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CUmet

Historic Tornado Outbreak April 27, 2011

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Operational and ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF have consistently indicated a huge longwave trough moving eastward over the Central U.S. during this time frame.  Embedded within this large-scale trough will likely be at least a couple vort maxes, one of which looks likely to eject out into the Plains on April 25, and another right on its heels on April 26-27.  Specifics are lacking at the moment since we're still 6+ days away, but the large-scale pattern is highly suggestive of a major severe weather/tornado outbreak occurring on at least one of these days, if not multiple days.

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Operational and ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF have consistently indicated a huge longwave trough moving eastward over the Central U.S. during this time frame. Embedded within this large-scale trough will likely be at least a couple vort maxes, one of which looks likely to eject out into the Plains on April 25, and another right on its heels on April 26-27. Specifics are lacking at the moment since we're still 6+ days away, but the large-scale pattern is highly suggestive of a major severe weather/tornado outbreak occurring on at least one of these days, if not multiple days.

When do we tap out and say uncle. Honestly I can't remember a pattern this hyperactive since maybe May of 03.

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Operational and ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF have consistently indicated a huge longwave trough moving eastward over the Central U.S. during this time frame. Embedded within this large-scale trough will likely be at least a couple vort maxes, one of which looks likely to eject out into the Plains on April 25, and another right on its heels on April 26-27. Specifics are lacking at the moment since we're still 6+ days away, but the large-scale pattern is highly suggestive of a major severe weather/tornado outbreak occurring on at least one of these days, if not multiple days.

Yeah this one might be the real deal. The thing that worries me is that this year analogs 1974's spring the best and with all this actitvity it just seems like something extremely huge is eventually gonna blow up eventually. In NW Ohio this has probably been the most up and down spring I've ever witnessed. I mean it was in the 60s for about 2 weeks in mid march...cooled back down into the 40s and 30s...warmed up to 85 one day...back down to 40s...warmed into the 60s and now back into the 40s. Absolutely crazy

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may 2003 had 543 tornadoes, a record

I do believe the top 10 are all May or June

I'm not sure what the monthy record is for april..but we may smash that if trends continue

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The thing that strikes me at this distance out is the track of the lows farther nw than we have seen with our most recent svr outbreaks, across IA and WI, leading to a larger geographical extent of the warm sector.

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Glad to see a thread on this. Obviously this far out, we cannot get concerned with pinpointing specifics like boundaries and position of low / upper level jets, but given that I think the teleconnections favor the trough ejecting out of the west with a fairly broad base (as many model runs show) and we will have widespread 60+ dews in the eastern half of the nation, that is a recipe for potential trouble, no doubt.

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Yeah, I'm liking the potential for this system. Lack of moisture won't be an issue, and the GFS is suggesting slightly cooler mid-level temps than with the last system. There's also a good chance for seeing some short wave energy eject over the warm sector and spawn clusters of prefrontal convection, especially if the trough closes off. Cloud debris might be a hinderance for a lot of areas, but if cells generally don't become overly numerous and if shear profiles favor supercells over a broad enough area, it could be a major large-scale outbreak.

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Wow talk about a prolonged multi-day threat potential for significant severe weather. It has been a long time since I have seen that amplified of a flow pattern. Even with weak embedded anomalies in the flow (which as others have stated...will be difficult if not impossible to forecast at this juncture)--the jet pattern will be highly favorable as well. Definitely something to watch.

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hey guys! I just joined today! i am a member on accuweather forums to but this seems a lot more professional. i like it. but i totally agree, this system has the makings of a major outbreak. this is a large scale trough and is strongly negatively tilted. plenty of moisture will be able to advect well ahead of the trough. also with a neg tilt, more favorable shear and upper level dynamics will be more prone to cross into the warm sector. if the upper level forcing can pass over the cold front perpendicular, we can get more upper level turning. currently based on GFS, the turning looks to be confined to the lowest few kilometers. that is favorable for quick spin ups but for long track supercells and tornadoes you need deep rooted directional shear

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Even without looking at any parameter other than today's 18z GFS precip maps for 120, 126, and 130 hrs. I would be worried. They create extensive precip blotchiness from WI down to ne TX and then form a major squall line. Geesh!

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Even without looking at any parameter other than today's 18z GFS precip maps for 120, 126, and 130 hrs. I would be worried. They create extensive precip blotchiness from WI down to ne TX and then form a major squall line. Geesh!

and this..

