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Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

Couchsachraga

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

Further east?

And LES that would probably be rippin' again in earnest by this time next week....I think Dec. '10 is going to set some records for snowfall in a city or two,....and in some of the snowbelts, I bet we get a quite a few reports of 100+" total for the month.....

I'll give 1:250,000 odds that someone within a county or two east of Erie or Ontario will have a white Christmas.....Takers??

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FEFD17

FEFD17

Posted
Posted

I just read The Albany NWS area discussion.It looks like they are leaning toward using the Ecmwf solution and calling for cold, storm/warm/rain then real cold after.I still say this pattern is just like last year.Cold&Inactive then just warm enough for a rain storm,only to go back to cold and inactive.I know it's real early for a storm prediction 5 days out,however with the temps being at or below normal for 5-8 days prior,I cannot figure why the warm up during a storm (snow to rain or just rain) to pull the cold air needed (to keep it all snow).Do the models have patterns ----La Nina/El-Nino parameters figured in?

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West Point, NY

West Point, NY

Posted
Posted

I just read The Albany NWS area discussion.It looks like they are leaning toward using the Ecmwf solution and calling for cold, storm/warm/rain then real cold after.I still say this pattern is just like last year.Cold&Inactive then just warm enough for a rain storm,only to go back to cold and inactive.I know it's real early for a storm prediction 5 days out,however with the temps being at or below normal for 5-8 days prior,I cannot figure why the warm up during a storm (snow to rain or just rain) to pull the cold air needed (to keep it all snow).Do the models have patterns ----La Nina/El-Nino parameters figured in?

Basically, if the storm is a decent size and it rides up west of you, it drives warmer air up from the south usually first at cloud level and eventually at the ground. In cases that the ground cold doesn't get scoured out, you get an ice storm. If the storm comes up to the east and there's cold to the north, it will get pulled down from the counterclockwise flow around the storm and keep it snow. Of course when temps are marginal and depending on the time of season, it can still rain regardless, but in this pattern, anything that passes east of NYC with a movement to the NE would be a snow event for the CD.....N&W
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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

So is this looking like a wester runner?

The Euro is really the only model that hasn't really wavered much the past 4 or so runs, depicting a warm solution for all of us....normally that would carry a good deal of weight....however, other models and their ensembles show quite a spread....so it's not like we have two camps....which indicates to me, we may have alot of pieces of energy that are being picked up on a various times during the runs. This may be the classic case where we need to dig real deep into the WV loops out in the Pac. to tease out the errors of the models...or wait until the energy arrives on shore....

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Avid6eek

Avid6eek

Posted
Posted

It's the dgex, but this is a dream storm for eastern New York:

http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

Now that would be nice. I've been enjoying the past couple days in the Buffalo area, and tomorrow I drive to Pittsburgh. Thursday I return home to the snowless CD. Overall next monday's storm will end up giving us a net gain of accumulated frozen precip...even if it is just a dusting at the end. A significant synoptic even for WNY followed by more lake effect would get you guys started on the right foot this winter.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

The Euro is really the only model that hasn't really wavered much the past 4 or so runs, depicting a warm solution for all of us....normally that would carry a good deal of weight....however, other models and their ensembles show quite a spread....so it's not like we have two camps....which indicates to me, we may have alot of pieces of energy that are being picked up on a various times during the runs. This may be the classic case where we need to dig real deep into the WV loops out in the Pac. to tease out the errors of the models...or wait until the energy arrives on shore....

Luckily we're not within the euro's deadly accurate range yet...which is really inside of 4.5 days. If the euro doesn't change its tune by tomorrow night's 00z run, I'll start to become concerned. Right now I'm rooting for snow at Jay Peak since my annual ski weekend is coming up from the 17th to the 19th...I can live with rain here in MA for a little while longer.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Not all parts of the CD are snowless ;):snowman:

Sometimes Lake Ontario looks kindly on us in ENY also...

