Reed Stough Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I can't believe my one time going to Oklahoma and I could possibly miss a good severe weather event by 1 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The GFS also looks quite interesting for overnight Sunday into Monday. The 12Z GFS has 2,500 J/Kg of SBCAPE over OK at 6 AM Monday with a weak cap by afternoon/evening. I've already made the arrangements in my work schedule so I can be available to chase that day. Should the cap break on Saturday, then that has the potential to be an interesting caprock day. And by 12z Monday the area along I-70 in MO and I-64 from St. Louis area se to sw IN looks under the gun with areal coverage Monday contingent upon the retreating warm front based on Wednesday's 12z GFS. Instability is less than in OK, certainly, but cap issues might not be so prominent. I would definitely keep the warm front in mind with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looking at my AccuWeather pay per view graphics and skew-T, (Texas discussion here) while Houston looks post-frontal or outflow dominant, Euro seems to suggest a warm front in Northern Louisiana, with surface based cape near MLU (~32.6ºN, 92ºW) almost 1750 J/Kg and in excess of 300 m^2/s^2 with precip near/just West of the area. Monday late afternoon (Tuesday 0Z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 18z NAM makes southwest OK/north TX interesting on saturday breaking the cap but showing high LCL's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 18z NAM makes southwest OK/north TX interesting on saturday breaking the cap but showing high LCL's At this point, I'll take a beast of a supercell, and make no mistake, that would be a BEAST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At this point, I'll take a beast of a supercell, and make no mistake, that would be a BEAST! what are you trying to say with that face? haha Im guessing the TX crew will be chasing saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 STP bullseye as LLJ increases after 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 00z GFS is bringing mid 60's dews up here on Monday. edit: and CAPE in excess of 2000 lol. That would be astounding for early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 00Z GFS would be an OMG type of event for a lot of people on Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 The GFS depicts a major severe weather outbreak beginning late Sunday Night and continuing through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310909 SPC AC 310909 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2011 VALID 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG GFS...ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY CONVERGED TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION REGARDING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE DAY 4...THEN MS/OH VALLEYS AND SERN STATES DAY 5 AND FINALLY ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION DAY 6. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. ...DAY 4... LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL PLAINS LEE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING RICHER GULF MOISTURE THROUGH WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SRN-CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY. EML WILL EXPAND EWD AND EFFECTIVELY CAP WARM SECTOR EAST OF DRYLINE OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR IMPULSE TO EJECT EWD AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FROM KS SWD INTO OK AND NRN TX. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND INTERCEPTS THE DRYLINE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AREA. ...DAY 5... WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROBABLE DAY 5. GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG EWD MIGRATING LLJ. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME PROBABLE AS FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF STRONGER EML. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...DAY 6... SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES AND THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ..DIAL.. 03/31/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The GFS depicts a major severe weather outbreak beginning late Sunday Night and continuing through Tuesday. Yes, and the projected track of the low is moving northward with each model run leading to an expansive warm sector over the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valley southward. Will be interesting to see if this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Day 5 is a pretty huge area for a day 4-8 outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 Here is the GFS for Sunday Evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 12z NAM paints an ominious picture along the IA/MO border for sunday with dew points in the low-mid 60's and CAPE values between 1500-2500 j/kg. The problem is quite the strong cap to overcome, if only we could get a subtle wave to come along. It does look like the cap is weaker further south along the dryline. Will be keeping a close eye on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 haven't seen these types of numbers yet this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Monday evening (Tuesday 0Z) Euro 60ºF dewpoint is almost to Buffalo. Narrow stripe of what I assume are MU CAPE of 500J/Kg up to Central Ohio on the Euro for 0Z Tuesday, better CAPE confined to the Gulf Coast states. Euro seems to suggest one or two isolated cells Sunday afternoon/evening may go near DFW, over -100 J/Kg CING, hence the isolated, but TT of 56, 1800 J/Kg SB Cape and 200 m^2s^2. Cloud bases look about 800 mb, which may limit tornado threat, and the slight warm nose puts the LFC about 630 mb (small picture), but Euro does show something trying to pop, and a pretty good clockwise curved hodo at 96 hours (0Z Monday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Some pretty big changes on the 12z GFS. Models still struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 Changes with the 12z GFS but still a very nice large warm sector on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 12z GFS appears to be suffering from some pretty significant convective feedback issues come late Monday Night and Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The degree and extent of instability depicted on the models for the Monday/Tuesday event are extremely impressive thus far. This has been shown for some time now, owing to the favorable synoptics leading up to the event that favor deep moisture return and advection of the elevated mixed layer into the warm sector. What is going to make or break this event is the actual trough evolution. Although it seems too high-amplitude and a bit strung out right now for a large-scale tornado outbreak, this could change considerably over the next few days as it gets better sampled by radiosonde data, and the thermodynamic potential of this event is impossible to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 12z GFS brings the warm front up to about I-88 in IL on monday along with low 60 dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Latest thinking from Indpls. AFD shows the level of model uncertainty. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS THE BIG STORM SYSTEM PROGGED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE 2 DECENT ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE FIRST WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE SECOND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL PREVAILS. CURRENTLY...IF THE GFS WINS...IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND FORCING WITH THE EURO ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE. FIRST...THE EURO AND GFS ARE SOMEWHAT CLOSE WITH TIMING OF SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH AROUND TUE 06Z. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND THIS IS WHERE THEY DIFFER. THE GFS IS SHOWING THE JET IN EXCESS OF 75 KTS...BUT THE EURO IS SHOWING IT AT 60 TO 65 KTS AND FARTHER SOUTH. IF THE GFS PREVAILS...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE MAIN SHOW THOUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE ON TUESDAY EVENING IF THE GFS PREVAILS ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS TAKES THE VORT MAX DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...COUPLED WITH A 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE TIMING OF THE GFS IS MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT SINCE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PRIME HEATING OF THE DAY. THE EURO...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD BE TOO EARLY FOR THE MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...THE EURO TAKES THE VORT MAX OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The degree and extent of instability depicted on the models for the Monday/Tuesday event are extremely impressive thus far. This has been shown for some time now, owing to the favorable synoptics leading up to the event that favor deep moisture return and advection of the elevated mixed layer into the warm sector. What is going to make or break this event is the actual trough evolution. Although it seems too high-amplitude and a bit strung out right now for a large-scale tornado outbreak, this could change considerably over the next few days as it gets better sampled by radiosonde data, and the thermodynamic potential of this event is impossible to ignore. Agree with this completely. The consistent signal of impressive thermodynamics with the system leads to very little doubt that there will be at a minimum some significant severe in the form of wind/hail and maybe some tornadoes. The big questions come in the evolution of the trough and whether or not it will support a more major tornado outbreak. Right now, the models are really struggling, with the GFS trending toward earlier ECMWF runs, and ECMWF trending toward earlier GFS runs. Until all this is sorted out, trying to figure out the details/magnitude/timing of this system is almost fruitless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Quite the active wx in the Midwest if that Craven Sig Svr verifies. For what it's worth after browsing the winter page for this system I see the Ukie takes the low track into southern WI at 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 ILX favors the slower, stronger GFS at this time. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED CONCERNING THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE ROCKIES LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND TAKES THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION BECOMING POSITIVE...A STRONG ICELANDIC LOW AND RESULTING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FAVORED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A SLOWER/STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LIKE THE GFS IS SHOWING. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. END RESULT WOULD MEAN A BREEZY AND VERY WARM DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE 70S. IT WOULD ALSO MEAN A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AS ENTIRE CWA PUNCHES INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND INITIAL SURFACE WAVE TRACKS JUST N/NW OF THE AREA. SECOND WAVE RIDING ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E/SE MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY. ONCE THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT EXIT THE REGION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 If the GFS is correct both Monday and Tuesday would be significant severe weather days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 If the GFS is correct both Monday and Tuesday would be significant severe weather days Yeah, I can't believe how massive the warm sector on this could be and the gulf should be open for business too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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