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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

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20.8F here this morning. I'm looking forward to those warmer temps. But will that West Coast Trough come at a price?

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

756 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

VALID 12Z MON FEB 14 2011 - 12Z THU FEB 17 2011

GLOBAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN

DEVELOPING OVER THE CONUS DAYS 3-7 WITH AN EMBEDDED PROGRESSIVE

SHORTWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE EVOLUTION THAT CHANGES FROM NEARLY ZONAL BY

DAY 3 TO SUPPORTING A SEMI-LARGE UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE BETWEEN

THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES BY DAY 7. THE ANTICIPATED RANGE OF

THE TROUGH POSITION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO ORIGINATE

FROM GROWING SOLUTION SPREAD IN THE EVOLVING SHORTWAVE PATTERN

OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHERN RUSSIA. THE WINTER STORM

RECONNAISSANCE PROGRAM IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR A FLIGHT OUT OF

ANCHORAGE AROUND 12Z TODAY TO SAMPLE THE GULF OF ALASKA AREA WHICH

MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SOLUTION CONVERGENCE WHEN THEIR SOLUTIONS

ARRIVE. BUT UNTIL THEN...THE RECOMMENDATION IS FOR A DETERMINISTIC

CONSENSUS EARLY AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE LATE. THUS...THE PRELIM

PRESSURES/FRONT WILL BEGIN WITH ABOUT A 50/50 00Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND

DAY 3...THEN END WITH 100 PERCENT 12Z NAEFS BCMEAN BY DAY 7 WHEN

UNCERTAINTY IS GREATEST.

...MORNING UPDATED PRELIMS...

WITH BASICALLY VERY GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY

5 TUESDAY AND THEN SHORTWAVE TIMING IN AN AGREED UPON EPAC/WRN

CONUS TROF DAYS 6 AND 7 WED/THU IT IS SIMPLER TO USE AN ENSEMBLE

MEAN BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF RIGHT THROUGHT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND

MORE LIKELY TO HAVE BETTER VERIFICATION.

AGAIN A TRANSITION FROM A WARMER DRIER WEST TO COOLER AND MUCH

WETTER CENTRAL AND NRN PACIFIC COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM CENTRAL AND

ERN CONUS WARMING AND DRYING.

JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

20.8F here this morning. I'm looking forward to those warmer temps. But will that West Coast Trough come at a price?

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

756 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

VALID 12Z MON FEB 14 2011 - 12Z THU FEB 17 2011

GLOBAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN

DEVELOPING OVER THE CONUS DAYS 3-7 WITH AN EMBEDDED PROGRESSIVE

SHORTWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE EVOLUTION THAT CHANGES FROM NEARLY ZONAL BY

DAY 3 TO SUPPORTING A SEMI-LARGE UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE BETWEEN

THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES BY DAY 7. THE ANTICIPATED RANGE OF

THE TROUGH POSITION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO ORIGINATE

FROM GROWING SOLUTION SPREAD IN THE EVOLVING SHORTWAVE PATTERN

OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHERN RUSSIA. THE WINTER STORM

RECONNAISSANCE PROGRAM IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR A FLIGHT OUT OF

ANCHORAGE AROUND 12Z TODAY TO SAMPLE THE GULF OF ALASKA AREA WHICH

MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SOLUTION CONVERGENCE WHEN THEIR SOLUTIONS

ARRIVE. BUT UNTIL THEN...THE RECOMMENDATION IS FOR A DETERMINISTIC

CONSENSUS EARLY AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE LATE. THUS...THE PRELIM

PRESSURES/FRONT WILL BEGIN WITH ABOUT A 50/50 00Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND

DAY 3...THEN END WITH 100 PERCENT 12Z NAEFS BCMEAN BY DAY 7 WHEN

UNCERTAINTY IS GREATEST.

...MORNING UPDATED PRELIMS...

WITH BASICALLY VERY GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY

5 TUESDAY AND THEN SHORTWAVE TIMING IN AN AGREED UPON EPAC/WRN

CONUS TROF DAYS 6 AND 7 WED/THU IT IS SIMPLER TO USE AN ENSEMBLE

MEAN BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF RIGHT THROUGHT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND

MORE LIKELY TO HAVE BETTER VERIFICATION.

AGAIN A TRANSITION FROM A WARMER DRIER WEST TO COOLER AND MUCH

WETTER CENTRAL AND NRN PACIFIC COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM CENTRAL AND

ERN CONUS WARMING AND DRYING.

JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

We are doing okay up this way but there are some portions of Texas that can't really afford a long stretch of dry weather. The GFS op and Ens both hint at the potential for rain in the long range but nothing that looks overly heavy. We got pretty lucky that the warm and dry predictions didn't verify or much of Texas would be under the drought gun.

tx_dm.png

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Euro ensembles are a bit less amplified on the West Coast trough, but not radically different form the op. Looks warm and dry in the medium range. If that low dropping South can cut off and "bowling ball" we'd be in business, but positive tilted troughs as Texas moves into Spring usually cause capping issues locally

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011021000!!chart.gif

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011021000!!chart.gif

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Srain

Srain

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Impressive...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1021 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011

            ...FEBRUARY BEGINS ON A FRIGID NOTE...

         ...FEBRUARY 2011 LOW TEMPERATURE AVERAGE
                 IS THE COLDEST ON RECORD...

FEBRUARY 2011 HAS BEGUN ON A RATHER FRIGID NOTE. AT HOUSTON...
NINE OF THE FIRST TEN MORNINGS FELL BELOW FREEZING. SEVEN OF THE
FIRST TEN MORNINGS WERE BELOW FREEZING AT HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT
AND AT COLLEGE STATION. THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE FOR THE
FIRST NINE DAYS OF FEBRUARY ARE EITHER THE THIRD OR FOURTH COLDEST
START TO FEBRUARY IN RECORDED HISTORY. THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE
OVER THE FIRST NINE DAYS OF THE MONTH WERE THE COLDEST ON RECORD
FOR ALL FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES. BELOW ARE THE ICY DETAILS:

               DATA - FEBRUARY 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 9

                            HOUSTON

       AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

       44.7 1895            27.0 2011          37.6 1895
       45.1 1905            30.6 1985          38.2 1985
       45.8 1985            30.6 1895          39.5 2011
       47.4 1978            33.2 1972          39.9 1905
       49.6 1982            34.4 1978          40.9 1978

8TH     52.0 2011

                          HOUSTON HOBBY

       AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

       47.2 1978            30.3 2011          41.5 1985
       47.8 1985            33.8 1951          41.5 1978
       49.7 1982            34.7 1947          41.7 2011
       50.1 1989            35.2 1985          43.2 1989
       51.9 1979            35.8 1978          43.5 1982

6TH     53.0 2011

                         COLLEGE STATION

       AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

       43.1 1905            26.6 2011          37.1 1985
       44.4 1978            26.7 1951          37.3 1989
       45.0 1985            28.6 1989          39.3 1978
       46.0 1989            29.2 1985          39.6 2011
       46.8 1979            29.6 1905          40.6 1979

7TH     52.6 2011
                            GALVESTON

       AVG HIGH             AVG LOW            AVG DAILY

       44.2 1985            33.1 2011          39.8 1985
       45.0 1895            35.4 1985          40.2 1895
       45.9 1905            35.4 1895          41.4 1905
       46.7 1978            36.9 1905          41.5 2011
       49.7 1989            38.8 1978          42.7 1978

6TH     49.9 2011

BELOW IS ANOTHER TABLE WITH DATA FOR THE MOST DAYS BELOW 32
DEGREES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY:

           HOUSTON     HOU HOBBY     GALVESTON

         12 - 1895     7 - 2011      9 - 1895
          9 - 2011     6 - 1989      6 - 2011
          9 - 1978     6 - 1951      5 - 1899
          8 - 1989     5 - 1960      4 - 1905
          7 - 1905     4 - 1996      4 - 1989
          7 - 1899

RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS ON THE WAY. A FEW MORE COLD MORNINGS ARE
EXPECTED AND THEN A WARM UP BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COLD AIR WILL FINALLY RETREAT TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

$$

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OHSnow

OHSnow

Posted
Posted

Some interesting obs out in west Texas... you can really see the effects of the snow. In the middle of the snowfield, temps are some 20 degrees colder and dewpoints 20 degrees higher. Pampa looks to be roughly half way between Childress, TX and Guymon, OK but is more than 20 degrees colder than both of those locations.

Current temps / dewpoints in the areas that saw the most snow...

