SpartyOn Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Most def interested in this potential given the dynamics presented with guidance. Hopeful the cap can be broken at perfect timing. Stebo is spot on with the 46 corridor. Its a prime location for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Anyways, I haven't had a tornado warning in Michigan, or Oklahoma since 9/8/2007. The 00z Monday sounding for KPTK from the 12z NAM was pure model porn, lol. Really? I think I had at least two last year here in southern Oakland county...then again, Mt. Orion more then makes up for it in the winter. Also, why did you have to make me look at this and get myself all excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Hi all. New to this forum, usually follow accuweather. Thought I would post this graphic. Welcome aboard... couple rules: 1. Never mention accu weather...strike one. 2. Never downplay or offer a negative view to a major snowstorm or major severe weather outbreak. Please note the lack of welcome to your original post. Do this and you will fit in fine. Back out...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 If stuff fires on Sunday, I will be out. Gotta go get some cash for chasing for WOODTV8. Tomorrow on the other hand is still iffy for me. I guess im gonna wake up early, and decide then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 the new hotness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 The only problem is the NAM cuts the CAPE there, and that 40% is north of the CAPE...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Really? I think I had at least two last year here in southern Oakland county...then again, Mt. Orion more then makes up for it in the winter. Also, why did you have to make me look at this and get myself all excited? Whoa that's some big 0-3km EHI numbers for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 I have Sunday off, so I'm hoping something decent can pop in the area around the warm front. Maybe chasing if it's worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Whoa that's some big 0-3km EHI numbers for up here. Got scaled down a bit on the 00z run but still very formidable numbers for around here. Hodos also look very good...backed surface winds...warm front in the area to provide a trigger. Have to think the SPC and local NWS offices will start talking this one up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Got scaled down a bit on the 00z run but still very formidable numbers for around here. Hodos also look very good...backed surface winds...warm front in the area to provide a trigger. Have to think the SPC and local NWS offices will start talking this one up tomorrow. I think also will want to watch lake breezes, this time of year they could focus convection not to mention locally back the winds even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 will most likely be chasing tomorrow, worried about the cap a bit but have to chase given its most likely the last chance for awhile around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 I think also will want to watch lake breezes, this time of year they could focus convection not to mention locally back the winds even more. SREF has ramped up SigTor Probs from 5 to 10 to 20 the last three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 will most likely be chasing tomorrow, worried about the cap a bit but have to chase given its most likely the last chance for awhile around here. I'm still on the fence for chasing due to a lot of other crap going on I'm supposed to be at lol, but if it looks good in the morning I'm ditching that crap and chasing. Definitely a conditional threat, but if the CINH gives way it should be very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 SREF has ramped up SigTor Probs from 5 to 10 to 20 the last three runs. Yeah I foresee having my brother keeping me informed if something pops Sunday during the daytime, as I'll be sleeping through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Ah, I see you added your location...I always thought you lived in Ontario due to your screen name lol. Anyways, I haven't had a tornado warning in Michigan, or Oklahoma since 9/8/2007. The 00z Monday sounding for KPTK from the 12z NAM was pure model porn, lol. I live in Region of Waterloo, Ontario but I'm down here for a little while. The last tornado warning I was in was on August 4, 2009 up in Kitchener/Waterloo where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Like seeing 30kts of wind just above the surface. Location is around Imlay City, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 I live in Region of Waterloo, Ontario but I'm down here for a little while. The last tornado warning I was in was on August 4, 2009 up in Kitchener/Waterloo where I live. Ah that makes sense. And duh, I should have known Ontario from the stats in your sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Pure sounding/hodo porn on the new GFS south of Springfield for later tomorrow. Possible hodo porn centerfold material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Possible hodo porn centerfold material. Jesus that's an awesome hodo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Jesus that's an awesome hodo. Yeah it'd sure be a waste if we can't tap into this fantastic deep layer shear. It may be worth the drive and cap bust just to be in the area where hodos are that pretty lol. The new RGEM keeps the instability axis capped off. Shows elevated convection firing further north, but unlike the 12z it keeps the warm sector quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Yeah it'd sure be a waste if we can't tap into this fantastic deep layer shear. It may be worth the drive and cap bust just to be in the area where hodos are that pretty lol. The new RGEM keeps the instability axis capped off. Shows elevated convection firing further north, but unlike the 12z it keeps the warm sector quiet. The new 4km SPC WRF run has storms firing around Springfield tomorrow, but I have