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The Hudson Valley Thread


IrishRob17

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This is starting to feel like the winter of 95 in someways. This week sure has a lot of interesting days coming up. Just as long as Dutchess County does better plowing than they did that year-it was a nightmare driving a school bus around on ice-snow packed roads.

Anyone think we may stay on the colder side once again being in the valley where we see more snow than ice?

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Damned ice dams :thumbsdown: I think I broke my nose this afternoon. I was on the ladder whacking away at the ice at the edge of the roof and a chunk, had to be 20+ pounds, broke loose. It hit me in the face because I was watching what I was doing, as any sane person would when whacking their house with a 3 pound mallet. F'n thing hurts...

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Damned ice dams :thumbsdown: I think I broke my nose this afternoon. I was on the ladder whacking away at the ice at the edge of the roof and a chunk, had to be 20+ pounds, broke loose. It hit me in the face because I was watching what I was doing, as any sane person would when whacking their house with a 3 pound mallet. F'n thing hurts...

Sorry to hear this. Thank god you did not fall off the lader and had more injuries or worse. I made an attempt at mine today but it's solid ice in the gutters and downspouts. This won't be going anywhere soon. Feel better.

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Damned ice dams :thumbsdown: I think I broke my nose this afternoon. I was on the ladder whacking away at the ice at the edge of the roof and a chunk, had to be 20+ pounds, broke loose. It hit me in the face because I was watching what I was doing, as any sane person would when whacking their house with a 3 pound mallet. F'n thing hurts...

Wow that stinks and as HV21 said, sounds like you were lucky to not be more serially hurt. You have to be careful too because you cold wind up doing more damage to the roof trying to remove the ice then if you just left it there.

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This is starting to feel like the winter of 95 in someways. This week sure has a lot of interesting days coming up. Just as long as Dutchess County does better plowing than they did that year-it was a nightmare driving a school bus around on ice-snow packed roads.

I'm not sure if you are referring to the winter of 93-94 or 95-96 because both winters were bads ones around here and 94-95 was lame in comparision. In Janaury of 94 we had a storm that gave a dumping of about 6" of snow followed by some sleet, freezing rain and plain rain. Then an artic front moved through and any snow/slush that wasn't cleared froze solid in place as temps went below zero that night and it stayed bitter cold for the rest of the week. NYSDOT had a policy in place at the time where they didn't plow or salt as much during the overnight hours to save money. This came back to bite them big time as did the techonolgies back then in snow removal. Everything was essentially closed for the rest of the week because it was too cold for plain road salt to work. Most roads had these mounds of ice frozen to them that could not be melted or plowed off. The Thruway was one of the only roads that was open and passable and one reason for that was that they were one of the only organizations at the time that was chemically treating the road salt so that it was more effective, especially at temps below 20 when plain road salt starts to lose it's effect. After this debacle any other agencies who were on the fence about chemically treating road salt quickly had their minds made up. Thats why nowadays you may notice liquid tanks on the side of salt spreaders or you may see road salt that has color to it, I've seen green road salt used by the Thruway Authority before for example. So the technology in snow and ice removal has come a long way since then so I doubt we'll see anything as bad as that winter on the roads except for during or right after a big storm.

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12z NAM came in wetter than the previous 00z run for KSWF. The 00z had 0.87 the 12z has 1.42. Could have some serious ice issues if the NAM is right.

OKX disc.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

937 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM TO

IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL NOW

AGREE THAT THE DAMMING HIGH WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER

FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS DAMMING HIGH WILL SERVE TO HELP

KEEP COLD AIR TRAPPED IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM

INTERIOR SW CT...WEST TO ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC

COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH

THE EVENT.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AROUND

12Z TUESDAY AND NEAR CAPE COD BY 6Z WEDNESDAY...PASSING IN BETWEEN

LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND DEEPENING AROUND 10

HPA AS IT DOES SO.

THE DAMMING HIGH WILL SERVE AS AN OVER RUNNING SURFACE FOR

MOISTURE RIDING N ON A S-SE 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE

SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT IS SNOW WILL DEVELOP

ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER

MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND HOW FAST TEMPERATURES

RISE ABOVE FREEZING...THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST...AND

DEEP THE LOW LEVELS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE NAM OFFERS THE LEAST

AMOUNT OFF...AND THE SHALLOWEST WARMING...THE GFS IS THE

WARMEST...AND HAS THE DEEPEST WARM LAYER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS

SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL

DETERMINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW

MIXES/CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN - AND TO ALL RAIN ACROSS

COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING NYC. FOR NOW OPTED FOR A BLEND OF NAM/GFS

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FEATURES.

WHAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY CERTAIN...IS THAT THERE WILL BE AN

ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE THE MIXING BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH

AMOUNTS FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACROSS LONG ISLAND. 1-2 INCHES

ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL CT...AND 2-4 INCHES ACROSS

INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...AND

CT...WHERE JUST SNOW WILL CONTINUE LONGER...INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN FALLS AFTER

THIS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR ALL BUT MOST LIKELY INTERIOR

SW CT...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY DURING THE

DAY ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW GOING WITH A GLAZE TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN

INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL AND SE CT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF ICE...AND

MAYBE MORE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS...AND IF

TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING...ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE

LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SW CT...AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY. IN THESE

AREAS...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...AND THOSE

THAT DO...LIKELY WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM 1 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...DEPENDING ON CONFIDENCE IN

AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE IN A GIVEN ZONE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND ADDED A DEGREE

(TO FAVOR WARMER GUIDANCE) FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE IN

THE EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...USED NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AS THEY HAVE

HISTORICALLY FARED VERY WELL IN THESE IN-SITU DAMMING SITUATIONS.

FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER

TEMPERATURES.

&&

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Damned ice dams :thumbsdown: I think I broke my nose this afternoon. I was on the ladder whacking away at the ice at the edge of the roof and a chunk, had to be 20+ pounds, broke loose. It hit me in the face because I was watching what I was doing, as any sane person would when whacking their house with a 3 pound mallet. F'n thing hurts...

Take care of yourself. Last nights low was 15F. Major bust on the highside

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4pm obs.

HUDSON VALLEY

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

NEWBURGH MOCLDY 19 3 49 E8 30.31S WCI 9

MONTGOMERY MOCLDY 20 2 45 N3 30.29F

POUGHKEEPSIE CLEAR 22 -7 27 CALM 30.33R

ALBANY MOCLDY 13 -6 42 CALM 30.35R

This will allow for some evap.cooling later on.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM

TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...

SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY

* HAZARDS...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET INTO TUESDAY

MORNING...THEN A QUARTER TO UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF ICE ON TOP

OF THE SNOW AND SLEET FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL

BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS THE

FREEZING MARK TUESDAY. ANY AREAS THAT GO ABOVE FREEZING

TUESDAY...WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT...THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN

BY AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A PERIOD

OF TIME IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO FREEZING RAIN

TUESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE TUESDAY

NIGHT.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 423 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ059>061-064>066-180530- /O.UPG.KALY.WS.A.0003.110118T1000Z-110119T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0003.110118T0500Z-110119T1200Z/ NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE- EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER- WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS

- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD... TERRYVILLE...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX...HOUSATONIC... CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS... HUDSON...CHATHAM...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON... ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS... AMENIA...MILLERTON

423 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS: THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES OF MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARDS: SNOW MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY ENDING AS FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS: POSSIBLY 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET ALONG WITH ONE QUARTER TO NEAR A HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRETION.

* TIMING: FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WHERE WET SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN MIGHT BRING DOWN SOME TREES...BRANCHES AND POWER LINES. * TEMPERATURES: STARTING OUT BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES...RISING TO AROUND FREEZING MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.

* WINDS: GENERALLY WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 423 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 MAZ001-NYZ041-043-048>054-058-063-083-084-180530- /O.UPG.KALY.WS.A.0003.110118T1000Z-110119T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0003.110118T0500Z-110119T1200Z/ NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON- WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA- WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER- EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-WESTERN ULSTER-SOUTHEAST WARREN- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS... SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...DELANSON...ESPERANCE... DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA... MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY... HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...SUNDOWN... ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH... PHOENICIA...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS... FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH

423 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS: THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...NORTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES OF MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARDS: MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET...MIXING AT TIMES WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...POSSIBLY ENDING AS FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS: POSSIBLY 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET ALONG WITH AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION.

* TIMING: FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WHERE WET SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN MIGHT BRING DOWN SOME TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES: STARTING OUT BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES...RISING TO AROUND FREEZING MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.

* WINDS: GENERALLY WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

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0Z NAM sounding, the model initilized with 2M temps at 14F, 5 degrees lower than the KSWF temp of 19F. Most of the county is at 19F and has been for awhile.. Not sure if this means anything overall.

