#NoPoles Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 BUFKIT is actually a little more impressive tomorrow for BAF and ORE. Showing @ or > that 1,000 SBCAPE and brief spike in helicity to 120 around 7pm, at which time llv cap is temporarily desolved - abused by evaporating towers at dusk. I could see an isolate interesting cell or two late tomorrow. As for Tuesday, it looks like we CINH ahead of the fropa - could just be the one run but the lower troposphere wind at both locations backs wnw and it's over by 1pm... I'm wondering if there's a prefrontal trough that acts like a dry line and then whips out to sea. I have seen impressive set ups get robbed away to anitclimax results because of the idiosyncrasy of New England's home grown "dry line" watched NECN and Tim Kelley tonight...he expressed the same concerns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 21z SPC SREF still on the faster side with the fropa while the 0z NAM is much slower and has a good deal of instability...still some concerns though on the 0z NAM...strong ML cap and BL winds veering to the west then northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Well off to bed...going into work at 6:00 AM...will be waking up at 4:30 AM to look over the rest of the 0z models and the new SPC day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Well off to bed...going into work at 6:00 AM...will be waking up at 4:30 AM to look over the rest of the 0z models and the new SPC day 2. Please post images at 430 Tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I really would not be surprised to see a FROPA actually past 0z which would still be great, especially for northern sections. This would certainly allow for sufficient heating/destabilization and shear actually increases even more late in the evening and helicity even spikes a bit. NAM looks decent on the 00z run. It looks like it has a pre-frontal feature go through late aftn, with the actual cold front coming through early evening. Maybe a few storms along that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 NAM looks decent on the 00z run. It looks like it has a pre-frontal feature go through late aftn, with the actual cold front coming through early evening. Maybe a few storms along that as well. I would actually prefer for the storms to be associated with the pre-frontal trough, especially if you want discrete development, however, it all depends on the wind direction too, if BL winds are veering (such as what the NAM kind of hints at) more to the west that is not good at all. If those BL winds and sfc winds can be more S/SW it would be much more beneficial. It's impossible to pinpoint something like that though this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 0z GFS did slow down a bit...6z NAM slower as well and highly unstable, even though those dews are high they may be pretty close to verifying as some really juicy air gets pumped in. Still dealing with the same issues basically; mainly with what the winds do in the BL and at the sfc...if they do veer west at all it will really dry things out and perhaps mix out the dews lowering the svr threat; if they can stay SW or even S that will keep the dry air from mixing down and it will increase convergence either along the pre-frontal trough or cold front and enhance svr threat. Damaging winds look to be the main threat along with torrential rains/flash flooding...can't rule out some hail though, especially in the really strong updrafts or any discrete storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 0z GFS did slow down a bit...6z NAM slower as well and highly unstable, even though those dews are high they may be pretty close to verifying as some really juicy air gets pumped in. Still dealing with the same issues basically; mainly with what the winds do in the BL and at the sfc...if they do veer west at all it will really dry things out and perhaps mix out the dews lowering the svr threat; if they can stay SW or even S that will keep the dry air from mixing down and it will increase convergence either along the pre-frontal trough or cold front and enhance svr threat. Damaging winds look to be the main threat along with torrential rains/flash flooding...can't rule out some hail though, especially in the really strong updrafts or any discrete storms. I think we (someone) gets destroyed before the cool, dry airmass punches in, personally. That probably deserves a few buns, I'm liking the setup despite a few negatives still lingering. Watch, we get a dry cf passage now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Maybe 5 TOR's tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 ZzzzZzzZz Is this threat dead? If not when are we looking at storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 ZzzzZzzZz Is this threat dead? If not when are we looking at storms? Probably will get the run-around in our area. Best shot is tomorrow to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Probably will get the run-around in our area. Best shot is tomorrow to the south. That sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 if ryan is staying up in Maine this week...he stands a good shot at seeing something i'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I'll be in Waltham in the morning and then Boston after lunch all day tomorrow for the kick off to our fiscal year..Doing some sort of fun/secret actvity. Hopefully Eastern mass won't disappoint me for severe tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 I'll be in Waltham in the morning and