CooL Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Way ahead of you lol. The Euro and Phils latest radar anlysis doesnt excite me. The NHC track and the bathwater of the western carribean does though. Like all tropical systems, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I see Phil lurking. I'm expecting him to rain on the parade and talking about degeneration to an open wave at any moment. Well the radar is telling the story. Yes its that patch of showers to the west of Barbados. My argument is that if Ernesto could organize some in the next 12-24 hours it would have a fighting chance in the Caribbean. This is not the start it needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 The Euro and Phils latest radar anlysis doesnt excite me. The NHC track and the bathwater of the western carribean does though. Like all tropical systems, time will tell. Bingo. I'm feeling tugs from two different directions with this one. Well the radar is telling the story. Yes its that patch of showers to the west of Barbados. My argument is that if Ernesto could organize some in the next 12-24 hours it would have a fighting chance in the Caribbean. This is not the start it needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 The GFDL team was told to make the EPac performance the same as the Atlantic standards. The above is the result. They should have been clearer. Let's not bury this gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Looking at the morning satellite imagery of Ernesto and wondering if it's going to pull through, I feel like I'm in the waiting room of a very sick relative in the ICU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I hope Adam doesn't get mad if I mention the Canadian solution of a Beaumont/Lake Charles 970s mb hit, would keep Galveston on the weak side, water my lawn, and provide Scott with a reasonably short drive after picking up Josh at IAH for a chase. I know Canadian ensembles and NAM solutions are strictly forbidden. But this is a chase thread, and Josh isn't already on his way to the airport. You can take FM 1960 from IAH way far East, almost halfway to Beaumont, and avoid I-10 for a good ways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Looking at the morning satellite imagery of Ernesto and wondering if it's going to pull through, I feel like I'm in the waiting room of a very sick relative in the ICU. I wonder what odds the pro-mets would give Ernesto to regenerate further West, where SHIPs is all excited, if it does open into a wave. Claudette 2003 came awfully close to opening into a wave in the Caribbean (may have, actually) and still rained on my lawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 GFDL bashing aside they seemed to be really focused on it with the HWRF being mentioned less compared to the past. Could be a mute point though with the Euro winning out on a weaker system much further S. 6z still has it across Cuba. Very similar to Gustav - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Phil thinks I've lost my mind and all credibility in even suggesting after the upgrade that the HWRF is not doing all that bad this season, but I digress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 If the HWRF isn't to be trusted, I wish they'd unfix the tweaks so people could regularly post invests being 120 knot storms in 4 days. I miss that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 If the HWRF isn't to be trusted, I wish they'd unfix the tweaks so people could regularly post invests being 120 knot storms in 4 days. I miss that. Right into NYC/SNE, preferably. Those make moderating a blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Right into NYC/SNE, preferably. Those make moderating a blast. You guys actually moderate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 If they continue putting weight on the GFDL the track shouldn't change much. Otherwise there could be an adjustment to the S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 1938. The similarities are striking! Really though, summertime system threatening a very warm gulf. Plenty of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 lol The weenie sst map du jour! H7 potential in the CGOM and 880. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Small adjustment to the S. Right at Cozumel/Cancun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THE TIME ERNESTO REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER HURRICANE. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL BE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...TRACK MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AND SOME MODELS KEEP ERNESTO ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHILE ANOTHER GROUP TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...DEPENDING UPON HOW THE MODELS DEPICT THE STRENGTH OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. 72H 06/1200Z 17.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 18.5N 83.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 looks like new convection is firing around the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 12z GFS similar to the 0z. Around Belize and the extreme SG. If it makes it that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Phil thinks I've lost my mind and all credibility in even suggesting after the upgrade that the HWRF is not doing all that bad this season, but I digress... Not crazy... but after its poor performance in previous years I'm still very skeptical until I start to see some concrete results. The solutions its been putting out so far have been pretty reasonable, but it will go down as a poor forecast if Ernesto degenerates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Looks like the Canadian is surrendering to the big boy globals. Maybe it'll blow up heading for Tampico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Looks like the Canadian is surrendering to the big boy globals. Maybe it'll blow up heading for Tampico. CMC and GFDL have had pretty egregious poleward biases in previous years. Not surprising to see that at least the former has turned around to the Yucatan/MX position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 CMC and GFDL have had pretty egregious poleward biases in previous years. Not surprising to see that at least the former has turned around to the Yucatan/MX position. The Canadian isn't a complete bummer. yes, its the Canadian, so it isn't posted in the Ernesto thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Incoming update may show further S if they go with the GFS, King Euro tandem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Incoming update may show further S if they go with the GFS, King Euro tandem. They nudged it W a tad, but the Discussion makes a good point: the Euro and the GFS only keep it so far S because they keep the system so weak. If it's a worthy system, it won't follow that deep-S track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 They nudged it W a tad, but the Discussion makes a good point: the Euro and the GFS only keep it so far S because they keep the system so weak. If it's a worthy system, it won't follow that deep-S track. Disco almost drips with Blake wanting to go with the GFS/Euro idea which might be better for you. Otherwise if the other models are correct in the longer range track there is a higher likelihood it misses the YP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Disco almost drips with Blake wanting to go with the GFS/Euro idea which might be better for you. Otherwise if the other models are correct in the longer range track there is a higher likelihood it misses the YP. Agreed. But I'm hoping they split the difference with a solid, C-Yucatan path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Afternoon update on iCyclone.com: http://icyclone.com/now/2012/aug/03-august-2012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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