circa 00z-06z period 13 Dec per 06z ensemble data then crash in a major fashion. ptype probabilities are near the same this period for snw/rain for HV east but looks like mostly snow WNW through NW of Albany.

[FEFD17]

I just re-read the NWS long term forecast discussion.They really seem to be doubtful of this next storm having any kind of decent accumulating snow.They are really between a mostly liquid event or a mix. I have a question,if one model's solution is different from most all other model's and their solution's does it matter? I know it's really early to do any kind of forecasting I am just trying to figure what model says what and see the difference between wish casting and what happens

[CNYWeather]

I cant seem to find any snowfall reports from syracuse, any help?

...ONONDAGA COUNTY...

CLAY 16.3 914 AM 12/7

CLAY 16.2 715 AM 12/7 48 HR TOTAL 28.4

VAN BUREN 15.5 913 AM 12/7

SYRACUSE 14.5 912 AM 12/7

CLAY 11.9 914 AM 12/7

CAMILLUS 11.7 907 AM 12/7

TULLY 4.8 915 AM 12/7

TULLY 4.5 913 AM 12/7

HINSDALE 3.5 800 AM 12/7

BREWERTON 3.0 837 AM 12/7

[Organizing Low]

massive weenie bust here in montreal

we must be closing in on a foot or so, although its hard to tell as its blowing all over the place on fairly strong winds

looking at the radar, it doesnt even look impressive, but im guessing the reverse flow with the retro low is causing some sort of precip effect, perhaps some river effect thrown in too.

environment canada with all kinds of pie on their face this morning.

they were calling for 4-8cm (2-3inches) but instead with the snow and wind, its a flat out snowstorm that started before last ngihts rush hour and continued through this mornings rush hour.

huge huge bust, i feel bad for them, this one is going to resonate for a while.....a long while esp given its the first event of the season....but the NAM and GFS and Ottawa Blizzard were all over this depicting 6+ for several runs over the weekend.

i do feel bad for them, cleaning up this media relation mess with the millions of citizens wont be pretty.

[CoastalWx]

Just checked out the GEFS 06z data and compared it to the GEFS 00z data and its colder too with respect to Albany. Looks like T 850 may now barely nudge past 0C at KALB circa 00z-06z period 13 Dec per 06z ensemble data then crash in a major fashion. ptype probabilities are near the same this period for snw/rain for HV east but looks like mostly snow WNW through NW of Albany.

This could be a huge hit west of Albany...Maybe BGM to SYR or ROC??

[Sub_Zero]

OL, how's the Sunday storm looking for Montreal? TWN is saying rain and snow for you guys, while a little further west, they show an all out blizzard.

[Organizing Low]

OL, how's the Sunday storm looking for Montreal? TWN is saying rain and snow for you guys, while a little further west, they show an all out blizzard.

too early to call, but as of right now at this very minute, id rather be in ottawa.

but the solutions are still variable and i expect the final outcome will be different yet.

but the latest gfs solutions are epic for ottawa as well as CNY.

[Organizing Low]

i just looked at the 6z GFS

as depitcted on the GFS at 6z, this would be one of the worst SNOWstorm to hit eastern ontario and ottawa, in terms of severe conditions, since i can remember back through 1984.

i dont know about I-81 corridor, because i know you guys have had some wicked nor'easters and dont know if it could stack up to the Superstorm.

for ottawa, it would rival the 93 Superstorm (which was the worst snowstorm ive ever seen there) in terms of severe weather though the extreme cold and severe windchills would be lacking. the snow and potential wind would be worse.

it would be a crippling storm.

monday would be a writeoff across the city and the goverment would certainly shutdown..

this is as per the 6z GFS though, so its almost certainly not going to play out like this, and its probably all downhill from here.

[adk]

Not for nothing but as has been discussed on the upslope thread- the High Peaks have been crushed with over a foot of snow and likely above 3k 18 inches of snow. I've had some reports come in from BC skiers of Knee Deep in the woods at elevation.