Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

[Ed Lizard]

Local KHOU forum heating up with Severe Watch...

[msp]

well, not sure if we should do texas stuff here or that tor watch thread. regardless, we've now got a nice big svr watch to the west. no shocker that hgx is sitting between the two; c'est la vie. we should still get a little something tonight.

louisiana is looking much better than anywhere in the lone star state. meso page says 3km EHI up to 4 or 5 west of n'awlins.

[Srain]

well, not sure if we should do texas stuff here or that tor watch thread. regardless, we've now got a nice big svr watch to the west. no shocker that hgx is sitting between the two; c'est la vie. we should still get a little something tonight.

louisiana is looking much better than anywhere in the lone star state. meso page says 3km EHI up to 4 or 5 west of n'awlins.

Not much interest in either location on the board other than us it appears. Hopefully areas that need the rain, get it.

[msp]

nasty hook west of NOLA

[Ed Lizard]

nasty hook west of NOLA

Stole the image and hotlinked at

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/16244-tornado-watch-329/page__gopid__592809#entry592809

The Louisiana watch thread...

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0307

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0559 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/S-CENTRAL TX...PRIMARILY SRN HILL

COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU TO MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COASTAL

BEND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...

VALID 292259Z - 300100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73

CONTINUES.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FCST TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF

SFC COLD FRONT OVER THIS REGION AS FRONT IMPINGES ON HIGHER-THETAE

WARM SECTOR OVER S TX...LARGE HAIL AND OCNL DAMAGING GUSTS EXPECTED.

LAST SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM NEAR GTU WSWWD ACROSS

EDWARDS/VAL VERDE COUNTIES...AND CROSSING RIO GRANDE S OF

6R6...MOVING SSEWD AT ABOUT 15 KT. S OF FRONT...CONVECTION

CONTINUES TO FORM OVER SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE IN COAHUILA...BUT

GENERALLY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AFTER MOVING E OF MOUNTAINS AND AWAY

FROM OROGRAPHIC FORCING SOURCE. STILL...CINH MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO

ALLOW ONE OR TWO SUCH TSTMS TO ACQUIRE SUSTAINED ROTATION AND REACH

RIO GRANDE AFTER 00Z...ESPECIALLY ANY LEFT-MOVERS OR BOWS THAT MAY

FORM. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH 40-50

KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. PRONOUNCED COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN

PREFRONTAL/LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...BOTH AS OBSERVED IN DFX VWP AND AS

PREDICTED REASONABLY WELL BY RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...YIELDS FAR MORE

NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE SRH FOR ALL BUT EXTREMELY DEVIANT/FAST

RIGHT-MOVERS...WHICH ARE UNLIKELY EXCEPT WHERE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING N OR NE OF MEX MOUNTAINS MAY BE UNDERCUT

BY ZONAL SEGMENT OF COLD FRONT SOON THEREAFTER...AS HAS ISOLATED

CELL OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEEPENING

FARTHER ENE ALONG MORE SW-NE ALIGNED FRONTAL SEGMENT FROM

EDWARDS-LLANO COUNTIES AS OF 2230Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE ACCESS

TO WARM-SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ANY

TSTMS THAT CAN AVOID ACQUIRING LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLULAR

CHARACTERISTICS AND MOVE EWD/SEWD AT LEAST IN STEP WITH BOUNDARY

TRANSLATION. MOST STORM MOTIONS NEAR FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO

HODOGRAPH...WITH FRONTAL FORCING EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTING TO DOMINANT

QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.

..EDWARDS.. 03/29/2011

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[Ed Lizard]

AccuWx 12Z numbers out, about half an inch Monday evening, still the 0Z graphics, I wanted to see if there was any fun-derstorm potential with that, but will have to wait.

Edit to add:

Precip fields, HOU area kind of gets scraped by what looks to be potentially significant weather passing just North of here. Lufkin gets an inch and a quarter.

A little activity in East Texas but not SETX during the weekend. CAPE just over 3000 J/KG Monday evening (0Z Tuesday) HOU just before precip arrives. As a qualifier, surface, most unstable, I do not know. Skew-T below numbers not that high.

0Z skew-T forcast from Euro, probably unbreakable cap at 800 mb. LFC just below 600 mb. Wasted helicity as well, although upper level winds not amazing, 50 to 60 knots 500 mb and up. 6Z skew-T, after rain arrived, North winds. A 135 hour forecast skew-T would be interesting.

CLL and UTS are in the rain with a wind shift, a generic 30.5, 95.5 has a much diminished warm nose, although LFC is still about 650 mb, just shy 2000 J/Kg surface and just shy of 200 m^2/s^2. I think Euro is suggesting storms are on and behind the front, but a good gusty thunderstorm with a cool rush is ok by me.

[Srain]

HGX:

AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE

NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

WE ARE ALREADY CARRYING CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT...AND THIS STILL

LOOKS GOOD. THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG SEVERE

WEATHER PRODUCER...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA

AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHEASTERN

STATES. WILL WE GET ANY SEVERE HERE? WE SHALL SEE.

[Ed Lizard]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/iahgfs.png

0Z GFS (link will be 12Z GFS after lunch) suggests it remains darned dry here in SETX. Euro is more optimistic. Over a half on Monday.

Difference between not a near miss and a near miss...

[Srain]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0743 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2011

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX...

SURFACE LOW ANALYZED N OF ABI AS OF 11Z WILL DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE

HILL COUNTRY TODAY...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY A

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. A MODIFIED CP

AIR MASS --DELINEATED BY PW VALUES OF .75-1.00 INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN

THE LOWER TO MID 60S-- WILL BE ADVECTED NWD IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE

LOW...AND S OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE RED RIVER

VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING

AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A

MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES

APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.

