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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Bust brewing?

000

FXUS64 KFWD 090341

AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

941 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.UPDATE...

THE COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE

CURRENT POSITION NEAR A FORT STOCKTON...ABILENE...WICHITA FALLS

LINE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH

TEXAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WILL UPDATE THE TEMPERATURE...DEW

POINT AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE FASTER FRONT. THESE CHANGES WILL

ALSO SPILL OVER INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING GRIDS WITH COLDER DAYTIME

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

VERY IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG

AND GUSTY WINDS. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST

HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS

ON WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL BELOW CRITERIA IN ALL ZONES

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND

WESTERN OKLAHOMA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WE EXPECT

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD IN THE NEXT

COUPLE OF HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NAM AND GFS BOTH

SHOWING STRONG/MOIST ASSENT ON THE 290K SURFACE. AM HAVING A BIT

OF CONCERN ABOUT THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE

POSSIBILITY OF MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SHUTTING

DOWN PRECIP QUICKLY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE

STILL SUPPORTS SOME QPF ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SO FOR NOW

WE WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN PLACE.

79

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Srain

Srain

Posted
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Posted

HGX extends WWA a bit further S and E...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1005 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM

WEDNESDAY...

.STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

SLEET.

TXZ178-179-199-091215-

/O.EXA.KHGX.WW.Y.0001.110209T1600Z-110209T2300Z/

MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLDSPRING...CONROE...CORRIGAN...

LIVINGSTON...ONALASKA...SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...WILLIS

1005 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN...WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW

FREEZING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ANY LINGERING

PRECIPITATION COULD FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. THIS

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS

DRIER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE

ENDING...STANDING PUDDLES WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO

FREEZE...MAINLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES. MOTORISTS SHOULD

USE CAUTION IF DRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN

NORTH AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTY.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THIS UPCOMING WEATHER

EVENT WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME COVERED

WITH A THIN LAYER OF PATCHY ICE MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Last ob is just insane anywhere--let alone Amarillo, Texas.

KAMA 090318Z 36033G41KT 1/8SM R04/2600V3500FT +SN BLSN BR VV003 M18/M20 A3020 RMK AO2 PK WND 36041/0317 P0002 $

I was just mentioning it in the SNE thread....that's how insane it is. I don't care where you are, the conditions the TX Panhandle is getting right now are about the worst you can have.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

I was just mentioning it in the SNE thread....that's how insane it is. I don't care where you are, the conditions the TX Panhandle is getting right now are about the worst you can have.

Wind let up a bit but the vis dropped down to the rare 1/16 SM. Typically observers usually are a tad high compared to ASOS vis sensor--so 1/16 at a manned ASOS is amazing.

KAMA 090420Z 36019G26KT 1/16SM R04/5000V5500FT +SN BLSN BR VV004 M18/M20 A3021 RMK AO2 PK WND 36033/0400 P0002 $

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

incredible, esp. considering how cold the temps are. precip and FROPA bumped up here too. should be below freezing by noon or so. precip should be done by then too. the question is which of those happens first.

would be cool to see frozen precip twice in a week here.

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TXWXCHX

TXWXCHX

Posted
Posted

Last ob is just insane anywhere--let alone Amarillo, Texas.

KAMA 090318Z 36033G41KT 1/8SM R04/2600V3500FT +SN BLSN BR VV003 M18/M20 A3020 RMK AO2 PK WND 36041/0317 P0002 $

:o Amazing... the ferocity of this storm has been underestimated. 2-3 degrees below zero tonight, I believe that is at least 10 degrees colder than forecast. It's still 50 degrees here, but the wind has been really whipping around today, gusting to 30MPH currently from the ESE. Humidity has risen from 31% to 52% here in the last 6 hours; we shall see how that translates for frozen precipitation.

