Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[Buffalo Bumble]

From WSYR:

(WSYR-TV, Syracuse) What a difference a week makes! Last Wednesday, we woke up to temperatures in the 60s, had flooding rains, ended with a minor snowfall and the winter switch was flipped with the arrival of December. We had some light snows develop late Friday night, then things really began in earnest Sunday. Since then, flakes have flown for just about every hour, and in this long duration event, we've surpassed 43.2" of snowfall for the storm in Syracuse through midnight. This rivals the snow we saw in the Blizzard of '66 (42.3") and the Blizzard of '93 (42.9").

Since this wasn't a "blizzard", I wonder how it will go down in the weather books for CNY... Maybe "Retrograding Snow Monster of '10"....

[CoastalWx]

What is the 5 day total for SYR? I thought they had 50" or so for the 4 days as of yesterday.

[Wx4cast]

What is the 5 day total for SYR? I thought they had 50" or so for the 4 days as of yesterday.

Leaving the "Dark-side"?

[Wx4cast]

I'm happy that you are doing well. .. ..I just wish, I was getting at least a little more than what I've been getting the last few days..

Never mind!

I think you and George will do well on the synoptic event and lake-enhancement Sunday then LES for much of next week too.

[Couchsachraga]

You are right. Most of the Adirondack range is included in the 6 million acre State Park. However. what most people think of as the Adirondacks encompasses a much smaller area. Unlike most mountain ranges the Adirondacks are not connected; instead they are a collection of around 100 peaks; 46 of which are called the High Peaks.

(Somehow I couldn't get Andy's post to be quoted too)

Agreed - Queensbury / Glens Falls is definitely Upper Hudson Valley in my book. When you start going towards Luzerne, and encounter West Mountain, or Prospect, you are encountering the Adirondack Massif, which as you noted is not part of the Appalachians.

Johnsburg is definitely Adirondacks (rock of Crane Mountain (and Gore IIRC) is the same as high peaks if that's the definition you want to use - in a previous career I was a geologist). We're really talking about a larger area that is being uplifted (mountains and valleys). Geography wise it is not that far from Blue Mountain Lake, which is the most commonly mentioned center of the park as it is currently defined.

Weather-wise given that it is larger than the state of Massachusetts it's fairly diverse, as you likely know better than I!

[Organizing Low]

What is the 5 day total for SYR? I thought they had 50" or so for the 4 days as of yesterday.

that was an error and has been adjusted since.

but i think they are over 40.

[CNYWeather]

7.6" for the week. I'll get my turn sometime soon.

Temps dropped off the table this morning. Bottomed out at 4°

If the skies clear out, probably near zero tonight. Forecast is 4.

[Wx4cast]

Well getting more interesting for the Sun-Mon event for many of us in this subforum.

Definitely looks like the system is trending towards the ECEFS and GEFS and op UK. Still have concerns over track of 2ndary LP. Where it goes will determine who gets dry-slotted and who gets the CCB/Def-zone wraparound precip across NYS.

Also getting some incredible wind "signals" from off of the GFS 00z and 06z runs running data in both WINGRIDDS and BUFKIT shows potential for period of 50kts across CNTL and ENY thru WNE during Monday.

I WILL update my thoughts this afternoon once I get home and can peruse the 12z data. Definitely another blog update in the making, too.

Here in the office I had a good conversation with "Cap" and we are "leaning" towards a snow perhaps a brief mix to start W thru NW of Albany and a brief mix elsewhere going to all snow by afternoon early evening. Since arctic air is involved with this system we really think that the models will continue to have trouble right up to perhaps the onset of the event. The NAM may actually be critical in its ability to get involved in the mix especially as it relates to its better resolution and usually better forecasting of arctic air.

[Gorizer]

Bottomed out at 9 here last night

Down to 11F here.

[Couchsachraga]

One of the highlights of the NWS site to me is the forecast discussion - especially when they seem to have a bit of a sense of humor about the situation. I usually don't post them here, as I assume everyone here likely reads their local discussion that is most pertinent to them... but this one bit I thought deserved sharing.

From the ALB discussion this morning:

.....................

IN SHORT...WE COULD END UP GETTING BURIED...FLOODED...OR A MESS OFSLOP AND SLEET...WITH THE LIKELY OUTCOME BEING MOSTLY SNOW NORTH ANDWEST...MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST...AND A MESSY MIX IN BETWEEN.

.................

