Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

[msp]

I have not seen a severe criteria t-storm in person in at least 2 1/2 years.

That dark blue area along the coast exists not just to spoil Spring Break, but to cause low clouds and fog to form as high dewpoint air comes from the Southern Gulf. Those low clouds get trapped under the inversion, and ensure not enough insolation to get enough heating to break the inversion. Everybody downwind of the Mexican highlands get capped to some degree, but if you can get six good hours of near full Sun, if all is otherwise right in the world, it'll probably break. Except the HGX CWA, the most accursed severe weather (or lack thereof) area in the world.

and i thought being so far north in the spring and missing out on svr wx was bad.

out of the frying pan, into the fire.

And it was probably one of the coldest Niña winters for the region.

remind me to book it out of here when we get an actual niña winter.

And you may not see another one like it for awhile. Perhaps Tropical Season will give you some excitement...

well, hermine did set the bar pretty low.

[Srain]

Rain chances are looking meager for tomorrow. There does appear to be chances of some lighter showers and perhaps a bit more coverage near coastal areas. The best chance we've seen in a while looks to next Tuesday night into Wednesday as a much stronger storm system moves across the area with a trailing cold front. In fact, thunderstorms look promising at this range with less in the way of capping and the Upper Air disturbance also looks to be a bit further S as well. Fingers crossed for a better chance at some much needed and a bit more widespread rain fall event as we look toward mid next week.

[Ed Lizard]

I'll shake the hand of any raindrops that can fall the next hour or two...

[Srain]

It's good to finally see some rain and even some thunderstorms along the Coast. Those temp drops behind the front are going to be the real shocker for today/tonight.

[Ed Lizard]

It's good to finally see some rain and even some thunderstorms along the Coast. Those temp drops behind the front are going to be the real shocker for today/tonight.

I wanted more.

A quarter inch isn't much, but a LI of almost -6º, maybe we'll get lucky. Although I want my storms in the afternoon when I can fully appreciate them. Maybe the model will slow down a touch.

[msp]

managed 0.38" here. better than i expected.

pushing 60F now too. would be a halfway decent day if it weren't for the wind.

[Srain]

Pffft...

Not even a tenth of an inch here this morning. That said, It is looking a bit more promising for Tuesday night/Wednesday with a bit better moisture return and a weakening cap.

[msp]

cloudy, windy, dry and 66F.

we really need some rain tomorrow.

[Srain]

Showers under the cap looks like the theme for the day in SE TX. I'll take what ever rainfall we can get. Looking ahead, Sunday/Monday may offer a bit more wide spred coverage for the Lone Star State, hopefully.

[Ed Lizard]

GFS and NAM both look fairly dry for SE Texas.

[bubba hotep]

so that was winter?

meh.

65F and cloudy. what's it going to take to get a tstorm here?

Winter was a very nice surprise up this way. We ended up with about a foot of snow for the winter but I am so glad that the warmer weather is finally here!

[Srain]

Boring weather. Drought getting more serious by the day. Now an Upper Ridge looks to develop next week. Then comes the heat. Yawn...

[Paul_B]

North Texas is having some wildfire issues today... Primarily in Denton, Wise, Jack, and Bosque Counties... These are some large fires that have shutdown 287 near Rhome and are threatening structures

[Ed Lizard]

North Texas is having some wildfire issues today... Primarily in Denton, Wise, Jack, and Bosque Counties... These are some large fires that have shutdown 287 near Rhome and are threatening structures

Coworker coming back from Southwest Wichita county got detoured by that.

Thursday, they had a controlled burn in the Sam Houston national Forest, and the haze actually caused a perceptible reduction in visibility in Houston. I guess controlled burns are a good idea during a drought, create natural fire breaks. We had a decent North breeze Thursday, I would have thought they would have wanted calmer winds, but calm winds around here are usually infrequent.

GFS shows a couple of tenths Monday, or just enough to stick pollen and dust to cars.

[Srain]

Fingers crossed for some showers/storms tomorrow along the cold front...

[Ed Lizard]

The models today are somewhat more encouraging about tomorrow. Not a drought buster, but a quarter to a half seems possible.

