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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

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Not pretty...

Wind from the NNW (330 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT) gusting to 23 MPH (20 KT) Visibility 10 mile(s) Sky conditions clear Temperature 82.9 F (28.3 C) Dew Point 33.1 F (0.6 C) Relative Humidity 16% Pressure (altimeter) 29.96 in. Hg (1014 hPa) ob KDWH 112253Z 33009G20KT 10SM CLR 28/01 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP142 T02830006
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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Posted

Not to get too optimistic too early, but the Yurpian Community model suggests next Tuesday afternoon has some good drought easing and fun-derstorm potential. Hint of a negative tilt with the trough, and not super mondo hell cap of forged steel inhibiting convection.

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011041200!!chart.gif

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011041200!!chart.gif

Edit to add- AccuWx PPV skew-T, LFC looks just below 700 mb level, but LCL looks around 900 mb. Winds below 800 mb fairly strong but nearly unidirectional from the South, but in the fat part of the 'CAPE' curve, winds shift from SSW at 50 knots at 700 mb to almost due West at 60 knots at 400 mb level, which seems a positive for at least mid level rotation. About 1.5 inches PW, and Euro shows about an inch of rain after the storms arrive.

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Srain

Srain

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0133 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE TX...ERN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141833Z - 142100Z

EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS

ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE BEGINNING IN 20-22Z TIME FRAME...COVERAGE

INCREASING THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD

TO NEWD. DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY...SOME EXCEEDING 3 INCHES

DIAMETER. THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR TORNADOES AS TSTMS MATURE AND

MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/HIGH-SRH AIR MASS...WITH TIME AND

EWD EXTENT.

18Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE JUST E OF US-81 CORRIDOR IN OK

THEN SWWD ACROSS JACK COUNTY TX...WHERE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES

CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CU. DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX/ADVECT EWD

ACROSS I-35 FROM PVJ AREA NWD...BEFORE DECELERATING AROUND 23Z. TX

DRYLINE SEGMENT SHOULD MOVE EWD TO JUST W OF DFW METROPLEX...NEAR

PRESENT LOCATION OF CONFLUENCE LINE THAT EXTENDS NNEWD FROM HILL

COUNTRY. DRYLINE MAY SHARPEN FURTHER...GIVEN COMBINATION OF

1. CONTINUING MOST ADVECTION TO ITS E...

2. BACKING 850-MB WINDS EVIDENT PAST COUPLE HOURS IN CENTRAL OK

VWP/PROFILER DATA...AND

3. GEOMETRY OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER KS/OK THAT MAY KEEP SLGT ELY

COMPONENT TO SFC FLOW IN MOIST SECTOR IN CORRIDOR FROM OSAGE COUNTY

SWD TO DUA AREA THROUGH 00Z.

EXPECT CONTINUED STG SFC HEATING...DEW POINTS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S

F IN NRN OK TO MID 60S FROM ADM-ATOKA AREA SWD ACROSS RED

RIVER...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO

2000-3000 J/KG RANGE OVER PORTIONS N TX AND SERN OK BASED ON

MODIFIED 18Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...AND 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR OK/KS BORDER.

MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN...AS ALREADY EVIDENT

WITH LOWERING OF 50-KT MIDLEVEL ISOTACH AT TCU PROFILER. EFFECTIVE

SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO 50-60 KT. HODOGRAPH SIZE...NOW INDICATING

SOME WEAKNESSES AROUND 1-3 KM AGL...WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING

LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER ERN OK...BECOMING POTENTIALLY

FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PRODUCTION. STG ORTHOGONAL

COMPONENT OF MEAN WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS...RELATIVE TO

DRYLINE...INDICATES STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AT LEAST A FEW

HOURS AFTER INITIATION. COVERAGE SWD INTO CENTRAL TX SHOULD BE MORE

ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL.

SRN END OF KS CONVECTIVE ARC REGIME -- SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 424

FOR DETAILS -- MAY BACKBUILD INTO PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN OK AFTER

ABOUT 21Z AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/14/2011

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

post-32-0-88556900-1302806424.gif

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

we may never see this kind of thing around here ever again :(

post-91-0-67246300-1302816259.gif

Oh, I think in July or August when the ridge axis gets far enough North we'll get surges of enhanced precipitable water from the East every third day or fifth day, the Northern end of Easterly waves, which will tend to interact with sea and bay breeze convergence boundaries to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms.

And Hurricane Dolly, huge miss to the South, rained on my house.

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msp

msp

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some of the obs to the west are crazy too. lots of single digit tds... wonder if that winston reading of 73/-8 a couple hours ago was accurate. that's a 3.7% RH if true.

still incredible to me that we went from 73/69 to 81/9 here in ten hours

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Srain

Srain

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Certainly as dry as I've seen it in sometime. DW Hooks last hour:

Wind from the NW (310 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 KT) gusting to 28 MPH (24 KT) Visibility 10 mile(s) Sky conditions clear Temperature 80.1 F (26.7 C) Dew Point 17.1 F (-8.3 C) Relative Humidity 9% Pressure (altimeter) 29.86 in. Hg (1011 hPa) ob KDWH 152253Z 31012G24KT 10SM CLR 27/M08 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 32030/2226 SLP108 T02671083

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Srain

Srain

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SPC concerning tomorrow...

FARTHER SOUTH...VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS TX WILL

REMOVE THE CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM DFW...SWWD TOWARD AUS. IT/S

NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY

BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL DO SO WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE

AIRMASS AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL

DEVELOPMENT AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF IT

BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO CNTRL TX THEN A

SLIGHT RISK WILL BE EXTENDED SWWD TO INCLUDE THIS SCENARIO.

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