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OHSnow

OHSnow

Posted
Posted

Wow, I can't believe there are no blizzard warnings for Amarillo. The current ob there shows 1/16 mi. visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow, with a temp. of -1, winds at 28 mph gusting to 35 and a wind chill of -26. That would actually qualify as a severe blizzard -- makes the blizzard warnings usually issued in the northeast look silly.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

Wow, I can't believe there are no blizzard warnings for Amarillo. The current ob there shows 1/16 mi. visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow, with a temp. of -1, winds at 28 mph gusting to 35 and a wind chill of -26. That would actually qualify as a severe blizzard -- makes the blizzard warnings usually issued in the northeast look silly.

KAMA 090529Z 35024G31KT 1/16SM R04/4000V4500FT +SN BLSN BR VV004 M19/M21

A3023

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

KAMA has already verified blizzard...here's past 3 hours (intermediate obs obviously also int here)

KAMA 090529Z 35024G31KT 1/16SM R04/4000V4500FT +SN BLSN BR VV004 M19/M21 A3023 RMK AO2 PK WND 35032/0513 P0001 $

KAMA 090516Z 35024G32KT 1/8SM R04/4500V5500FT +SN BLSN BR VV005 M19/M21 A3022 RMK AO2 PK WND 35032/0513 P0001 $

KAMA 090453Z COR 35024G30KT 1/16SM +SN BLSN BR VV004 M18/M20 A3023 RMK AO2 PK WND 36033/0400 PRESRR SLP291 P0003 T11831200 $

KAMA 090420Z 36019G26KT 1/16SM R04/5000V5500FT +SN BLSN BR VV004 M18/M20 A3021 RMK AO2 PK WND 36033/0400 P0002 $

KAMA 090353Z 36026G34KT 1/16SM R04/3000V4500FT +SN BLSN BR VV003 M18/M20 A3020 RMK AO2 PK WND 36041/0317 SLP273 P0003 T11831200 $

KAMA 090318Z 36033G41KT 1/8SM R04/2600V3500FT +SN BLSN BR VV003 M18/M20 A3020 RMK AO2 PK WND 36041/0317 P0002 $

KAMA 090315Z 36032G41KT 1/4SM R04/2600V3500FT +SN BLSN BR VV004 M18/M20 A3021 RMK AO2 PK WND 36041/0314 P0002 $

KAMA 090253Z 35028G41KT 1/4SM R04/2600V3500FT +SN BLSN BR VV005 M18/M20 A3019 RMK AO2 PK WND 35041/0247 SLP267 P0001 60001 T11831200 51029 $

Just sick. That is a true old school blizzard too when they had the temperature requirement.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

KAMA 090606Z 35020KT 0SM R04/3500V4500FT +SN BLSN BR VV003 M19/M21 A3024

Even though I get a crap load more snow than there....that puts any blizzard here to shame. Temps below 0 with heavy snow...those are conditions that you would die in fairly quickly if stuck outside unprepared. Not the 15F or 20F heavy snow you see so often in other blizzards.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Even though I get a crap load more snow than there....that puts any blizzard here to shame. Temps below 0 with heavy snow...those are conditions that you would die in fairly quickly if stuck outside unprepared. Not the 15F or 20F heavy snow you see so often in other blizzards.

Reminds me of the good ole North Dakota blizzards. We had one that lasted a total of 24 hours straight with blizzard conditions, temps 10 below, and winds 50+ for much of the event and Univ. of North Dakota still didn't close. They are obsessed with staying open regardless of weather. It is like they take pride in it.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
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Posted

HGX issues Winter Weather Advisory for all of WFO except for Galveston/Chambers Counties...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

522 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY...

.STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE

WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TXZ200-213-226-227-235>237-100000-

/O.EXB.KHGX.WW.Y.0001.110209T1800Z-110210T0000Z/

BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...

CLEVELAND...DAYTON...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...HOUSTON...

HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...

PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...

SUGAR LAND...TOMBALL...WHARTON

522 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST

THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS

MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL TO BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY

AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL

LIKELY FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS

FOR ICE TO FORM...MAINLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS INCLUDING BRIDGES

AND OVERPASSES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S.

ACCOMPANYING THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORTH WINDS GUSTING

BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. THIS WIND AND TEMPERATURE COMBINATION WILL

CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. SOME LOCATIONS

MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

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