I don't know if anyone from the ALB branch posts here, but if you read this, THANK YOU for all your hard work. I've tried to thank other great met's in the area like WX4Cast, but I realized I'd never thanked you folks too.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

At lest the GFS is the outliar, with the EURO, UKMET, and CMC having the low track further inland.

6z GFS is a little better, and would give us between 6-8" of snow in total I would think. While I would love to have 17", I'll take the 8" as it would make this city look a lot more festive.

[LakeEffectKing]

3.5" overnight....bringing my total to 45 or 46" (I have my talley sheet at home.....forgot where I left off). Bright sunny skies from L'pool into downtown. Campus must have received a good 8" overnight....

Nice blurb from BGM:

000

NOUS41 KBGM 090938

PNSBGM

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-

044-047-048-072-100945-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY

438 AM EST THU DEC 9 2010

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCES THE 4TH HIGHEST 4-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL

AT SYRACUSE NY...

VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGAN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS

MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR

PRODUCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

STARTING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MID-WEEK...A PERSISTENT WEST-

NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR PRODUCED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS MOST

OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING IN THE SYRACUSE

AREA. BELOW ARE SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS TAKEN AT THE AIRPORT IN

NORTH SYRACUSE AND WHERE THEY RANK. THESE MEASUREMENTS ARE THROUGH

MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

5-DAY TOTAL (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...44.3"(6TH PLACE ALL-TIME)

4-DAY TOTAL (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...43.2" (4TH PLACE ALL-TIME)

3-DAY TOTAL (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...36.4" (5TH PLACE ALL-TIME)

4-DAY TOTAL SNOWFALL RANKINGS

1) 44.6"....(2/1/1966)

2) 44.5"....(3/14/1993)

3) 44.3"....(1/31/1966)

4) 43.2"....(12/8/2010)

ONE MORE STAT FOR SYRACUSE. THE LONGEST STRETCH OF RECORDED SNOW

FOR THE EVENT WAS FROM SATURDAY DECEMBER 4TH AT 616 AM TO

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 8TH AT 810 AM...OR A TOTAL OF 97 HOURS AND 54 MINUTES.

$$

HEDEN

[LakeEffectKing]

What is the 5 day total for SYR? I thought they had 50" or so for the 4 days as of yesterday.

I think that was a mistake that was documented somewhere, but was retracted.....

[LakeEffectKing]

BTW, I think there will be ONE more little burst of snow or snowshowers swinging north off the lake sometime this late morning or afternoon. 850 ridge is NOT yet passed, and there have been numerous times over the last decade or so, when models failed to depict an organized band as surface winds backed, while the 850 ridge was still to the west....might be a bit of a surprise to some, with the flags dropped (ie...thinking it's completely done)

[Ottawa Blizzard]

We have to remember that 24 hour storm totals of 30+ cm (over a foot) are exceedingly rare and always have been, in Ottawa and Montreal, regardless of what some people say about them "always" being buried with snow back in the "old days". Honestly, one person posting on the CBC site last week said that when he was growing up in Ottawa in the early to mid 80s, there was always deep snowcover before Halloween and how the heavy rain on December 1st was therefore "proof" that winters aren't what they used to be be. I checked the Environment Canada data and could find no such year either in the 80s or the 70s! The only snowy Halloween I could find was halloween 1988 when 29cm fell the week before, but largely melted before the 31st. People's memories are very selective about the weather and they tend to remember the extremes. Also, there were different snow clearing techniques back in the old days which is why so many of the old photographs of montreal and Ottawa show snow piles measured in many feet. I'm sure people who are kids today will always remember the winter of 2007-2008 and how they waited for the schoolbus in knee deep snow and in their minds, as they get older, that will be the way "all" winters were. 2007-2008 was the third snowiest winter in Ottawa since Canadian Confederation in 1867. Unfortunately we can't expect that we'll get another big snow year just three years later.

[FEFD17]

One of the highlights of the NWS site to me is the forecast discussion - especially when they seem to have a bit of a sense of humor about the situation. I usually don't post them here, as I assume everyone here likely reads their local discussion that is most pertinent to them... but this one bit I thought deserved sharing.

From the ALB discussion this morning:

.....................

IN SHORT...WE COULD END UP GETTING BURIED...FLOODED...OR A MESS OFSLOP AND SLEET...WITH THE LIKELY OUTCOME BEING MOSTLY SNOW NORTH ANDWEST...MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST...AND A MESSY MIX IN BETWEEN.

.................

I don't know if anyone from the ALB branch posts here, but if you read this, THANK YOU for all your hard work. I've tried to thank other great met's in the area like WX4Cast, but I realized I'd never thanked you folks too.