Amarillo 50/25

Pampa 45/30

Borger 56/25

Dumas 57/26

Hereford 60/26

Current temps / dewpoints north of there

Dalhart 61/16

Clayton 62/8

Guymon 66/13

Current temps / dewpoints south of there

Clovis 63/10

Lubbock 66/4

Childress 69/15

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Srain

Srain

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FOR BOTH HOUSTON AND GALVESTON...THIS FEBRUARY HAS HAD MORE FREEZES
THAN ANY OTHER FEBRUARY EXCEPT 1895...THE SAME FEBRUARY THAT BOTH
CITIES RECEIVED THEIR ALL-TIME RECORD SNOWSTORM (15-20 INCHES). THE
WINTER OF 2010-2011 HAS HAD MORE DAYS WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
THAN ANY WINTER SINCE THE 1983-1984 WINTER SEASON. FOR GALVESTON...
NINE FREEZES HAVE BEEN RECORDED THIS WINTER. WHAT`S REMARKABLE IS
THAT GALVESTON RECENTLY WENT FIVE CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR YEARS (2005
THROUGH 2009) WITHOUT A SINGLE [url="/glossary.php?word=FREEZE"]FREEZE[/url] BEING RECORDED.

HOUSTON - MOST DAYS IN FEBRUARY WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 14 DAYS - FEB 1895
2. 12 DAYS - FEB 2011
3.  9 DAYS - FEB 1989*
4.  8 DAYS - FEB 1905
5.  7 DAYS - FEB 2002*

HOUSTON - MOST DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 42 DAYS - 1977-1978
2. 36 DAYS - 1976-1977
3. 34 DAYS - 1975-1976
4. 30 DAYS - 1969-1970
5. 26 DAYS - 1970-1971
6. 25 DAYS - 1983-1984*
7. 23 DAYS - 2010-2011*
30-YEAR AVERAGE (1981-2010): 12.5 DAYS

GALVESTON - MOST DAYS IN FEBRUARY WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 10 DAYS - FEB 1895
2.  8 DAYS - FEB 2011
3.  5 DAYS - FEB 1989*
4.  4 DAYS - FEB 1960*
5.  3 DAYS - FEB 1996*

GALVESTON - MOST DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 15 DAYS - 1929-1930
2. 14 DAYS - 1894-1895
3. 12 DAYS - 1962-1963*
4. 11 DAYS - 1983-1984*
5. 10 DAYS - 1917-1918
6.  9 DAYS - 2010-2011*
30-YEAR AVERAGE (1981-2010): 2.5 DAYS

HOUSTON RECORDS BACK TO 1892
GALVESTON RECORDS BACK TO 1875
* MEANS ALSO RECORDED IN EARLIER YEARS

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Perhaps it's me, but smell some cloudy damp days ahead with those 40's Coastal water temps lurking...

I get the hope from local forum met WxMan57 that onshore flow, while having a price in low clouds and maybe fog the next few days, might help bring warmer water close to the coast and get that cool water to sink, so when primetime severe season starts in a little over a month we won't get that dreary low clouds under the cap that don't mix out and preventing the insolation that would break the cap.

Don't know how many fun-derstorm opportunities we lose that way locally.

Uncovered the orange tree again Saturday, more foliage damage, but still some undamaged leaves, some optimism it makes it. Science project mystery citrus, the root stock that started growing when seedless and thornless satsuma died in last years freeze, no foliage left at all, but all hope not lost, thorny stems have green color that suggests it may be alive.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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I'm thinking HOU area would be capped, but NE Texas, my quick look off the Euro, an LLJ and decent 500 mb winds. Next day doesn't look bad either. Euro dampens out the trough as it heads towards us, however. Euro isn't enthusiastic on storms or CAPE anywhere in Texas at/around 144 or 168 per AccuWx PPV, but this time of year, a look at 850 mb winds and 500 mb heights can sometimes suggest something a few days in advance.

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011021400!!chart.gif

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011021400!!chart.gif

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aslkahuna

aslkahuna

Posted
Posted

Preliminary figures present near USD$4 billion in crop damages in Mexico due to the hard freezes (could be a record figure for crop damages). Many of those produces are heavily exported to the States. Expect more rises in agricultural products.

Not just Mexico but Arizona took it in the shorts too as did the Imperial Valley.

Steve

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

With forecast 500 mb winds from the SW, I could wishcast either a glancing blow of cold air mostly to our East, or a shallow cold air mass, over running, and maybe cold air just thick enough for sleet or snow instead of freezing rain.

My AccuWx graphics haven't updated yet. So its a mystery whether we get high relative humidities aloft.

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