KnoxHouse12072010.jpg

Now that would be nice. I've been enjoying the past couple days in the Buffalo area, and tomorrow I drive to Pittsburgh. Thursday I return home to the snowless CD. Overall next monday's storm will end up giving us a net gain of accumulated frozen precip...even if it is just a dusting at the end. A significant synoptic even for WNY followed by more lake effect would get you guys started on the right foot this winter.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

Luckily we're not within the euro's deadly accurate range yet...which is really inside of 4.5 days. If the euro doesn't change its tune by tomorrow night's 00z run, I'll start to become concerned. Right now I'm rooting for snow at Jay Peak since my annual ski weekend is coming up from the 17th to the 19th...I can live with rain here in MA for a little while longer.

You could use a little rain in the woods followed by another round of upslope awesome. Friends were all over the Greens today and reported knee deep blower around jay but punched through to almost the ground. Lots of rock induced falls and core shots. No base with 24 inches of 3% fluff is awesome but dangerous. Let that consolidate a little and then we're talking.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

Luckily we're not within the euro's deadly accurate range yet...which is really inside of 4.5 days. If the euro doesn't change its tune by tomorrow night's 00z run, I'll start to become concerned. Right now I'm rooting for snow at Jay Peak since my annual ski weekend is coming up from the 17th to the 19th...I can live with rain here in MA for a little while longer.

Yeah.....at 5 days out....no model is in it's deadly range, lol! I like the odds of at least WNY getting in on some "serious" stuff. We have a pretty fast flow that doesn't have a lot of divergence aloft (at H500 and above) that we typically see for some of the "biggies" wrt wound up storms. This actually works in our favor, IMO, as it will take a bit longer for the packets of energy (vorticity) to consolidate, which allows the entire trough to dig later (go neg. later) and to keep the trough axis a bit more progressive. Note that the model depictions that keep the wave weak (strung out) as it crests the ridge over the mountains, tend to be the eastern most solutions.

I think we will really need to have finer resolution sampling of the gyre to get a handle on the various solutions keying on various vorticity maxima....not easy to do, obviously by eye....so in 2 days or so when the entity comes ashore....(or fly a special UA sampling mission)...

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WNYLakeEffect

WNYLakeEffect

Posted
Posted

And LES that would probably be rippin' again in earnest by this time next week....I think Dec. '10 is going to set some records for snowfall in a city or two,....and in some of the snowbelts, I bet we get a quite a few reports of 100+" total for the month.....

I'll give 1:250,000 odds that someone within a county or two east of Erie or Ontario will have a white Christmas.....Takers??

No...Not here at least. The Grinch period happens nearly every year and won't fail again. The snowiest day of December is the 21st, but the least snowiest is the 23rd, followed by the 25th, followed by the 24th (there's 80-100 years of data in the averages). There's a rebound on the 26th, before it falls until the 2nd of January, which is the snowiest day of the year, just ahead of the 21st of December. There is not a daily snowfall record above 9.0" in that time period and the record for the 22nd is a pathetic 4.8". I haven't done an analysis on snowdepth, but it plays out pretty much the same. I won't ever predict a snowstorm from the 22nd through New Years or expect a white X-mas. Never.

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FEFD17

FEFD17

Posted
Posted

This is from the Albany AFD.

THEN...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL WORK

FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EASTWARD...BUT LIKELY TRACK TO THE

WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS

EVEN SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE SYSTEM...IMPLYING A

POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (AS OPPOSED TO SNOWFALL). THE TREND IS

FURTHER WEST BUT THERE STILL A CHANCE OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE

DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST AND HOLDING THE COLD AIR IN LONGER. FOR

NOW...GO WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW...WHICH WOULD

IMPLY A LITTLE WINTERY MIX AT THE ONSET...AND PERHAPS A CHANGEOVER

BACK TO SNOW AT THE END. KEEP IN MIND...IF THE ECMWF PROVES

CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM EVEN INTO

SUNDAY NIGHT.

BOTH MODELS INDICATE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GOES TO OUR WEST...IT WILL

DRIVE SOME ARCTIC AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT...AS ANOTHER ELONGATED

UPPER AIR TROUGH REOCCUPIES THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME...