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and this..

Wait this cant be a true, a chase potential on my day off ? :P

Talk about a high octane potential too. Like Baro said its been a while since we have seen a pattern like this. Compounded by what has already happened so far this month.

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Springfield MO

BY MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE OZARKS FROM THE WEST...ONLY TO FIRE OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR A SOLID EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME...MOST LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SIGNAL CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS SETUP LOOKS TO BE THE BEST ORGANIZED PATTERN FOR SEVERE STORMS WE`VE EXPERIENCED SINCE NEW YEARS EVE.

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Per Dr. Greg Forbes Facebook Page: Mon Apr 25. Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in east half KS, central and east OK, central TX as far south as San Antonio, northeast TX, west and north AR, MO, southeast IA, IL, IN, south MI, west OH, extreme west KY.Dr. Forbes FB Page

Not sure what model he is favoring. Per GFS the low and warm front dont surge through my area till Tues. From the 12z run on GFS, the warm front has made it to south Wisconsin. I am in west central Illinois. the low is in central Iowa by 18z. I am hoping the system does slow down and times for Monday because I can't chase till after 3pm Tues. haha

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Reuters reports that Henry Margusity says that there could be up to 300 tornadoes the next two weeks from OK to Ohio. With this pattern he may not be exaggerating.

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Bastardi is also onboard for a significant outbreak.

April, April and May Tornado totals likely to be Exceeded

By Joe Bastardi Posted in Blog Home Page | No Comments »While the next 5 days sees another moderate outbreak of severe weather this weekend ( and the snow again on the northern side) its next week another lawyers, guns and money outbreak takes place. We are liable to see another 100 to 200 tornadoes before the month is out, making it the most active April ever. My reasoning for this is based on the major, and progressive, trough that swings into the plains early next week, and is leading a major crushing of the eastern ridge that will then take us into a May much like 2008 temp and precip wise.

First the 168 hour ensemble shows the major trough in the plains, with the severe weather breaking out on the western high plains Sunday and spreading east after that ( it should be centered in the Miss valley by Tuesday)

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Reuters reports that Henry Margusity says that there could be up to 300 tornadoes the next two weeks from OK to Ohio. With this pattern he may not be exaggerating.

Yep! He just said that in an article on Accuweather on Tuesday. Pretty much non-stop outbreaks for a while now.

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Per Dr. Greg Forbes Facebook Page: Mon Apr 25. Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in east half KS, central and east OK, central TX as far south as San Antonio, northeast TX, west and north AR, MO, southeast IA, IL, IN, south MI, west OH, extreme west KY.Dr. Forbes FB Page

Not sure what model he is favoring. Per GFS the low and warm front dont surge through my area till Tues. From the 12z run on GFS, the warm front has made it to south Wisconsin. I am in west central Illinois. the low is in central Iowa by 18z. I am hoping the system does slow down and times for Monday because I can't chase till after 3pm Tues. haha

I could see the area he mentioned being very close to being correct as of right now.

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I would really like to know what model he is basing that forecast off of

Probably the GFS, its the hot hand right now. Although the Euro 12z has came in line with the GFS fairly nicely, so if that were to continue you would have inter/intramodel consistency from 2 of the best models.

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Probably the GFS, its the hot hand right now. Although the Euro 12z has came in line with the GFS fairly nicely, so if that were to continue you would have inter/intramodel consistency from 2 of the best models.

i thought the 12z Euro was faster than GFS? i could have sworn i saw the low in extreme NE Iowa by 12z Tues on Euro. and the GFS had it in central iowa. i could be mistaken. new Euro will be out in a few hrs and 0z GFS is in the process of coming out

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i thought the 12z Euro was faster than GFS? i could have sworn i saw the low in extreme NE Iowa by 12z Tues on Euro. and the GFS had it in central iowa. i could be mistaken. new Euro will be out in a few hrs and 0z GFS is in the process of coming out

A little faster but at this point for the low's to only be apart by half a state, and both be in the same general location is pretty good.

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Hopefully the 00z runs don't diverge too greatly in their outcomes so that the SPC can delineate some sort of 4-8 outlook area.

exactly my thinking. the anticipation is killing me. lol. i want to know how far i got to travel after class to see some severe weather ;)

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