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Jonesing for a Chase

HurricaneJosh

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
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Anyhoo, I'm close to pulling the trigger. In fact, I've made most of the arrangements at this point. I literally just need to fire the gun.

I'll be leaving L.A. tomorrow morning-- that's the plan.

Thought I would be going down to tend to the boat but I have some compadres who will take care of it for me & alas work calls. Hope you end up in the Panhandle with a safe & great chase! Will be hanging on your posts and if you have any Q's let me know.

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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Thought I would be going down to tend to the boat but I have some compadres who will take care of it for me & alas work calls. Hope you end up in the Panhandle with a safe & great chase! Will be hanging on your posts and if you have any Q's let me know.

Thank you so much! I might take you up on your offer of info, etc., since you really know this region-- so expect a PM from me at some point. :)

:cough:

Inner core? :weight_lift:

Finally! I'm starting to get a little excited. :sun:

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Connor McCrorey

Connor McCrorey

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Honestly, I really don't think Beaufort or my location (to the E, in Marshallberg-- also in that map's orange zone) had winds anywhere near 100 mph. I'd say we had winds around 50 kt with gusts to minimal hurricane force-- that would be my best guess. That storm really lacked punch-- it was unraveling, high-latitude crap. Just wait until you're in a real hurricane-- you'll be like, "Oh, wow! Totally different!" You get in the core of even a strengthening Cat 2, and it has real bite-- a real edge to it. Maybe you'll get a taste of that soon. ;)

Really? That's interesting, I think, because I know with certainty that our winds topped 80 mph (having experienced my fair share of significant straight line wind events in the plains). By 5 or 6 in the morning I would say our winds were probably gusting to about 100 mph, but I didn't measure it so I won't make any claims I can't back up. Certainly higher than 50 kts at our location! How strange.

Also, I said Beaufort as a point of reference, but we were out on one of those barrier islands when we experienced the strongest of it, although I can't remember which one right now. I wonder if that could have had anything to do with the slightly higher winds at out location?

Regardless, Isaac should be a lot more fun :tomato:

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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Really? That's interesting, I think, because I know with certainty that our winds topped 80 mph (having experienced my fair share of significant straight line wind events in the plains). By 5 or 6 in the morning I would say our winds were probably gusting to about 100 mph, but I didn't measure it so I won't make any claims I can't back up. Certainly higher than 50 kts at our location! How strange.

Also, I said Beaufort as a point of reference, but we were out on one of those barrier islands when we experienced the strongest of it, although I can't remember which one right now. I wonder if that could have had anything to do with the slightly higher winds at out location?

Regardless, Isaac should be a lot more fun :tomato:

Honestly, I think most people-- even chasers-- grossly overestimate the winds they experience. I think we all do it, although over the years, I've tried to really get more disciplined about it-- and so my estimates always sound lower than everyone else's. But I've seen videos where the winds in the video are maybe half or a third of the speed that the narrator is saying.

None of the official surface obs in the Beaufort area substantiate winds that high, nor did the damage, which was light. KMRH had 46 kt gusting to 61, which seems about right to me. Cape Lookout-- which further SE and way more exposed than Beaufort-- had 58 kt gusting to 68.

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sugaree

sugaree

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Really? That's interesting, I think, because I know with certainty that our winds topped 80 mph (having experienced my fair share of significant straight line wind events in the plains). By 5 or 6 in the morning I would say our winds were probably gusting to about 100 mph, but I didn't measure it so I won't make any claims I can't back up. Certainly higher than 50 kts at our location! How strange.

Also, I said Beaufort as a point of reference, but we were out on one of those barrier islands when we experienced the strongest of it, although I can't remember which one right now. I wonder if that could have had anything to do with the slightly higher winds at out location?

Regardless, Isaac should be a lot more fun :tomato:

Could it have been Atlantic Beach/ Indian Beach/ Emerald Isle? that is the closest barrier island I believe.

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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Given the 00Z tracks, you may have to wait a little longer and see if the models narrow things down between Tampa and Corpus Christi.

I needed to go on a 6-mile run to calm myself down after seeing the 00Z.

It's all a bit nutty-- and disappointing to see a larger spread with time. But it doesn't really matter, I guess-- because my game-plan for the next 24 hr is the same, regardless. I need to obviously just get down there to the Gulf Coast-- and take it from there.

