IrishRob17 Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Robby likey. That discussion reminds me that I should post a couple of the blowing snow and drifting photos I took the day after the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 IMO this is another one heading for the snow bulls eye of the Hudson Valley and Catskills. I think when all is said and done LI has P-type issues. Maybe NYC stays all snow.... Got down to 10 last night. Now the eyes turn to the Tues-Wed event. Looks to be trending closer to the coast. Nice write-up by OKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 405 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING... LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS A SOUTHERN/EASTERN OUTLIER...AND THE 9Z SREF A NORTHERN/WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE STORM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECWMF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE STORM OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ECMWF JUST TO THE NW OF THE BENCHMARK AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED FOR A ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. OTHER THAN THE SREF SOLUTION...THERE IS A CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH THIS IDEA BEING FOLLOWED. THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AZ...IS WELL RESOLVED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS...AND IS HANDLED FAIRLY SIMILARLY BY ALL MODELS. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE EQUATION ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT/SUNDAY IS STILL OVER THE NE PACIFIC...SO HOPEFULLY EITHER THE 00Z OR 12Z SUNDAY BALLOON LAUNCHES WILL CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS A FAST/SHEARED OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SHARPLY ENOUGH (THIS IS A KNOWN GFS BIAS - NOT SHARPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ENOUGH). THE RESULT IS A MORE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOLUTION IN THE GFS. THE OTHER MODELS HANDLE THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BETTER...SO HAVE THE SETUP FOR A LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING MORE THAN THE GFS. BASED ON THE ABOVE HAVE CHANCE POPS SW 1/2...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE 1/2 OF AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES...WHERE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING GIVES PRUDENCE TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TAPER POPS OFF FROM NW TO SE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY BEING DRY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS AMOUNTS...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WOULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS LATTER IDEA IS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW - EMPHASIZING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IDEA IS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR NOW. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT GIVEN SOLID CONSISTENCY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE ECMWF OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM...POSSIBLY A MAJOR ONE...IS INCREASING IN THE LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 IMO this is another one heading for the snow bulls eye of the Hudson Valley and Catskills. I think when all is said and done LI has P-type issues. Maybe NYC stays all snow.... Agree, It's not etched in stone yet. More of a west shift will bring those p-type issues to LI but more love for us to the north and west of NYC. Also, OKX getting a little stronger with their wording. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO LIKELY TRACK NEAR THE 40 NORTH/70 WEST BENCHMARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THEN IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM...AND EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM LIKELY WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE EVENT EAST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...AND LOWER NORTHWEST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I hope we do get it-and LI gets buried. Sadistic-nope. Just want the guy who owns our company to share in the wealth-he wants us all to come in-even in snow emergencies. As long was we don't lose power over it all-it could be a snow of epic proportions. Seriously, I am liking what I am reading, but we are still a few days out. I'd like to see us again in the bullseye and no dry slots come in. Right now we are down at 25º and still cloudy. Happy Snow Watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I too was informed that unless it's illegal for me to be out on the roads I'm expected to be at work. The owner is out of the country with his son (asst. mgr) and my other assistants wife is expecting ~20th. My luck she'll pop a bit early So did anybody get a look at 0 and 6z info yet? Looks like the jackpot might be ever so slightly east/northeast of us but we look to do alright with a foot or more by the end of the day Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Check out the 12Z NAM --- We get crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1123 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE STORM FOR LATE TUE INTO WED. LATEST 12Z DATA CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. HWO INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI AS THE TRACK HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WWD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE ONLY A PERIOD OF MIXING OR CHANGEOVER...AS OPPOSED TO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM STILL UNRESOLVED AS WELL. ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS. SUBTROPICAL TAP ALREADY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR...SO MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOW ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. STORM EXITS LATE WED WITH FAIR WEATHER THRU FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FCST.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 We could use Radders with some Euro totals for our back yards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We could use Radders with some Euro totals for our back yards .75 - 1 from west to east... 1 inch line is probably just west of the hudson river... So we all get hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 .75 - 1 from west to east... 1 inch line is probably just west of the hudson river... So we all get hit pretty good. And there you are, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 .75 - 1 from west to east... 1 inch line is probably just west of the hudson river... So we all get hit pretty good. How are temps in the upper levels? Surface temps? Ratios? You da man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How are temps in the upper levels? Surface temps? Ratios? You da man! 850s look to be -8C for the area, don't have great graphics so they could be a cooler than that, but we are easily in that contour. Surface temps are you would expect, are in the mid 20s, maybe lower 20s since this is mainly and overnight hit... I would say we get decent ratios up here given those stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 850s look to be -8C for the area, don't have great graphics so they could be a cooler than that, but we are easily in that contour. Surface temps are you would expect, are in the mid 20s, maybe lower 20s since this is mainly and overnight hit... I would say we get decent ratios up here given those stats. Very nice... Thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Very nice... Thanks.. Agree, hopefully it will be like the powder we got on Friday, easy to clean up and beautiful to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Agree, hopefully it will be like the powder we got on Friday, easy to clean up and beautiful to look at. I agree 100%.. I can do without the wind. Even without the NAM most models print out a good 8-12" snowfall for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 850s look to be -8C for the area, don't have great graphics so they could be a cooler than that, but we are easily in that contour. Surface temps are you would expect, are in the mid 20s, maybe lower 20s since this is mainly and overnight hit... I would say we get decent ratios up here given those stats. Thanks for the breakdown. here is the 12z NAM for KSWF showing 1.19 of QPF thru 84 hrs. 850s just a touch warmer. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kswf.