MUCAPE near 750 J/Kg

If either the instability was a bit stronger or the winds were a nit stronger isolated severe would seem possible. As it is, especially with a TT over 50, at least the small joy of lightning seems possible.

[Ed Lizard]

Oh please...

[Srain]

Oh please...

Almost a 1/2 inch with the first band. More ahead.

[Ed Lizard]

My lawn sings in joy!

[Srain]

It's been awhile since we've seen one of these from HGX.. .

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1038 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2011

TXZ199-200-212>214-227-237-141630-

BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-HARRIS-LIBERTY-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-

1038 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH HOUSTON...

AT 1035 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF

KINGWOOD TO KATY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE

STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SAN JACINTO STATE

PARK...PORTER...NEW CANEY...MEMORIAL...LAKE HOUSTON DAM...ADDICKS...

WOODLOCH...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...TOWN WEST...TOMBALL...THE

WOODLANDS...SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...SPRING VALLEY...SPRING...SOUTH

HOUSTON...PLUM GROVE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PEARLAND...PATTISON...

PASADENA...MISSOURI CITY...MISSION BEND...MEADOWS...MANVEL...

KINGWOOD...KATY...JERSEY VILLAGE...JACINTO CITY...IOWA COLONY...

HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...HUMBLE...HOUSTON...HILSHIRE VILLAGE...

HIGHLANDS...GALENA PARK...FRESNO...FIRST COLONY...DEER PARK...

DAYTON...CLOVERLEAF...CHATEAU WOODS...CHANNELVIEW...BUNKER HILL

VILLAGE...BROOKSHIRE...BELLAIRE...BARRETT...ARCOLA AND ALDINE.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS TO

BLOW AROUND. AVOID TALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN ATTRACT LIGHTNING

AND DO NOT USE ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES OR A CORDED TELEPHONE A THE

LIGHTNING THREAT HAS PASSED. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR

NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

[Ed Lizard]

Right about an inch at the house based on HGX 88D rainfall

[Srain]

What a great early Spring weekend ahead. Warm temps look to continue until around WednesdayThursday of next week when we may see a weak front. There are some hints via guidance that a bit more widespread rain may well enter the picture around next Friday and just maybe continue into next weekend. Enjoy the weekend everyone, and think rain!

[Ed Lizard]

Maybe I'm trying to make chicken salad from something else, but offshore winds cause upwelling, plus tend to be cool and dry, further cooling the near shore waters. Looks like onshore flow all week, maybe later in April we won't be cursed with a low cloud layer stuck under the inversion in SE Texas, such that sufficient insolation will break the cap, and we can have pages of fun with severe weather.

Look, SSE winds (as of Monday morning) and the SST isn't colder than the dewpoint!

Granted, the somewhat unimpressive dewpoint is sort of a symptom of high pressure in the Gulf, but still, onshore winds and near full sunshine, maybe we'll be rewarded mid-April!

[msp]

it'd be gorgeous out if it wasn't for that damn wind gusting above 30. still praying for that rain.

[Srain]

Fingers crossed...

[msp]

at least we got a wind advisory out of today. already gusting to 31. should top that by 5 or so by later today.

12z gfs breaking stuff out across cTX by sat. afternoon. still waiting on a legit svr risk here this spring.

[Ed Lizard]

The trend in near shore sea surface temps, the caps secret partner in ruined severe crime, is trending the right way. Maybe just low dewpoints, but the low clouds mixed out nicely today.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?station=42035&meas=wtmp&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

Of course, the low clouds mixing out early may be a product of only about 1000 meters of reasonably humid air.

[Ed Lizard]

Some happy news. As I keep saying, broken record style, it isn't just the cap, its the low clouds from higher DP air crossing cold shelf waters.

And the glass is approaching half full...

[Ed Lizard]

12ºF dewpoint difference and a wind shift between CLL and CXO.

Maybe we'll get lucky, Spring day, surface boundary in the area.

But probably not.

[Srain]

Encouraging to see guidance hinting on a bit of a pattern change and possibly a bit of relief in the ongoing drought across TX. As we end March, rain chances and cooler temps look likely. After weeks of nothing but dry and boring, any change will be welcomed.