wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Its gonna be close for i-90 (imby), heres the 0z nam qpf..Surface temps stay in the 20s during the duration of the evnt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The NWS surface map showing a 989 LP? Are the models not strong enough? RUC 3hr presure tendency are strongest in NE Iowa? Is this thing going further N thank progged? News at 11... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Check out the simulated radar maps and you can see that the model gets the leading edge of the decent snow from about you to me (or not quite to us) and holds it there all day long, before steady snow resumes its push. So we shall see if that is correct. Its gonna be close for i-90 (imby), heres the 0z nam qpf..Surface temps stay in the 20s during the duration of the evnt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 what is wrong with the GFS. Why hasn't it posted yet. Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 0z gfs qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 try qpf for gfs thru 36 hours.. looks WAY different. 1+ qpf for all of western NY and points ESE to NEPA and lower hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 FWIW 0z gfs clownmap http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 0z Euro a little more south and drier FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Cobb weather soundings say 14 inches for kbuf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Another detailed write-up from BGM. All in all, still a pretty aggressive stance mentioning the possibility of thundersnow from late Morning thru the Afternoon hours in parts of C NY, with widespread 6-10" across warned zones and the possibility of a localized band of 10-14 from the southern Finger Lakes to the southern Catskills... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 203 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE NWS BINGHAMTON FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW ACRS THE NRN PLAINS WITH ANTHR UPR LVL LOW ACRS ERN CANADA. THERE WAS A STRG DEFORMATION ZONE AND ASSCTD LOW-MID LVL FRONTAL SURFACE BTWN THESE TWO UPR LVL LOWS FROM MINN SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU PA AND NY. THERE WAS A LOW-LVL JET IN ADVANCE OF A THIS UPR LVL LO WHICH WAS INJECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THIS FGEN/DEFORMATION ZONE. HENCE A SWATH OF PRECIP EXISTS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SE TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE 00Z CMC/NAM AND GFS ALL TRACK THE UPR LVL LO AND ASSCTD SFC LO EASTWARD TODAY. THE UPR LVL LOW WILL INCREASE UPR CONFLUENCE FROM SERN CANADA THRU MAINE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. THIS WILL CONT TO ENHANCE A THERMALLY DIRECT AGEO CIRC AND ASSCTD LL FGEN FRCG FOR THE AM AND ERLY PM HOURS INTO NY/PA. BELIEVE THE SWATH OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WORK NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. SNOW WAS ALREADY FALLING IN MOST OF NE PA...INCLUDING AVP. SNOW WILL REACH BGM-ITH 9-10Z...SYR 13-14Z AND UCA/RME 14Z-15Z. A CROSS SECTION NORMAL TO THE MID-LVL ISOTHERMS SHOWS A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW SIGNATURE WITH A SLOPED FGEN LAYER AND NEG EPV ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRNTL SFC ACRS C NY/NE PA BY 18Z TODAY. A LOOK AT THE MOIST THETA-E SFC/S SUGGEST MAINLY CSI WITH A FEW POCKETS OF CI AT TIMES ABV THIS FGEN LAYER. BANDING ALREADY APPARENT IN WRN NY AND THIS WILL CONT THRU AM HOURS AS THIS FGEN FRCG MAXIMIZES AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO C NY. IN ADDTN...LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE WAS LIGHTNING ALL THE WAY N INTO NRN LWR MI. SO WUDN/T BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATER THIS AM AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES CUD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE BEGINNING B4 SUNRISE IN NE PA AND CONTINUING FARTHER N INTO C NY LATER IN THE AM AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE UPR LVL LO AND ASSCTD SFC LO MAKES IT WAY TO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...LIFTG WILL ALSO INCREASE AS STRG UPR LVL PV ADVECTION OCCURS OVR NY AND PA. THE EFFECT OF THIS ADVTN WILL BE TO LIFT THE ISENTROPES IN THE MID-LAYERS OF THE AMS FURTHER ENHANCING ASCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE FGEN FRCG GETS LESS ORGANIZED. THE LIFTING ASSCTD WITH THIS TRAVELLING PV MAX AND ASSCT PV ADVECTION WILL WANE AFTER 00Z THU. AFTER THIS PV MAX WORKS THRU THIS EVENING...A MID LVL FRNT WILL SWING DOWN THRU THE REGION AND FORCE ADDTNL ASCENT BTWN 6 AND 12Z THU. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE WANING BY THIS TIME SO I DON/T EXPECT HEAVY SNOW WILL THIS FEATURE JUST A CONTINUATION OF LIGHTER SNOWS LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING. WHAT THIS BOILS DOWN TO...I SEE THE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUING TO SPREAD N AND E AND IT WILL LEAD TO SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES IN BANDING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD ACRS ALL OF C NY THIS AM. BELIEVE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR NE PA THIS MORNING AS WARMER AIR LIKELY WILL SNEAK IN ALOFT AS PER GFS AND NAM WITH AN ABV 0C LAYER REACHG ACRS NRN PA FROM ROUGHLY BFD-AVP BTWN 18Z WED AND 00Z THU. THIS WUD OCCUR WHEN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS AS THE UPR LVL WAVE APPRCHES. THUS HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN C NY FROM THE MID-LATE MORNING HORUS INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN SLEET MIXES IN FOR NE PA. THEN BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z THU BELIEVE SNOWFALL RATES WILL DIMINISH SOME AS THE PV GRADIENT AND ASSCTD ADVECTIONS MOVE E OF THE REGION. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONT IN ASSCTD WITH THE ABV MENTIONED MID-LVL FRNT WORKING SOUTHWARD 06Z TO 12Z THU. AS FOR SNOW TOTALS...MOST AREAS IN C NY AND FAR NRN PA WILL SEE 6-10 INCHES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 10-14 INCHES BUT IT IS HARD TO PLACE AT THIS TIME...SINCE IT WILL BE FORCED ON THE MESOSCALE. CURRENT THINKING IS FROM THE SRN FINGER LAKES E-SE TO SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES. IN NE PA BELIEVE SLEET WILL HOLD DOWN SNOW AMNTS IN THE 5-9 INCH RANGE. AGAIN THIS SNOW CUD COME DOWN HARD THIS MORNING SO IMPACTS CUD BE HIGH THERE THIS AM IN ANY EVENT. SO WHAT TO DO...LIKELY WILL EXTEND WINTER WARNING A LITTLE FARTHER N IN CWA FROM OTSEGO CO TO YATES CO AND WILL HOIST A WINTER WX ADVY FARTHER N ACRS ALL OF NC NY. WILL MAKE FINAL DECISION ON THIS BEFORE 4 AM AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 0z GFS/NAM/NMM/ARW drop 1-1.25 qpf of all snow on WNY i think we're going to hit warning criteria snows... GFS/NAM bled is 11 inches and the radar looks fantastic right now. moderate snow falling, sticking on all surfaces. 28.6 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Plenty of Warning upgrades from Buffalo, Albany, and Binghamton... Updated BGM forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 yep. buffalo did a complete upgrade. 4-8 in buffalo, 6-12 places just south. I still think were gonna hit 6-12 as well up here. radar looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 KBGM has put out wwa for NC NY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU...UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GREATER SYRACUSE AREA. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY WILL HAMPER TRAVEL THROUGH TONIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Must be some pretty dry air to overcome as the "green" radar returns are just getting here in Delhi and nothing is falling yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nearpass Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Must be some pretty dry air to overcome as the "green" radar returns are just getting here in Delhi and nothing is falling yet. Yeah...those 'green' returns have been over us for quite a while now, and there's nothing here at all. In fact, the back end of this band will soon be here, and there's narry a flake yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Snowing lightly @30F. (edit: +10 minutes, already a coating...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah...those 'green' returns have been over us for quite a while now, and there's nothing here at all. In fact, the back end of this band will soon be here, and there's narry a flake yet. Same here looking more like a bust IMO unless something blows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Radar is looking weak now...if something doesn't fill in soon, this will be a bit of a bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderqueen Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think this storm is a bust. We got 3" south of Ithaca and maybe 2" in Ithaca. 6-10"...I don't think so A dry slot moved through...we'll see what the remainder of the storm will do. I'd be surprised to see more than 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Over 6 inches already in Buffalo. In the southern portion of our viewing area there is already 8-9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderqueen Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 For Buffalo, the lake helps add moisture...by the time it gets to CNY it isn't as wet...we also just had a dry slot, but snow has resumed. I just looked outside here in Ithaca and there is about 1". I'll be heading to the hills around 5pm to about 1800' so I will know later if we are going to get what is in the forecast. I won't believe it until I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Erie cty. seems to be the winner for this round: ...ERIE COUNTY... GLENWOOD 7.0 800 AM 3/23 COCORAHS COLDEN 6.7 730 AM 3/23 SPOTTER COLDEN 6.5 620 AM 3/23 SPOTTER BUFFALO SE 4.9 700 AM 3/23 SPOTTER BLASDELL 4.7 700 AM 3/23 SPOTTER WEST SENECA 4.7 700 AM 3/23 SPOTTER ELMA 4.2 700 AM 3/23 NWS EMPLOYEE WEST SENECA 4.1 600 AM 3/23 SPOTTER AMHERST 3.2 700 AM 3/23 SPOTTER KENMORE 3.1 615 AM 3/23 SPOTTER WILLIAMSVILLE 2.7 700 AM 3/23 NWS EMPLOYEE CLARENCE 2.0 700 AM 3/23 SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 ...ALLEGANY COUNTY... WELLSVILLE 9.0 800 AM 3/23 WEST ALMOND 8.8 810 AM 3/23 WHITESVILLE 8.8 800 AM 3/23 ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... FRANKLINVILLE 9.0 800 AM 3/23 HINSDALE 8.0 800 AM 3/23 COCORAHS OLEAN 8.0 700 AM 3/23 COCORAHS ALLEGANY 7.5 800 AM 3/23 COCORAHS PERRYSBURG 6.0 511 AM 3/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Nothing here yet. DP is only 15 so it'll take a bit to get some flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 That front-end dump was pretty impressive with quite the cut-off on the northern side. KROC has only a trace still!! The grass isn't even covered yet. Looks like the returns are filling in to the west as the LP approaches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The dry air is not being kind....DP is 13 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Holiday Valley ski resort reporting 10 inches of snow already. http://www.holidayvalley.com/HolidayValley/mtn-cams.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nearpass Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Been snowing lightly here in Geneva all morning, but we're just getting to the point where the grass is almost covered, maybe an inch has stuck. Roads are clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Very very very light snow has just started here. 11am temp in Albany is 28 and the dew point is 14... so we have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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