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Great stuff! Thanks all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I agree 100%.. I can do without the wind. Even without the NAM most models print out a good 8-12" snowfall for the area. You're going to have very nice ratios up there. Even down here in Southern Westchester at 350' elevation, I'm thinking at least 12:1 ratios for this storm since 850s are like -6C, and I expect the storm to occur overnight which should hold temperatures in the mid 20s. This is another cold storm like 12/26, albeit with less wind, which should promote better dendrite formation. I'm liking the chances for 8-12" for NYC metro including the extreme NW areas...you might see a little less QPF than LI, but you'll be vastly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You're going to have very nice ratios up there. Even down here in Southern Westchester at 350' elevation, I'm thinking at least 12:1 ratios for this storm since 850s are like -6C, and I expect the storm to occur overnight which should hold temperatures in the mid 20s. This is another cold storm like 12/26, albeit with less wind, which should promote better dendrite formation. I'm liking the chances for 8-12" for NYC metro including the extreme NW areas...you might see a little less QPF than LI, but you'll be vastly colder. Completely agree with your thoughts... If things stay as they are, I would say a good 8-12" for the area. BTW, did you see the 15Z SRFs? Very bullish.. Some of the members clobber the mid hudson valley, especially north of here up towards Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 427 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES INTO MON...SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED WITH ONLY FEW-SCT STRATOCU ATOP THE INVERSION...AND MIXING BELOW RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY OF GUSTY NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM ONTARIO MON NIGHT. UNDERCUT COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS I NORMALLY WOULD FOR SNOW COVERED AREAS...SINCE A 15-20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN LATE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER MAJOR SNOWSTORM...THE SECOND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN JUST A LITTLE OVER TWO WEEKS AND THE THIRD FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT! SIDED WITH A 12Z NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE NASCENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SAT WV IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED BAROCLINIC LEAF AND COMMA HEAD...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NEAR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF MEXICO...AND ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS. PROLIFIC LIGHTNING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE INDICATIVE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAN MOST MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH MAY FORCE AN EVENTUAL FARTHER W LOW TRACK...AND THE NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. EVEN SO...STRONG ISALLOBARIC N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS AS THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW MOVES FROM NE OF HATTERAS TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONTAUK AND 40N/70W TUE NIGHT BY 12Z WED SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH ONLY THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND STILL IN QUESTION. WEAKER/LESS WET GFS SFC SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR LESS OF AN ISALLOBARIC LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT AND THEREFORE MORE ONSHORE AND BLYR WARMING...WITH MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT ALL THE WAY BACK TO COASTAL CT AND ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER LONG ISLAND. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN REJECTED ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS WAS ALSO TOO WARM IN COASTAL SECTIONS FOR THE LATE DECEMBER BLIZZARD. WINDS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN NYC AND COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THEY WILL COINCIDE WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO PRODUCE TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WITH THE LATE DECEMBER STORM. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS RUNNING HIGH...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH GREATER TOTALS WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP...MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. HWO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES COULD BE RAISED OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM PASSES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WED...TROUGHING LAGGING BEHIND COULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST INTO WED AFTERNOON...WHILE A BLUSTERY NW WIND CONTINUES.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Albany THE NEXT SYSTEM...LOOKS TO BE A PHASING OF THE CURRENT GULF COAST SYSTEM...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CURRENTLY AROUND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. GULF COAST SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC NOW...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DEAMPLIFICATION AND WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOOTPRINT WILL STILL EXIST...LIKE A FUSE THAT JUST NEEDS TO BE RE-LIT. THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. O.K. THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN TOO POETIC...BUT SOME HINTS AT CONVECTIVE CHARACTER TO SYSTEM WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING...THAT COULD STEER THE SYSTEM ALONG THE MORE NORTHWESTERN PREDICTED TRACKS IN GUIDANCE. WIND ANOMALIES AT 850 HPA SUGGEST BETTER THAN AVERAGE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECION OFF ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSED UPPER LOW DOES LOOK PROGRESSIVE...NOT AN UPPER CUT OFF...EVIDENT IN 250 HPA WIND ANOMALIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IMPRESSIVE...AND BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD CUT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC -12C TO -18C GROWTH ZONE IN A RELATIVELY DECENT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MESOSCALE BANDING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AS IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON WHERE ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OF >2"+ PER HOUR COULD SET UP. BIGGEST SNOWS COULD BE SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...OR COULD SHIFT A BIT WEST TOWARD THE BERKSHIRES...EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. SO...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A SNOWSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...BUT FOR NOW...UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER...THE BIGGEST IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND OR EAST OF THE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER AND SOUTH OF VT...PERHAPS POU THROUGH LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...MAYBE TO PSF...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN ANY DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT GETS NEARER. AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE HUDSON VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN CATSKILLS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOWS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE SYSTEM. AGAIN...A SLIGHT NORTHWEST SHIFT TO THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...AND HEAVIER SNOWS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT TO SOUTHERN VT...STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREF came in NW, 0ZNAM continues, keeps the low close to the coast and bombs out JIT to slam the HV on a dream run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00z NAM came in with 1.37 of QPF for KSWF :snowman: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KSWF.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Check out the NAM Bufkit for KPOU 31 inches of snow.. LOL http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kpou.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NY WeatherMom Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Check out the NAM Bufkit for KPOU 31 inches of snow.. LOL http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kpou.dat Another Feb storm-bring it on-as long as we don't lose power again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0Z NAM Even cut in half it still a great storm but it will not play out as modeled ATM but nice trends none the less KSWF KPOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS is wide right with about .50 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS is wide right with about .50 for the area. This hobby gives me whiplash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 0Z NAM Even cut in half it still a great storm but it will not play out as modeled ATM but nice trends none the less My thoughts exactly. Which model will win the battle this time around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Winter Storm Watches.....snow from the snow pack drifting across roads in spots.....crews out pushing snow banks and piles back to make room for the next snowfall.....there are worse ways to start off the work week for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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