And that thank you is goes double for me too.I have been trying to figure things out,but it's a tough thing.Thanks to EVERYONE...ESP those who answer my noob questions.

[Organizing Low]

We have to remember that 24 hour storm totals of 30+ cm (over a foot) are exceedingly rare and always have been, in Ottawa and Montreal, regardless of what some people say about them "always" being buried with snow back in the "old days". Honestly, one person posting on the CBC site last week said that when he was growing up in Ottawa in the early to mid 80s, there was always deep snowcover before Halloween and how the heavy rain on December 1st was therefore "proof" that winters aren't what they used to be be. I checked the Environment Canada data and could find no such year either in the 80s or the 70s! The only snowy Halloween I could find was halloween 1988 when 29cm fell the week before, but largely melted before the 31st. People's memories are very selective about the weather and they tend to remember the extremes. Also, there were different snow clearing techniques back in the old days which is why so many of the old photographs of montreal and Ottawa show snow piles measured in many feet. I'm sure people who are kids today will always remember the winter of 2007-2008 and how they waited for the schoolbus in knee deep snow and in their minds, as they get older, that will be the way "all" winters were. 2007-2008 was the third snowiest winter in Ottawa since Canadian Confederation in 1867. Unfortunately we can't expect that we'll get another big snow year just three years later.

good post

theres still hope for the weekend, we need things to come together faster along the coast, like they did earelier in the week runs, of course i knew at looking at those it was all downhill from there...

theres still time and the models are still waffling, which means we have time.

[Organizing Low]

LEK, that 1993 figure for Syracuse.....was that the total that included the Superstorm, or was it the lake effect that occurred behind the storm?

[Wx4cast]

One of the highlights of the NWS site to me is the forecast discussion - especially when they seem to have a bit of a sense of humor about the situation. I usually don't post them here, as I assume everyone here likely reads their local discussion that is most pertinent to them... but this one bit I thought deserved sharing.

From the ALB discussion this morning:

.....................

IN SHORT...WE COULD END UP GETTING BURIED...FLOODED...OR A MESS OFSLOP AND SLEET...WITH THE LIKELY OUTCOME BEING MOSTLY SNOW NORTH ANDWEST...MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST...AND A MESSY MIX IN BETWEEN.

.................

I don't know if anyone from the ALB branch posts here, but if you read this, THANK YOU for all your hard work. I've tried to thank other great met's in the area like WX4Cast, but I realized I'd never thanked you folks too.

That was written Bob Kilpatrick. A really good guy and he does have a great sense of humor, too.

[LakeEffectKing]

LEK, that 1993 figure for Syracuse.....was that the total that included the Superstorm, or was it the lake effect that occurred behind the storm?

Just the storm, as there was little to any LES behind it as there was not much cold air afterward.....except for 12 hours or so after the snow tapered off (the wraparound)

I'm sure there was some "enhancement". Also remember, at that time of year, L. Ontario requires 850's to be at least -12 to barely get LES going.....and we only had a short window below that...not to mention, the air dried out pretty good.

[CNYWeather]

And that thank you is goes double for me too.I have been trying to figure things out,but it's a tough thing.Thanks to EVERYONE...ESP those who answer my noob questions.

Me too.

It would be kinda nice to maybe know which office the mets on here are from. If they are from BGM, ALB, BUF or whichever.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

3.5" overnight....bringing my total to 45 or 46" (I have my talley sheet at home.....forgot where I left off). Bright sunny skies from L'pool into downtown. Campus must have received a good 8" overnight....

Nice blurb from BGM:

000

NOUS41 KBGM 090938

PNSBGM

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-

044-047-048-072-100945-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY

438 AM EST THU DEC 9 2010

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCES THE 4TH HIGHEST 4-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL

AT SYRACUSE NY...

VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGAN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS

MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR

PRODUCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

STARTING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MID-WEEK...A PERSISTENT WEST-

NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR PRODUCED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS MOST

OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING IN THE SYRACUSE

AREA. BELOW ARE SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS TAKEN AT THE AIRPORT IN

NORTH SYRACUSE AND WHERE THEY RANK. THESE MEASUREMENTS ARE THROUGH

MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

5-DAY TOTAL (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...44.3"(6TH PLACE ALL-TIME)

4-DAY TOTAL (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...43.2" (4TH PLACE ALL-TIME)

3-DAY TOTAL (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...36.4" (5TH PLACE ALL-TIME)

4-DAY TOTAL SNOWFALL RANKINGS

1) 44.6"....(2/1/1966)

2) 44.5"....(3/14/1993)

3) 44.3"....(1/31/1966)

4) 43.2"....(12/8/2010)

ONE MORE STAT FOR SYRACUSE. THE LONGEST STRETCH OF RECORDED SNOW

FOR THE EVENT WAS FROM SATURDAY DECEMBER 4TH AT 616 AM TO

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 8TH AT 810 AM...OR A TOTAL OF 97 HOURS AND 54 MINUTES.

