weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 What do you think, Ekster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 6-01-11 redux? I dont think well have an F2-F3 hold for 40 miles lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 NAM has a strong ML cape around 650-550mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 10, 2011 Author Share Posted July 10, 2011 It seems like a difficult forecast pinpointing and timing the next several days, that is for sure. However, I'll take the fast w wnw flow aloft all day every day. ...NEW ENGLAND AND VICINITY... THOUGH DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE FRONT CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS MARGINAL AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION -- WITH LINEAR MODE ANTICIPATED. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 somewhat interesting set-up for Tuesday. one thing that gives pause is SNE spends an awful long time in the right exit region of a pretty strong UL jet. doesn't mean nothing can fire off and go but maybe NNE is better positioned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I dont think well have an F2-F3 hold for 40 miles lol lol! i know...just being a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 somewhat interesting set-up for Tuesday. one thing that gives pause is SNE spends an awful long time in the right exit region of a pretty strong UL jet. doesn't mean nothing can fire off and go but maybe NNE is better positioned? Coast of Maine is pretty unstable actually. Some of the parameters are good, especially on the NAM. GFS is a bit faster with the front, but the euro also leaves only a little wiggle room for parts of SNE. 0-6KM Shear about 40-45 kts or so. CAPE looks good on the NAM too with around 2000J ML CAPE (obviously TD dependent here). Good surface to 500mb crossover vectors, especially central and eastern areas. Some of the downfalls though seem to be lack of decent s/w forcing until evening time. Jet placement is better for Maine as well. Could be one of those things like on June 1st where perhaps something develops during the day, but then we get a nice line forming along the actual cold front, once the good s/w forcing arrives? I've seen questionable setups produce, so it is possible to get something decent (perhaps BOS-HFD?). I noticed the SREFs and NAM like that area just mentioned, but we are pretty far out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 There also could be something coming through Monday night along a s/w, but that is more uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 NAM still a little iffy with timing, but looks like it brings convection more with the actual cold front. SREFs still seem to target I-84 region to BOS area it seems. Much better support with the actual front, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Looks decent up here for Tuesday in Maine? Any chance for some stuff Monday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Looks decent up here for Tuesday in Maine? Any chance for some stuff Monday night? Awesome wx up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Awesome wx up there? It's unreal. I just posted a pic on Facebook. Gorgeous weather and the house is sweet. Heavy heavy drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Awesome wx up there? Id be content with 6 days of sun and 1 of svr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 NAM still a little iffy with timing, but looks like it brings convection more with the actual cold front. SREFs still seem to target I-84 region to BOS area it seems. Much better support with the actual front, though. BUFKIT is actually a little more impressive tomorrow for BAF and ORE. Showing @ or > that 1,000 SBCAPE and brief spike in helicity to 120 around 7pm, at which time llv cap is temporarily desolved - abused by evaporating towers at dusk. I could see an isolate interesting cell or two late tomorrow. As for Tuesday, it looks like we CINH ahead of the fropa - could just be the one run but the lower troposphere wind at both locations backs wnw and it's over by 1pm... I'm wondering if there's a prefrontal trough that acts like a dry line and then whips out to sea. I have seen impressive set ups get robbed away to anitclimax results because of the idiosyncrasy of New England's home grown "dry line" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 BUFKIT is actually a little more impressive tomorrow for BAF and ORE. Showing @ or > that 1,000 SBCAPE and brief spike in helicity to 120 around 7pm, at which time llv cap is temporarily desolved - abused by evaporating towers at dusk. I could see an isolate interesting cell or two late tomorrow. As for Tuesday, it looks like we CINH ahead of the fropa - could just be the one run but the lower troposphere wind at both locations backs wnw and it's over by 1pm... I'm wondering if there's a prefrontal trough that acts like a dry line and then whips out to sea. I have seen impressive set ups get robbed away to anitclimax results because of the idiosyncrasy of New England's home grown "dry line" GFS really dries us out on Tuesday as well. Does show a nice KI surge MOnday night with s/w passage, so perhaps maybe some storms around, but probably won't know until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I'm not all that concerned about the timing on Tuesday, I think the GFS is a bit fast. Even the NAM which is slower I would think is a bit fast by a few hours. I don't think we'll see much in the way of clud debris on Tuesday, especially down here in CT with the w/nw flow aloft. I'm more worried about: 1. sfc/BL winds...do they end up being more westerly which would allow for dry air to mix down into the BL and to the sfc mixing out dews limiting instability. 