then Boston after lunch all day tomorrow for the kick off to our fiscal year..Doing some sort of fun/secret actvity. Hopefully Eastern mass won't disappoint me for severe tomorrow that is like someone from the Monads traveling to NYC and hoping winter doesn't disappoint them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I'll be in Waltham in the morning and then Boston after lunch all day tomorrow for the kick off to our fiscal year..Doing some sort of fun/secret actvity. Hopefully Eastern mass won't disappoint me for severe tomorrow Where's the best SVR threat as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 if ryan is staying up in Maine this week...he stands a good shot at seeing something i'd think I'm I'm central Maine near skowhegan. May see something this afternoon or evening then more tomorrow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 Moderate risk for lower lakes/ upper OV . GOOD sign And SPC earlier today ...NEW ENGLAND... MODEST DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW STORMS -- POSSIBLY ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY...TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE AREA. AIDED BY MODERATELY STRONG/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLYS THROUGH A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAYER...ORGANIZED STORMS -- LIKELY EVOLVING INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS -- SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY...ACCOMPANIED BY THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/MOVE OFFSHORE BY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I'm I'm central Maine near skowhegan. May see something this afternoon or evening then more tomorrow?? NAM for KAUG below... you've got the added benefit of being in the LFQ whereas most of SNE is RFQ. this isn't too shabby: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Wow those soundings look great! Thanks for sharing Phil. I have wifi here but no cell service and no computer. iPhone ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Moderate risk for lower lakes/ upper OV . GOOD sign And SPC earlier today ...NEW ENGLAND... MODEST DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW STORMS -- POSSIBLY ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY...TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE AREA. AIDED BY MODERATELY STRONG/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLYS THROUGH A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAYER...ORGANIZED STORMS -- LIKELY EVOLVING INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS -- SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY...ACCOMPANIED BY THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/MOVE OFFSHORE BY EVENING. Is that for today of tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 If that front is slow enough, parts of Maine..esp srn and ern could get hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 If that front is slow enough, parts of Maine..esp srn and ern could get hit pretty good. What are we looking at for timing wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 What are we looking at for timing wise? I guess something after 1pm. Maybe 4-5 for BOS on se. It's really close for MHT since the pre frontal trough might already have passed by at that point. If that's the case, then you have to hope some stuff fires along the actual CF, which may be more hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 Imagine how psyched WIz would be to be living in Pontiac MI right now. Strong cluster moving in with a bow to the west, two-three hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I guess something after 1pm. Maybe 4-5 for BOS on se. It's really close for MHT since the pre frontal trough might already have passed by at that point. If that's the case, then you have to hope some stuff fires along the actual CF, which may be more hard to do. That might mean CT is too far west tomorrow which would just destroy Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I guess something after 1pm. Maybe 4-5 for BOS on se. It's really close for MHT since the pre frontal trough might already have passed by at that point. If that's the case, then you have to hope some stuff fires along the actual CF, which may be more hard to do. Thanks.. so we want a slow down of the front today? Hopefully that's the case. Could use some rain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Think we see a SVR watch today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 ha. SnowNH, Looks like Wednesday (after all) will be the best chance of storms for S NH....with the colder upper level airmass and less downsloping. We always do better with a NW to N mean wind, or SW to S...but never west. That also can apply to winter. Not to turn this into a SNH thread, just to keep snowNH from bombarding with the IMBY posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 ha. SnowNH, Looks like Wednesday (after all) will be the best chance of storms for S NH....with the colder upper level airmass and less downsloping. We always do better with a NW to N mean wind, or SW to S...but never west. That also can apply to winter. Not to turn this into a SNH thread, just to keep snowNH from bombarding with the IMBY posts. Lol.. well have 3 days of storms.. hopefully something hits here.. On the other hand I have My golf tournament on Friday.. hopefully we don't get a TON of rain to cancel it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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