$

HEDEN

Any idea on how totals have varied around the area? Were SYR and Liverpool ground zero for this event? Or have have any other areas to the N or S gotten hit even harder? My in-laws are down in Camillus, I haven't seen any totals down that way, just curious how they would've compared total wise.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

some through-the-screen shots sent from my MiL in Camillus

[Wx4cast]

Okay here is a tid-bit to keep in mind. The OP models are still somewhat diverse on the surface LP placement and track for the end of the weekend and beginning of next week storm BUT they are consistent on the track of the 700 hPa LP system. The CONSISTENCY that most dare I say ALL of the models have on this feature is consistent from model to model and from one model run to the next (yeah I know you can't say this as it relates to the EC and UK, for the latter beyond 72 hours forecast time).

A general rule when this 700 hPa feature tracks along or south of a CHI-YUL (Chicago-Montreal) line a secondary storm will form along the coast. Where the secondary forms is determined by the degree of cold air damming that occurs along the coastal plain. Of note too is that the EC and GFS and anomaly data are showing the greatest anomalous hights associated with the Southern-stream short wave. This is the short that the UK has been concentrating on and now the other primary models are as well.

Looking at forecast data at the tropopause level it looks like the secondary will start to intensify over central NC during Sunday AM and probably track NNE from there to along the NYS/WNE border by Monday morning with rapid deepening. There is a chance that it could track a bit farther east bisecting LI and running along or a bit east of the Ct River Valley; still too early to be totally confident on the track at this point in time.

Since the 700 feature looks to track south of the CHI-YUL line confidence IS rather high with the 2ndary development occurring to the SE of the h700 low over the SEUS. This development should shift the colder air more east and south across a good portion of PA (central points on west) and across most of NYS, save for the SE parts north to the mid-Hudson Valley (Hudson/Poughkeepsie). However these areas of SENY could change over to snow on the tail of the storm pending on both the location of the dry slot and the deformation zone on the back side of the storm and both of these features are directly tied to the track of the secondary LP.

The forecast central height of the 700 hPa feature is also critical, too. If it is is < 3000 meters the probability for for snow beneath it and off to the west through north of the track of it greatly increases.

[Tornado Girl]

Okay here is a tid-bit to keep in mind. The OP models are still somewhat diverse on the surface LP placement and track for the end of the weekend and beginning of next week storm BUT they are consistent on the track of the 700 hPa LP system. The CONSISTENCY that most dare I say ALL of the models have on this feature is consistent from model to model and from one model run to the next (yeah I know you can't say this as it relates to the EC and UK, for the latter beyond 72 hours forecast time).

A general rule when this 700 hPa feature tracks along or south of a CHI-YUL (Chicago-Montreal) line a secondary storm will form along the coast. Where the secondary forms is determined by the degree of cold air damming that occurs along the coastal plain. Of note too is that the EC and GFS and anomaly data are showing the greatest anomalous hights associated with the Southern-stream short wave. This is the short that the UK has been concentrating on and now the other primary models are as well.

Looking at forecast data at the tropopause level it looks like the secondary will start to intensify over central NC during Sunday AM and probably track NNE from there to along the NYS/WNE border by Monday morning with rapid deepening. There is a chance that it could track a bit farther east bisecting LI and running along or a bit east of the Ct River Valley. till too early to be totally confident on the track at this point in time.

Since the 700 feature looks to track south of the CHI-YUL line confidence IS rather high with the 2ndary development occurring to the SE of the h700 low over the SEUS. This development should shift the colder air more east and south across a good portion of PA (central points on west) and across most of NYC save for the SE parts north to the mid-Hudson Valley (Hudson/Poughkeepsie). However these areas of SENY could change over to snow on the tail of the storm pending on both the location of the dry slot and the deformation zone on the back side of the storm and both of these features are directly tied to the track of the secondary LP.

The forecast central height of the 700 hPa feature is also critical, too. If it is is < 3000 meters the probability for for snow beneath it and off to the west through north of the track of it greatly increases.