2. Potential cap around 700-600mb...NAM soundings show a fairly strong cap here 3. ML lapse rates look pretty horrible One thing we can likely agree on right now is we will at least see some torrential rains likely causing some flooding issues, especially in spots hit hard on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I'm not all that concerned about the timing on Tuesday, I think the GFS is a bit fast. Even the NAM which is slower I would think is a bit fast by a few hours. I don't think we'll see much in the way of clud debris on Tuesday, especially down here in CT with the w/nw flow aloft. I'm more worried about: 1. sfc/BL winds...do they end up being more westerly which would allow for dry air to mix down into the BL and to the sfc mixing out dews limiting instability. 2. Potential cap around 700-600mb...NAM soundings show a fairly strong cap here 3. ML lapse rates look pretty horrible One thing we can likely agree on right now is we will at least see some torrential rains likely causing some flooding issues, especially in spots hit hard on Friday. GFS may be a little fast, but def some questions Tuesday. I do think something could come through tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Euro is definitely not as dry in the mid levels as the GFS is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 GFS may be a little fast, but def some questions Tuesday. I do think something could come through tomorrow night. Does look like some s/w energy passes just to our north tomorrow night, with some elevated instability...even some weak sfc-based instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 15z SPC SREF coming out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 18z NAM does look a little more favorable timing-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 18z NAM does look a little more favorable timing-wise. Sure does, while the 15z SPC SREF says take the severe wx threat, shine it up real nice, and stick it up our candy asses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Sure does, while the 15z SPC SREF says take the severe wx threat, shine it up real nice, and stick it up our candy asses. what the hell does this mean ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 what the hell does this mean ? It means the 15z SPC SREF virtually gives us little in the way of severe wx threat...probably more of a heavy rain/flash flooding threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 It means the 15z SPC SREF virtually gives us little in the way of severe wx threat...probably more of a heavy rain/flash flooding threat. I don't see how it looks much different than the previous runs. Still similar thunderstorm and severe thunderstorms probs especially from HFD to TAN. The threat diminished for western CT and MA on the latest run though...looks better for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I don't see how it looks much different than the previous runs. Still similar thunderstorm and severe thunderstorms probs especially from HFD to TAN. The threat diminished for western CT and MA on the latest run though...looks better for eastern areas. Kind of looks like the probs decreased...especially with the craven sig svr...smaller area of 20000 while past runs had 30000+. Not sure if you're aware of this but if you click on the individual hour scale a separate page comes up and you can compare past runs to that hour. Here are the severe wx probs for 21z Tuesday from the 15z run and you can compare them to past runs for 21z Tuesday...as you will see it decreaed the svr probs BIG time http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f054&startdate=2011071015&field=SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__ Here is the craven sig svr probs http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f054&startdate=2011071015&field=SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Kind of looks like the probs decreased...especially with the craven sig svr...smaller area of 20000 while past runs had 30000+. Not sure if you're aware of this but if you click on the individual hour scale a separate page comes up and you can compare past runs to that hour. Here are the severe wx probs for 21z Tuesday from the 15z run and you can compare them to past runs for 21z Tuesday...as you will see it decreaed the svr probs BIG time http://www.spc.noaa....3HR_SVR_PROBS__ Here is the craven sig svr probs http://www.spc.noaa....B_MEDIAN_MXMN__ FROPA is faster...look at 18z. That's when everything peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 FROPA is faster...look at 18z. That's when everything peaks. Yeah...I'm still not really buying this faster fropa solution. I still think we end up seeing a slower fropa, even slower than what the slowest models are showing...we've seen that happen with the past 3 or 4 of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Yeah...I'm still not really buying this faster fropa solution. I still think we end up seeing a slower fropa, even slower than what the slowest models are showing...we've seen that happen with the past 3 or 4 of them. slower FROPA is better...severe weather indices are peaking now at 18z and dropping afterwards. We'd like to see them peaking at 21z or so again IMO. The reason they probably dropped slightly in magnitude this run was because everything didn't fully destabilize before the front came through, still the severe weather parameters are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 slower FROPA is better...severe weather indices are peaking now at 18z and dropping afterwards. We'd like to see them peaking at 21z or so again IMO. The reason they probably dropped slightly in magnitude this run was because everything didn't fully destabilize before the front came through, still the severe weather parameters are pretty good. I really would not be surprised to see a FROPA actually past 0z which would still be great, especially for northern sections. This would certainly allow for sufficient heating/destabilization and shear actually increases even more late in the evening and helicity even spikes a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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