jasons Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'll take it! My pool hit 80F a week ago before last week's cold front. I'm hoping it's back up to 80F again this weekend. With it being 90+ outside, pool weather will be here :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I hope there is a 17 or 18Z balloon from FWD. SPC has extended SLIGHT area well down I-35, but the 12Z sounding had what looked like a cap of forged steel on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Just hit 90F in NW Harris County this hour. Perhaps the warmest day of the season so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I hope there is a 17 or 18Z balloon from FWD. SPC has extended SLIGHT area well down I-35, but the 12Z sounding had what looked like a cap of forged steel on it... Just noticed that Ed ... am hopeful we'll get some action here in Bevo Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Storms are firing just to our E again. This looks to be the 4th time we have cashed in on some nice spring storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Tarrant County North of I-820 seeing some action, and Denton County storm may be RH turning to clip Dallas County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Some ominous clouds churning along the dry line here in Ft.Worth but they didn't drop down, not enough rotation. Did get hail the size of goofballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 The Metroplex always gets lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Meanwhile: Fire Warning TXC363-192330- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FIRE WARNING TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 530 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 ..THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF PALO PINTO COUNTY JUDGE... THIS IS AN EVACUATION NOTICE. EVACUATION OF PALO PINTO CITY IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FIRE. REMAIN CAUTIOUS...AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE SMOKE IS TOO THICK TO SEE THROUGH. YOU MAY BE DRIVING INTO A FIRE. $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I hope more rain than lightning. The fire North of SJT was a lightning sparked fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Meanwhile: Fire Warning TXC363-192330- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FIRE WARNING TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 530 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 ..THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF PALO PINTO COUNTY JUDGE... THIS IS AN EVACUATION NOTICE. EVACUATION OF PALO PINTO CITY IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FIRE. REMAIN CAUTIOUS...AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE SMOKE IS TOO THICK TO SEE THROUGH. YOU MAY BE DRIVING INTO A FIRE. $ Not quite as as obvious now, but still there, but you could see the smoke plume from P.P. County on the FWD radar. I was F-5ing a lot waiting for storm initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 hit 96F here today. broke the record high by two degrees. looks like galveston tied their record high too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 hit 96F here today. broke the record high by two degrees. looks like galveston tied their record high too. What is the average high/low this time of year for College Station? That just sounds brutally anomalous for mid-April. I'm wonder if we'll see the heat in the Southern Plains continue into the summer given the dry soil/fire conditions, with that heat ridge eventually spreading to the rest of the country as it did in Summer 1988. I'm aware that was a first year Niña summer within the transition away from El Niño, and those tend to be much hotter nationally...but I'm still not buying the idea of a cold summer which is what the analogs suggest for the summer following a strong Niña. I think the extreme aridity over the Southern Plains could be telling us something about where the ridge will set up, with the Northern Tier staying cooler due to most of the hemisphere's cold air being over Canada in the -EPO pattern that's prevailed recently. Could be an interesting recipe for storms with the ridge over the S. Plains meeting that colder air in the Upper Midwest, might see a lot of cold pool severe events in the Mid-Atlantic like 2008 which had a bit of a similar pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 New NAM has a few storms just West of I-35. Good mid level instability, fairly meager wind fields, but a halfway decent delta dewpoint to temperature might produce some gusty winds. If its more rain than lightning, its a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Fingers crossed... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...CNTRL/ERN TX EWD TO GA... 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT AN EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A MOIST WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 2000-4000 J/KG. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE NE. AS SUCH...TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD AND LARGE-SCALE FOR ASCENT WILL CORRESPONDINGLY DIMINISH. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYED OR ONGOING STORMS WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 0Z Yurpian Community still shows over an inch late Monday. It might not be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 SPC MCD for isolated storms around San Angelo. They could use the rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 From Nesdis: LOCATION...W CENTRAL/CENTRAL TEXAS... . ATTN WFOS...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... ATTN RFCS...WGRFC... . EVENT...STNRY CELLS AND FF THREAT BEGINNING TO INCREASE . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTORMS IN W CENTRAL TX CONTINUES TO EXPAND BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE REMAINING NRLY STNRY WHERE THEY ORIGINALLY FORMED..ESPECIALLY THOSE IN KIMBLE/MENARD COUNTIES. FRONTAL BNDRY IS DRAPED W-E ACROSS W CENTRAL TX AND THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BEFORE IT TURNS NEWD NR KGRK. SMALL S/WV IMPULSE TRAVELING SEWD OVER TX AROUND 18Z APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE TRIGGER TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP OVER THIS REGION. MOISTURE ASSCD WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS STARTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AS TWO THINGS HAVE HAPPENED..1) BLENDED TPW SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 1" PW'S THAT HAD MOVED NEWD ACROSS THE WRN GOM TDY AND 2) JUST AFTER 18Z THE 85H WIND FLOW ALONG THE TX COAST BEGAN TURNING FROM SRLY TO SERLY..WHICH WILL SLOWLY ALLOWING GOM MOISTURE TO SPREAD NWWD INTO THE HEART OF TX OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS. CURRENT PW VALUES INVOF THE STORMS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 0.9-1.1". . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230-0130Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER NWWD IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME EXACTLY HOW IT WILL AFFECT THE ONGOING CNVTN OVER W CENTRAL TX. CURRENT SATL ESTIMATES INDICATE 1-1.5" TOTAL AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN OVER MENARD/N KIMBLE/S CONCHO/NE SCHLEICHER COUNTIES WITH A MAX OF 1.7" BUT THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE THE STORMS HAVE BEEN STNRY. WEAK S/WV IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AND LOWEST CINH PER GOES SOUNDER APPEARS TO BE PRESENT RIGHT ALONG ITS MOVEMENT. SOME NEW CNVTN MAY EVENTUALLY DVLP S/SE OF THE CURRENT STORMS OR CELL DVLPMT MAY REMAIN NR THE W-E PORTION OF THE FRNTL BNDRY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Amazing ball of convection on the satellite loops. Too bad it's so far away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 What is the average high/low this time of year for College Station? That just sounds brutally anomalous for mid-April. I'm wonder if we'll see the heat in the Southern Plains continue into the summer given the dry soil/fire conditions, with that heat ridge eventually spreading to the rest of the country as it did in Summer 1988. I'm aware that was a first year Niña summer within the transition away from El Niño, and those tend to be much hotter nationally...but I'm still not buying the idea of a cold summer which is what the analogs suggest for the summer following a strong Niña. I think the extreme aridity over the Southern Plains could be telling us something about where the ridge will set up, with the Northern Tier staying cooler due to most of the hemisphere's cold air being over Canada in the -EPO pattern that's prevailed recently. Could be an interesting recipe for storms with the ridge over the S. Plains meeting that colder air in the Upper Midwest, might see a lot of cold pool severe events in the Mid-Atlantic like 2008 which had a bit of a similar pattern. i think it's around 80/56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 One of the more promising patterns we've seen in a very long time...if it verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Steve is psychic. Anyway, somewhere in Maryland, a highly paid professional is feeling glass half full optimism... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 New GFS comes this close to raining on my lawn Monday, but misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 Maybe some help for the fires in the Davis Mnts and S of Big Bend... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PECOS RIVER VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 211919Z - 212015Z STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE TX PECOS RIVER VALLEY. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT AND THE 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE WILL INCLUDE THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. WATER VAPOR TRENDS THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS ERN NM AND PARTS OF W TX. THIS IS EVIDENT IN WSM PROFILER TIME SERIES WITH FLOW INCREASING BY 20 KTS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS SINCE THIS MORNING. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...IMPLIED BY EWD MOVING BROKEN CIRRUS SHIELD...IS NOW SPREADING TOWARDS THE S PLAINS AND THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1MB/HR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS THE PAST FEW HOURS SEEMINGLY REFLECTIVE OF THE UPPER FEATURE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S DEWPOINTS HOLDING ACROSS THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY IN SWRN TX. STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE REGION...PREFERABLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN/ HAS ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED THE REMAINING CAP. AS SUCH...EXPECTING STORM INITIATION BY 20Z NEAR THE GLASS MTNS AND FST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LED TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /3500 J/KG MLCAPE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW UNDERNEATH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE AND RESULT IN STORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND BEING CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ONCE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS ATTAINED. ALTHOUGH ONLY ISOLD STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...THE NATURE OF THE THREAT MAY WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..SMITH.. 04/21/2011 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Golfball sized hail reported and the apperance of a hook and rotation with simple free NWS site radar on Terrell/Pecos tornado warned storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Congrats W TX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 HPC has come to their senses and forecasts almost no relief at all the next 5 days to the SE Texas portion of the drought area. GFS supports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 man, i really didn't realize how exceptionally warm this april has been. right now we've had 7 of the 21 days top out above 90F (avg high just hit 80F), and we're currently running a +7 temp deviation from avg for the month. we're on track to have the 2nd warmest april on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 If the trends continue, my fear is we may make a run on 1980 or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Fingers crossed for Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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