Station ID: KSWF Lat: 41.50 Long: -74.09

NAM Model Run: 0Z JAN 18, 2011

Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr

Sfc Prs(mb): 1008.5 1006.6 999.2 991.8 986.3 984.7 986.6 988.2 993.1 997.6 1000.9 1000.5

Mean SLP (mb): 1028.1 1026.2 1018.7 1010.6 1004.9 1003.3 1005.4 1006.8 1012.0 1016.9 1020.5 1019.8

2m agl Tmp (F): 14.4 15.0 24.4 32.4 34.0 31.6 29.2 33.4 26.6 20.4 15.9 23.7

2m agl Dewpt(F): 5.5 9.6 23.2 31.5 33.7 30.6 27.9 29.9 22.8 15.7 10.6 17.5

2m agl RH (%): 67 79 95 97 99 96 95 87 85 81 79 77

10m agl Dir: 109 98 80 81 9 311 290 303 309 303 305 299

10m agl Spd(kt): 4 6 10 10 8 9 7 8 11 11 8 7

6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.51 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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If the NAM qpf verifies ...I hope you guys have generators and chain saws ready in the Mid Hudson Valley. ;) I think we are mainly dealing with a sleet threat here after the snow....

0Z NAM sounding, the model initilized with 2M temps at 14F, 5 degrees lower than the KSWF temp of 19F. Most of the county is at 19F and has been for awhile.. Not sure if this means anything overall.

Station ID: KSWF Lat: 41.50 Long: -74.09

NAM Model Run: 0Z JAN 18, 2011

Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr

Sfc Prs(mb): 1008.5 1006.6 999.2 991.8 986.3 984.7 986.6 988.2 993.1 997.6 1000.9 1000.5

Mean SLP (mb): 1028.1 1026.2 1018.7 1010.6 1004.9 1003.3 1005.4 1006.8 1012.0 1016.9 1020.5 1019.8

2m agl Tmp (F): 14.4 15.0 24.4 32.4 34.0 31.6 29.2 33.4 26.6 20.4 15.9 23.7

2m agl Dewpt(F): 5.5 9.6 23.2 31.5 33.7 30.6 27.9 29.9 22.8 15.7 10.6 17.5

2m agl RH (%): 67 79 95 97 99 96 95 87 85 81 79 77

10m agl Dir: 109 98 80 81 9 311 290 303 309 303 305 299

10m agl Spd(kt): 4 6 10 10 8 9 7 8 11 11 8 7

6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.51 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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Moderate to heavy snow here and 16F. at 8:00 AM. About 2" on the ground. I just woke up so not sure when it started.

My temp is slowly rising here. Started at 16 and heavy snow for a few hours then as the temp approached 20 it changed to sleet. It's been sleeting now for almost two hours and, well, yuck :axe: Temp now is 21 at the house and 24 down on Rt 6 with heavy sleet. What are the chances it gets above freezing at the surface?

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Hangin' tough at 21* :weight_lift: Trees are starting to get glazed now so I'm assuming it's mixed sleet and freezing rain. My wifes boss told her that if she doesn't make it in by 10 yesterday was her last day at that job :gun_bandana: but that he would be working from home. I think I may have to head to his house and "explain" to him how rotten his attitude is :angry:

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Hangin' tough at 21* :weight_lift: Trees are starting to get glazed now so I'm assuming it's mixed sleet and freezing rain. My wifes boss told her that if she doesn't make it in by 10 yesterday was her last day at that job :gun_bandana: but that he would be working from home. I think I may have to head to his house and "explain" to him how rotten his attitude is :angry:

wow, that's what I like to call a "slim shady" move... that's pretty low! :gun_bandana:

Hope it works out for your wife.

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Hangin' tough at 21* :weight_lift: Trees are starting to get glazed now so I'm assuming it's mixed sleet and freezing rain. My wifes boss told her that if she doesn't make it in by 10 yesterday was her last day at that job :gun_bandana: but that he would be working from home. I think I may have to head to his house and "explain" to him how rotten his attitude is :angry:

That's just terrible. He's the worst kind of boss one could have--one who is both unreasonable and also expects others to do what he won't do.

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At this point we have very light frozen precip..snow grains and sleet probably. 18F. It really hasn't been doing much of anything since about 9:00 AM. This is starting to seem like an underwhelming event. I'm sure we haven't had more than .2" qpf so this could be a major model bust because at 0Z the NAM was forecasting around .8" and the GFS .6" here.

Agree 100%

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