MikeS Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I feel terrible for those people who lives on the other side of Wayne, LP, and Little Falls.. its pretty bad right now and it's only going to get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Latest 3 day total from HPC. I suspect some of the river forecasts will be coming out later today. Hopefully they are not as bad as they were for the last event. While the rain was coming down, the river was forecast to crest at 14.4'. The river wound up cresting at 20.32'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Euro has 1.36" of rain for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Euro has 1.36" of rain for NYC. The GFS has been much more consistent than the EC....and who cares about NYC. It would take a landfalling Hurricane to cause major flooding problems. The city probably won't even be included in the watch when Upton puts it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The GFS has been much more consistent than the EC. Not arguing. Just pointing out euro soundings, which most dont have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Euro has 1.36" of rain for NYC. Where is the QPF max on the Euro and how much is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Where is the QPF max on the Euro and how much is it? central PA "jackpot"..Using NYC, more west, less east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 central PA "jackpot"..Using NYC, more west, less east Thanks,it looks like the Euro closes off the H5 low sooner so it tracks it surface low further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Thanks,it looks like the Euro closes off the H5 low sooner so it tracks it surface low further west. yup, exactly. Just like the ggem, the trough goes neg faster so everything gets pushed west. Dont know if its right tho, the last event shifted east the day before so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 SREF JP'S the most flood prone area with a maxima of 2" just west of NYC to far eastern PA. It aIso has a large area of 2.5" maxima over eastern PA and western NJ. This is very scary for a low res mean. t's also in pretty good agreement with the GFS and NAM and nailed the prior event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Any winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 New NAM continues to JP NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 New NAM continues to JP NJ. yeah, bad sign with the nam being so consistent and sref supporting it, qpf max right over the areas that have already flooded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Quite bullish forecast. Undercutting latest HPC slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 You guys think this is the type of set up where with watch most of the rain fall to the west of us on thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 You guys think this is the type of set up where with watch most of the rain fall to the west of us on thursday? Guidance continues to project the heaviest rains will be west of NYC but suspect we;re looking at an area-wide soaker with 2 - 4 inch amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 OKX just issued FF Watches for inland areas. NYC and LI are not included, no big rivers or streams to flood in those parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 421 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL HEADED THIS WAY... .A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-091000- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0004.110310T1500Z-110311T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD- SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON- WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX- WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 421 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD... NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM... ROCKLAND AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER. * FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. * DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE AT HIGH LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOIL WILL RESULT IN HIGH RUNOFF RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 18Z GFS has gone back to a less progressive solution. Either way, the final solution is not much different in terms of total QPF from the rest of the pack. Generally 1.50" and less from the city on eastward. 1.50"-2.00" for the immediate western burbs. A large area of 2.0-3.0" totals from basically west of the GS Parkway into PA. NW NJ and NE PA are JP zone with 3.00" +. The totals are actually very close to Upton's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 No matter how you cut or slice it, a 2-4" rainfall is likely for the NYC metro area, there are still going to be some variations on the models on where the heaviest rain amounts will be. Urban, stream, and river flooding is looking like a major concern now. 18Z GFS has gone back to a less progressive solution. Either way, the final solution is not much different in terms of total QPF from the rest of the pack. Generally 1.50" and less from the city on eastward. 1.50"-2.00" for the immediate western burbs. A large area of 2.0-3.0" totals from basically west of the GS Parkway into PA. NW NJ and NE PA are JP zone with 3.00" +. The totals are actually very close to Upton's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 No matter how you cut or slice it, a 2-4" rainfall is likely for the NYC metro area, there are still going to be some variations on the models on where the heaviest rain amounts will be. Urban, stream, and river flooding is looking like a major concern now. I agree with those totals. This is shaping up to be trouble for those same areas that were flooded last year. Hopefully we can get into a warmer and drier pattern beyond this Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I can only speak for my river, but last March, we hit #2 all time after the Noreaster which gave as ~ 4" of rain. The main culprit was not only because of the heavy amounts of rain but also because of runoff from snowmelt in the higher terrain. OEM told us beforehand they estimated that the snowpack was still holding ~9 of water in areas like West Milford and that the reservoirs were near full. Going into that event however, the Pompton river and most other parts of the Passaic river basin were near normal to slightly above normal levels. About ten days or so after that, we got another ~2.5" rainfall system and we hit moderate flood stage. The Passaic river took the brunt of that system. T lol.not even close to 9 inches of liquid lol. it was 3-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Rain through 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 lol.not even close to 9 inches of liquid lol. it was 3-4 inches Those estimates were from OEM and forwarded by our Chief. Please don't give out info just based on your hunch or estimate when you have no clue what your talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 New SREF's are consistent with prior runs. The NAM, GFS and SREF are all in excellent agreement on keeping the heaviest QPF in an area from NE PA eastward to the western burbs of NYC. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 New NAM just crushes the flood watch area, very good agreement between the GFS, NAM and SREF. 3-4" bullseye right over northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 WOW, the NAM gives northern/central NJ 3-4 inches. Major flooding for those areas if it were to verify: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Those estimates were from OEM and forwarded by our Chief. Please don't give out info just based on your hunch or estimate when you have no clue what your talking about. How could most places have had 9" of liquid in their snowpack? There wasn't even any snow on the ground here at 400' in Westchester before the 2/25 Snowicane; sure, that storm dumped like 3" liquid in many areas, some of which had previous snowpack, but 9" seems to be pushing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Those estimates were from OEM and forwarded by our Chief. Please don't give out info just based on your hunch or estimate when you have no clue what your talking about. Check out this modeled SWE product from NOHRSC from March 9 2010. If my eyes are reading the colors correctly, it shows widespread 2"-4" SWEs, with some localized areas of 4"-6". I think 9" is pushing it, but 3"-6" is nothing to scoff at, especially with the 4"-5"+ of rain that then fell with the mid-March storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Some aresa in NJ, Upstate NY and New England may experience historic flooding from this. Central VT and NW NJ are especially prone due to previous heavy rain and or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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