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July 4th Holiday weekend wx


Damage In Tolland

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I'm a little hesitant to accept the 00z Euro op at face value :yikes: I don't think anyone called for a complete disaster either, but certainly still NO prolonged heat on the way. Looks fairly seasonable. A few warm days were expected.

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Not sure what you folks are seeing..Euro has been awful in the 6-10 day timeframe...no support..

Warm summer weekend it is

TEMPS...BUT WILL SEE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL. HIGHS MAINLY IN

THE 80S EXCEPT 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY...WARM FRONT APPROACHES...AND INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE

DIFFERING OPINIONS AS TO ITS PASSAGE AND PRECIP IF ANY THAT MAY

COME. AT THIS POINT...DID MENTION A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE

POPS AS IT MOVES NE AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THIS COULD PASS

WITH LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY ON SW WINDS.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...EXCEPT 70S ALONG THE S COAST.

SATURDAY...SOME QUESTION IN PLACE ABOUT FRONT THAT MAY STALL ACROSS

OR S OF THE REGION. HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING BUT KEPT A MAINLY

DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW. WILL SEE SUMMER TEMPS AS WELL

The irony being that the 00z operational Euro serves your warm ideas the best -

The difference between the GFS and the Euro in the D 6-10 frames is the positioning of high latitude blocking; the GFS puts it near Baffin Island and the Euro closer to Alaska (farther west than its own ensemble mean) - that profoundly effects the positioning of the westerlies near 45 N in a different way. The 00z op Euro results in a strong ridge along 90W/45N, along with very hot push coming in from D9 onwards... Where as the GFS has a teleconnected trough over the MA due to having its said block over far eastern Canada.

Which is correct?

Good question - you are correct that the Euro has been bad in the D6-10 range; that is also true at any time of year. The model is absurdly accurate through about D4.5, then gets shaky on D5...then falls off into vagarious verificaiton and is no better than the GFS in the extended. Personally, the op GFS is better fitted with its own ensemble mean for the current D6-10 range, whereas the op Euro is slightly askew. It doesn't mean the GFS is 100% going to happen, but any separation from one's own chorus tends to lend less confidence to that voice in this show. There's that ... and season trend has been to whack these ridges down just about as fast as they have emerged, with verification opting to -NAO 'esque appeals at least excuse imaginable. Tough to go against that, too...

I'd say it is at least monitorable for that time range. As for the Dnow-5... Today is demonstrating why a near solstice sun amid sapphire heavens will cook MOS. We're likely to bust slight cool there I would think... We do have some fair weather CU bubbling about the region at this point, but sufficient insolation is still on-going to assume we can process the llv thickness a bit more. We are nearing 80 most sites away from the ocean as of noon already. Perhaps 2-5 above manual guidance should do it. That said, with the FRH data showing no significant alternation in the vertial thermal layout through 84 hours and this is balanced well enough against the synoptic layout/evolution through D5 it would seem entirely possible if not likely that 84F could verify for many of those afternoons.

One catch, the Euro did show a fairly impressive convective appeal later Tuesday; not sure how cool it may be in the back side of that, but seeing as the model is so good at least through D5, and it is flatter than the GFS thereafter, it may be a good bet that any cool down would be short lived.

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Yeah, we finally are registering a day up this way that is even remotely similar to all your optimism :lol:

Definitely superb out there today -

Wow, sat afternoon and yesterday were absolutely beautiful, not up there? I posted pics from the beach yesterday it was mind numbing beautiful

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Wow, sat afternoon and yesterday were absolutely beautiful, not up there? I posted pics from the beach yesterday it was mind numbing beautiful

It started to get nice Saturday but we ended up with downpours and thunder... Then yesterday was nice, but we had a case of the milk skies and that sort of took the edge off; today surpasses both by a long shot.

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Yeah, but given that Kevin is predicting that to be the case right through 4th of July, we can almost be certain that some ugly days will be coming back. :lol:

Just give me this weekend...lol. I don't my some storms late day, but the 65 and overcast can wait.

Bob should have started the thread. He had the mojo during the winter.

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What? The stations use it, Will said it is ok...

Of course, Pete does look like a weenie for putting it in his sig...74F/56 just about perfect

For official data, its "snow, ice, or hail" accumulation. However, putting a trace there does not mean you got snow. They still separate the latest snowfall dates and such.

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Between Ray's hair gel on your seat, Scooter's gas, and me ranking on you the entire way..it could get ugly

If anything, I think you might have a bad car ride....you'll have to deal with a lot of laughter about your last 6 weeks of forecasting....probably without a doubt the worst 6 weeks you have ever had on these boards.

You'll feel at home though once we reach BWI. It will probably be very hot and muggy there.

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If anything, I think you might have a bad car ride....you'll have to deal with a lot of laughter about your last 6 weeks of forecasting....probably without a doubt the worst 6 weeks you have ever had on these boards.

You'll feel at home though once we reach BWI. It will probably be very hot and muggy there.

Almost as bad a stretch as you had in 07-08 winter

LOL...are we taking the blue or silver Explorer?

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