Time to start a chase thread! :)

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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OK, so what's next?

I'm beyond embarrassed to be inquiring so soon after Isaac-- I've only been back in California for a few days. But I'm still feeling that itch. I thought Isaac scratched it: it was a hard chase, and I remember thinking-- at a particularly frustrating moment-- that I was done for the season.

But of course I'm not. :sun:

I guess this is what addiction is. Oh, well.

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mob1

mob1

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OK, so what's next?

I'm beyond embarrassed to be inquiring so soon after Isaac-- I've only been back in California for a few days. But I'm still feeling that itch. I thought Isaac scratched it: it was a hard chase, and I remember thinking, at a particularly frustrating moment, that I was done for the reason.

But of course I'm not. :sun:

I guess this is what addiction is. Oh, well.

You can always chase TD 13, you probably don't need more than moderate swimming skills :) BTW; congrats on another awesome chase, of course we all missed the 3 day "is Josh alive" drama that follows a chase in a remote location but as always it was extremely interesting to follow.
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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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You can always chase TD 13, you probably don't need more than moderate swimming skills :) BTW; congrats on another awesome chase, of course we all missed the 3 day "is Josh alive" drama that follows a chase in a remote location but as always it was extremely interesting to follow.

:lol:

Yeah, the chase didn't follow the usual dramatic arc. :D The plus side: it was so awesome to have a data connection and see the radar in real time as the eye approached and camped out over me! I loved that.

Glad you liked the chase-- thank you so much. :)

.

You are such a troublemaker, you know that? :P

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

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Hello, Josh! Just wanted to check in and formally congratulate you on an amazing chase! Following this one was a very difficult time for me -- lots of anxiety and nerves. It kind of forced me to face some terrifying demons. You made it all a bit easier for me, knowing exactly (or close enough) what was going on in the heart of the beast. I thank you so much for that.

I know you're hoping for another chase -- what do you think the chances are of seeing another this year? Gut feelings?

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Cory

Cory

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I know you're hoping for another chase -- what do you think the chances are of seeing another this year? Gut feelings?

He's been having dreams about Nadine, where, after a passionate but short relationship, they embrace each other while singing a Lita Ford-Ozzy Osbourne parody duet called "If I Close My Eye Forever".

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

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bermuda? looks like a direct hit.

I dunno... I don't know him that well, but I feel like Josh is the kind of person that would not want to be tied down to the locational challenges being on an island would bring. He wouldn't be able to chase the core wherever it went.

But then again... when you have an itch...

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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Hello, Josh! Just wanted to check in and formally congratulate you on an amazing chase! Following this one was a very difficult time for me -- lots of anxiety and nerves. It kind of forced me to face some terrifying demons. You made it all a bit easier for me, knowing exactly (or close enough) what was going on in the heart of the beast. I thank you so much for that.

I know you're hoping for another chase -- what do you think the chances are of seeing another this year? Gut feelings?

Oh, thank you-- I so appreciate this. :)

My gut feeling is that the grand finale of the year is going to be in Mexico, on the Pacific side, in October. The climatological indicators are giving me this vibe.

Chasing in Newfoundland would be a totally different experience.

It sure would be-- but probably a lot like a nor'easter, I would think.

I've always wanted to visit St. John's, however. It looks, pretty. :wub:

bermuda? looks like a direct hit.

It looked so certain 72 hr ago, didn't it? And that's exactly why I'm not fond of Bermuda as a chase location: 9 times out of 10, you'll get burned.

I dunno... I don't know him that well, but I feel like Josh is the kind of person that would not want to be tied down to the locational challenges being on an island would bring. He wouldn't be able to chase the core wherever it went.

Bingo.

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aslkahuna

aslkahuna

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I dunno... I don't know him that well, but I feel like Josh is the kind of person that would not want to be tied down to the locational challenges being on an island would bring. He wouldn't be able to chase the core wherever it went.

But then again... when you have an itch...

Yes, being on an island would tie one down but on the other hand if you DO catch the core you're in for the tropical cyclone ride of your life since you get the absolute full flavor of the storm. Wonder what Josh would think about going through what Guam did with Pamela in 1976-a 125kt Cat 4. Si hours of sustained 100+kt winds, 18 hours of sustained typhoon force winds and 24 hours of sustained 50kt winds.

Steve

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