WHILE SYNOPTIC-SCALE HEIGHT RISES IN THE MIDLEVELS ARE FORECAST

ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE AND WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING

INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS COULD GLANCE THE REGION DURING THE PEAK

OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. WHEN COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED

CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT-DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT...POTENTIAL

WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW

VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR...

SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL

WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING.

[Ed Lizard]

HGX mentioned isolated storms forming between about ACT and DFW, and mentioned they'd keep an eye out for anything drifting into the Northern counties (I'm guessing Houston, Washington, Trinity, Madison-ish counties) but think they'd be coming in after peak heating and on a weakening trend.

Edit to add as first post on page- a response to Steve's post about an SPC "See Text" area in parts of Texas...

[Ed Lizard]

I know Day Light Savings means having to stay up later at night (stay up later in the human world) to see 0Z models, and thus isn't all good (post-work yard work makes up for it, mostly), but a cu field at 2 pm, it is really only 1 pm solar, 4 or 5 hours of decent insolation left.

6.7º/Km lapsed rates 3 km to 6 km per 12Z FWD sounding, and lots of daytime heating, well, 18Z RUC does pop a few isolated showers or storms along the I-35 corridor and a little East the next 3 to 6 hours.

Isolated, RUC soundings still show CINH looking around the NIU sounding machine at 4 pm and 7 pm for all the 3 digit airport codes that immediately come to mind, but approaching 2000 J/Kg to work with and a big dewpoint depression to help chill and accelerate downdrafts, as alluded to in Steve's SWODY1 "See Text".

http://www.meteo.psu.../rucloopsc.html

[msp]

i'm just about giving up on rain. every chance we've had at some has evaporated. drought monitor now talking about how some indicators in east tx are now in D4.

looks like we'll end march with only 0.69" in the bucket... less than a fourth of normal.

[Ed Lizard]

i'm just about giving up on rain. every chance we've had at some has evaporated. drought monitor now talking about how some indicators in east tx are now in D4.

looks like we'll end march with only 0.69" in the bucket... less than a fourth of normal

New Euro has gone dry. New GFS skims us, apparently a cap that can barely be broken by frontal forcing. Post frontal Monday evening, Monday morning shows some decent parameters for strong storms wasted by very warm/dry temps at 700 mb.

A quarter inch at a time, once a week, won't help ease the drought any.

[Ed Lizard]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0227 PM CDT FRI APR 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011927Z - 012100Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL TX OVER THE NEXT

FEW HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

STRONG SUNSHINE HAS SERVED TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS

NCNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON...PER NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC VALUES IN THE

LOWEST 3KM. THIS SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO NEAR 700MB

AND CURRENT CU FIELD THAT IS EXPANDING NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL

LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 22Z. LATEST

THINKING IS WARM ADVECTION PROFILES WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF

ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE

HAIL AND MORE LIKELY GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD

ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS THAT EVOLVE OVER THIS REGION SHOULD MOVE

SLOWLY SEWD THEN WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AT THIS TIME

IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..DARROW.. 04/01/2011

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

[msp]

New Euro has gone dry. New GFS skims us, apparently a cap that can barely be broken by frontal forcing. Post frontal Monday evening, Monday morning shows some decent parameters for strong storms wasted by very warm/dry temps at 700 mb.

A quarter inch at a time, once a week, won't help ease the drought any.

and we didn't even get a quarter inch a couple days ago like IAH did. we picked up a whopping total of 0.01"

in fact, before that hundredth of an inch, we hadn't had measurable rain since the 14th

[Ed Lizard]

The weak boundary is perfectly aligned for Metroplex excitement, but so far, nothing.

[TXWXCHX]

and we didn't even get a quarter inch a couple days ago like IAH did. we picked up a whopping total of 0.01"

in fact, before that hundredth of an inch, we hadn't had measurable rain since the 14th

I'll TAKE IT!!!

Dusty dusty dry here

[Ed Lizard]

Looks post frontal, which always cuts down on excitement level, but for a half to a quarter, I hope the GFS is superior to the NAM.

[Ed Lizard]

On last nights cycle, Europe was sort of Houston's friend, right at a half inch, but I-35 corridor, not so much.

[Ed Lizard]

NAM is dry in Dallas tomorrow...

[TXWXCHX]

NAM is dry in Dallas tomorrow...

La Nina appears to be entrenched til fall - I'm gearing up for a very, VERY dry summer. Hay crop is already poor according to the latest ag reports; that may cause me, along with many others, to give my herd of beloved longhorns to someone with more pasture. They are my girls and I don't want to send them to the sale barn, so to the neighbor they go...

[Ed Lizard]

La Nina appears to be entrenched til fall - I'm gearing up for a very, VERY dry summer. Hay crop is already poor according to the latest ag reports; that may cause me, along with many others, to give my herd of beloved longhorns to someone with more pasture. They are my girls and I don't want to send them to the sale barn, so to the neighbor they go...

That is too bad.

[Srain]

Childress has reach 100F right behind the dryline...

[Ed Lizard]

If Norman sounidng is anywhere close to indicative of Dallas, they won't be breaking the cap anytime

[Ed Lizard]

Serious wasted CAPE and lapse rates at DFW...

[Witness Protection Program]

Thunder and rain in Ft. Worth! My grandfather told me of such things, so glad I lived to see it...

[bubba hotep]

Jackpot!

[Ed Lizard]

That was something of a pleasant surprise.

[Srain]