THE GREENLAND BLOCK OR RIDGE ALOFT OVER GREENLAND (WHICH LOOKS TO

BRIEFLY WEAKEN) WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN

YESTERDAY/S RUN AND TODAY/S IS THAT THERE NO LONGER IS A STRONG

CUTOFF OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM

I have another question,why are these the only two models that this is based off from? Is there more accuracy with these two models than others at a certain range? I do lurk here a lot and notice that some people like the Euro and Ukie(?) a lot more.I am wondering more than I should but if you don't ask then you never learn either.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

You could use a little rain in the woods followed by another round of upslope awesome. Friends were all over the Greens today and reported knee deep blower around jay but punched through to almost the ground. Lots of rock induced falls and core shots. No base with 24 inches of 3% fluff is awesome but dangerous. Let that consolidate a little and then we're talking.

Even if the dgex verifies and Jay pulls off an all-snow event, it's likely to at least begin as a very dense (if not slushy) snow....so I think there will be much compaction/solidification of the snowpack regardless of the outcome. But I totally agree with you; consolidate the base, then add a fluffy mantle of powder on top and I'll be a happy guy!

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CNYWxGuy

CNYWxGuy

Posted
Posted

Another night of blindness. Wish we had a local doppler around BGM as they do in SYR thanks to WSYR...

88D NOTIFICATION MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

915 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2010

12/08/2010 0215 UTC

ADJACENT WFO`S...BUF...ALY...CTP...PHI...OKX.

KBGM WSR-88D REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. PARTS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IT IS UNKNOWN WHEN THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE.

LATER UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

PN

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OUtwister

OUtwister

Posted
Posted

Another night of blindness. Wish we had a local doppler around BGM as they do in SYR thanks to WSYR...

88D NOTIFICATION MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

915 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2010

12/08/2010 0215 UTC

ADJACENT WFO`S...BUF...ALY...CTP...PHI...OKX.

KBGM WSR-88D REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. PARTS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IT IS UNKNOWN WHEN THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE.

LATER UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

PN

Certainly has kept things interesting around here. Want to thank everyone for snow reports and current wx obs received thus far. You're about the only eyes we have right now. :thumbsup:

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

I'm trying to have realistic hopes and expectations for this upcoming storm. I think it highly unlikely this will be of the same magnitude as December 16,2007. For one thing, the daytime high on the 15th was minus 15 celcius without the windchill. This weekend, temperatures are expected to get into the mid 30s up ahead of this storm. Realistically I'm hoping for an 8-10 " storm with high winds blowing the snow into significant drifts.

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CNY Mike

CNY Mike

Posted
Posted

thumbsdownsmileyanim.gifpopcorn.gif

Hey, I've gotten a grand total of less than 10" with this storm... :guitar:

I'm trying to have realistic hopes and expectations for this upcoming storm. I think it highly unlikely this will be of the same magnitude as December 16,2007. For one thing, the daytime high on the 15th was minus 15 celcius without the windchill. This weekend, temperatures are expected to get into the mid 30s up ahead of this storm. Realistically I'm hoping for an 8-10 " storm with high winds blowing the snow into significant drifts.

Seems like a good hope. I think winds will be the main point of the storm, with snow being what this region can handle without a problem.

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CNYWxGuy

CNYWxGuy

Posted
Posted 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
952 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.  THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BINGHAMTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                    SNOWFALL       OF
                    (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT


NEW YORK

...BROOME COUNTY...
  BINGHAMTON REG        21.4   700 PM  12/7   TOTAL SINCE SAT
  CASTLE CREEK           7.0   637 PM  12/7   TOTAL SO FAR

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
  KORTRIGHT             18.0   410 PM  12/7   TOTAL SO FAR SINCE SAT

...ONONDAGA COUNTY...
  LIVERPOOL             32.0   840 PM  12/7   TOTAL SINCE SAT
  SYRACUSE              27.6   700 PM  12/7   TOTAL SINCE SAT

$$

Quite spectacular that BGM has broken the 20" mark for this event, although it wouldn't be possible without the advantage of elevation and placement downwind of the finger lakes (Cayuga Lake) compared to the Triple Cities portion of the county. I'm always amazed at the difference in accumulations between the Triple Cities and the Airport / NWS here in Maine, like night and day most times.

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