no idea how accurate it has been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 The new 4km SPC WRF run has storms firing around Springfield tomorrow, but I have no idea how accurate it has been lately. With such a strong mid-level jet punching through the area I'm hoping that it may be just enough to kick things off in the instability axis. The timing of the mid-level wind maximum looks pretty good, so that's one thing we have going for us. It's looking like the Litchfield Illinois area is the place to be again later tomorrow assuming things pop. That area's been hot this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 0z NAM near STL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 ILstormchaser going to CO in OK now... 824 ACUS01 KWNS 280557 SWODY1 SPC AC 280556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ASTRIDE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM E-CENTRAL CO TO CENTRAL IL.... ..SYNOPSIS SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH PERIOD...AS HEIGHT RISES ELIMINATE ERN CONUS TROUGHING...AND DEVELOPING CYCLONE NOW OFFSHORE ORE INTENSIFIES AND MOVES SEWD TO NRN PORTIONS CA/NV. SMALL/DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND SFC DATA OVER NWRN SD/SERN SASK AREA -- WILL MOVE EWD ALONG CANADIAN BORDER TO EXTREME NRN MN BY 29/00Z...DEVOLVING TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH THEN CONTINUING ENEWD ACROSS NWRN ONT THROUGH 29/12Z. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THIS AND WRN CONUS CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE FROM WRN WY/CENTRAL MT AT 28/18Z TO NEB/SWRN SD/SERN MT BY 29/12Z. AT SFC..CYCLONE NOW OVER SWRN OK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THIS REGION THROUGH MOST OF DAY...BEFORE SHIFTING NWD TO WRN KS OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS MERGING WITH ERN FRINGES OF DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO. AFTERNOON FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN SWRN OK AND SERN CO ALSO WILL ACT AS EFFECTIVE DRYLINE...WITH VERY HOT/LOW-RH AIR TO ITS S ACROSS NW TX AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. LATE-AFTERNOON DRYLINE WILL ALSO EXTEND FROM SWRN OK/NW TX SSWWD TO NRN COAHUILA. SFC WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS NRN OK AND KS...REACHING NEAR I-70 IN KS/MO BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SFC TROUGH AND WEAK/COLLOCATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM NRN PLAINS LOW...MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN MN/ERN SD AROUND 29/00Z. ..CENTRAL LOW PLAINS...LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEY REGIONS SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING...IN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...STRONG HEATING...AND INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING LOCATED INVOF 700 MB WILL IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF DAY. HOWEVER...ONCE TSTMS FORM...ORGANIZATION WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY GIVEN 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. SUPERCELLS AND BOWS EACH ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING HAIL/WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES...GIVEN BACKED WINDS INVOF FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO 55-65 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM AGL SRH 200-400 J/KG. CAPPING WILL INCREASE WITH WWD EXTENT RENDERING INITIATION AND OVERAGE MORE UNCERTAIN FROM ERN INTO CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER..ACTIVITY ACROSS MO/IL MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO EVENING WITH RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF SVR POTENTIAL. THERE MAY BE RELATIVE MIN OR SPATIAL GAP IN SVR THREAT BETWEEN THIS REGIME AND NEXT...HOWEVER IT IS TOO SMALL TO RESOLVE ON NATIONAL-OUTLOOK SCALE ATTM. ..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ERN CO DURING AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY IN ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS...AND CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL GIVEN FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE PROCESSES. SRN FRINGES OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY AFFECT THIS REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CINH SHOULD BE WEAKENED IN SUPPORT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY COMBINATION OF 1. STG SFC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS PALMER RIDGE AREA 2. UPSLOPE AND AT LEAST WEAKLY CONVERGENCE FLOW IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND 3. NARROW/WNW-ESE ALIGNED CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. EXPECT MOIST ADVECTION FROM AREAS OF CENTRAL/SRN KS WHERE RETURN-FLOW TRAJECTORIES ARE CURVING WNWWD...AND SFC-850 MB DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE AND PERSIST INTO EVENING ACROSS WRN KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 will most likely be chasing tomorrow, worried about the cap a bit but have to chase given its most likely the last chance for awhile around here. Good luck. Hopefully you get a discrete supercell or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Good luck. Hopefully you get a discrete supercell or two. ya were still deciding and won't know till the morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Monday looks good across northern MN near the warm front. Pretty impressive looking hodos for northern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Definitely a huge gamble today whether the cap will break in Eastern Missouri/Western Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titleist_03 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 13z RUC FTW! Breaks the cap just east of STL late afternoon in an area of around 3000 cape. The best helicity is slightly further north though. This would be very near my backyard which is currently locked in thick cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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