I've been keeping my power dry, waiting to see if the models would make up their mind. So far, they don't seem to want to do that... So, I thought I would chime in. This is the way I see it right now. And don't hold me to this, the parameters are still to dynamic. The forecast for the Hudson Valley will be a lot little more tricky than it will me for me. I will see more in the way of snow out of this regardless of where the Secondary forms..right now I just don't know if it will be all snow or mostly snow. As for the HV and GFL, right now it looks more like a mixed bag...you will be a lot more sensitive to the secondary low's placement than I will IMO. If the Secondary bombs it will have the arctic air screaming in here which will cause the precipitation to change over snow very early. I think the two factors to watch will be where the negative tilt sets up when the trough forms, because this will dictate where the secondary forms. If it forms far enough south we're are all in business. The second thing will be how fast and how far the secondary deepens. if it bombs (worse case or best case take your pick) we could be throwing the blizzard word around up in interior NYS If everything comes together just right.

[LakeEffectKing]

Any idea on how totals have varied around the area? Were SYR and Liverpool ground zero for this event? Or have have any other areas to the N or S gotten hit even harder? My in-laws are down in Camillus, I haven't seen any totals down that way, just curious how they would've compared total wise.

I think it was pretty well spread out for generally much of the county. My supervisor is from Camillus, and my wife works there, and they both report similar "look" as in L'pool.

I can say that at SU, we may have recieved 8-10" less....but that is just going by eyeball, and there really isn't much of a difference.

[LakeEffectKing]

some through-the-screen shots sent from my MiL in Camillus

Yep....looks just like my place!!!! Quite an event!!!

[Mr. Windcredible!]

I think it was pretty well spread out for generally much of the county. My supervisor is from Camillus, and my wife works there, and they both report similar "look" as in L'pool.

I can say that at SU, we may have recieved 8-10" less....but that is just going by eyeball, and there really isn't much of a difference.

yeah...from what I could tell from watching...this didn't seem quite as localized as some LE events. seemed like a much broader area got the good totals.

I told my wife the other day I'm gonna make her go up an visit during a LE event one of these years. Looks like this would've been the one, probably gonna be awhile before you guys see another one to this magnitude.

[Organizing Low]

Just the storm, as there was little to any LES behind it as there was not much cold air afterward.....except for 12 hours or so after the snow tapered off (the wraparound)

I'm sure there was some "enhancement". Also remember, at that time of year, L. Ontario requires 850's to be at least -12 to barely get LES going.....and we only had a short window below that...not to mention, the air dried out pretty good.

ok

yeah i was just wondering why they would include 1993 in a '4 day total'

[Organizing Low]

Okay here is a tid-bit to keep in mind. The OP models are still somewhat diverse on the surface LP placement and track for the end of the weekend and beginning of next week storm BUT they are consistent on the track of the 700 hPa LP system. The CONSISTENCY that most dare I say ALL of the models have on this feature is consistent from model to model and from one model run to the next (yeah I know you can't say this as it relates to the EC and UK, for the latter beyond 72 hours forecast time).

A general rule when this 700 hPa feature tracks along or south of a CHI-YUL (Chicago-Montreal) line a secondary storm will form along the coast. Where the secondary forms is determined by the degree of cold air damming that occurs along the coastal plain. Of note too is that the EC and GFS and anomaly data are showing the greatest anomalous hights associated with the Southern-stream short wave. This is the short that the UK has been concentrating on and now the other primary models are as well.

Looking at forecast data at the tropopause level it looks like the secondary will start to intensify over central NC during Sunday AM and probably track NNE from there to along the NYS/WNE border by Monday morning with rapid deepening. There is a chance that it could track a bit farther east bisecting LI and running along or a bit east of the Ct River Valley; still too early to be totally confident on the track at this point in time.

Since the 700 feature looks to track south of the CHI-YUL line confidence IS rather high with the 2ndary development occurring to the SE of the h700 low over the SEUS. This development should shift the colder air more east and south across a good portion of PA (central points on west) and across most of NYS, save for the SE parts north to the mid-Hudson Valley (Hudson/Poughkeepsie). However these areas of SENY could change over to snow on the tail of the storm pending on both the location of the dry slot and the deformation zone on the back side of the storm and both of these features are directly tied to the track of the secondary LP.

The forecast central height of the 700 hPa feature is also critical, too. If it is is < 3000 meters the probability for for snow beneath it and off to the west through north of the track of it greatly increases.

thanks for the great post!