atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 the 12z euro run is a lot faster/weaker with the northern stream energy. Which causes deamplification and less digging and pulling back of the baroclini zone which is why is scoots out to sea. While the 0z had a slower more potent northern stream wave that allowed it dig deeper into the gom, and pull the baroclinic zone closer to the coast Thanks for the clarification...do not have the 6 hr maps yet ..just the text! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Apparently the ECM has lost this system... or sends it OTS... It amps the 1st system pretty tightly. 1004 around box, then goes just east of the bm. Trailing shortwave (which was our big storm) acts as a kicker to the 1st storm. Kinda strung out. Some system shows up around April 2nd, but it looks more like the sytstem that passed our area earlier last week. The 1st storm on the euro looks half decent. Prob too warm for coastal areas verbatim though. It comes at night though. Posting from my iPhone, so sorry for the lack of further detail. Bout .5" up to Scranton. .75 starts at bucks county. Central Md- to delaware are jackpot qpf wise, rain, with 1.25" tight gradient between bucks and these points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Big time changes with the 18 Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Nothing like 6 to 12 in April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 That thing is a beast and still showing up on guidance. Nice deformation band btw...ftw!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 stormvista snow maps have 12-18 from center city to about ttn...with 8-12 from claymont del northeast to albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 It was 75 last Friday and I took out the patio furniture. Now, we could see the 3rd or 4th snow since that time by next weekend. I love snow and I will root for a late season surprise, but man I am ready for warmer temps and dinners outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 if the 18z gfs comes true its a ray martin hybrid prius car crushing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 18 Z GFS means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dankil13 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 if the 18z gfs comes true its a ray martin hybrid prius car crushing snow. When is the 18z ever correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 When is the 18z ever correct? never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Anyway we get get a title change? Or at least date the thread? It's a bit confusing with the 3-30 thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I would say to answer that question if the 18 Z GFS agrees with the prior 00z ECM or is pretty darn close to it a better chance of verifying... Considering the ECM means...i think 00z ECM is going to go back to a solution similar to last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Could still be warming issues closer to the coast. inland areas should be good for an elevation snow but how much QPF will be back that far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Anyway we get get a title change? Or at least date the thread? It's a bit confusing with the 3-30 thread. It has this as the title 12 Z GFS signals power house storm April 1-2nd period.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 It has this as the title 12 Z GFS signals power house storm April 1-2nd period.... Hmm.. MAybe it's my iPhone/ safari browser. Only says "12z gfs shows powerhouse storm".... Thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Hmm.. MAybe it's my iPhone/ safari browser. Only says "12z gfs shows powerhouse storm".... Thanks for clarifying. Yeah ...the title is actually the first part and then the subtitle is April 1-2nd period... Perhaps its not picking up on the subtitle.... trust me its there though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Snow or not, if a decent noreaster verifies, the GFS would have sniffed it out well in its long range. The signal for a big storm has been hinted at for 5 says already. Usually the biggies show up on the models like this in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 if the 18z gfs comes true its a ray martin hybrid prius car crushing snow. Considering the ECM means...i think 00z ECM is going to go back to a solution similar to last night... I tend to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 stormvista snow maps have 12-18 from center city to about ttn...with 8-12 from claymont del northeast to albany I imagine this would be the latest in the season that Ray needed to buy a plane ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 stormvista snow maps have 12-18 from center city to about ttn...with 8-12 from claymont del northeast to albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Big time changes with the 18 Z GFS... :axe: Looks way too familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 lol, you are quite the character. My two cents tell me that it's going to be a very cold rainstorm for everyone. If isn't too dry, it's too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 :axe: Looks way too familiar. Let 'em have it. The last thing I want going into April is a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 lol, you are quite the character. My two cents tell me that it's going to be a very cold rainstorm for everyone. If isn't too dry, it's too warm. My two cents don't.. if the 850s remain cold and we get good dynamics from a bombing storm off the coast, there will likely be some snow except for the immediate coastline. Now the solution could change many times and we could still get an unfavorable for snow scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 My two cents don't.. if the 850s remain cold and we get good dynamics from a bombing storm off the coast, there will likely be some snow except for the immediate coastline. Now the solution could change many times and we could still get an unfavorable for snow scenario. Perhaps a wet snow for the highest elevations that doesn't really amount to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Perhaps a wet snow for the highest elevations that doesn't really amount to anything. Yeah I doubt the second storm is snow with the NAO going + after the first storm...but we'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yeah I doubt the second storm is snow with the NAO going + after the first storm...but we'll see I guess. That's my biggest concern with this scenario. The two big April KU's in the last 60 years, April 1982 and April 1997, were during a positive-to-negative NAO transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 BTW, I agree with changing this thread's name to something along the lines of "April 2-3 threat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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