Reed Stough Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Those maps look UGLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Of interest The last image is 0-1km Images from www.wright-weather.com used with permission What is up with the 2 hr increments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What is up with the 2 hr increments? Some are 1 hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Some are 1 hour? Looks like the hi-res WRF-NMM, so it must be. I didn't know it was available in 1 hr chunks from NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 There is some guy named baroclinicity perusing the thread. I like him already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Of interest The last image is 0-1km Images from www.wright-weather.com used with permission Looks like the hi-res WRF-NMM, so it must be. I didn't know it was available in 1 hr chunks from NCEP. Beau gets those maps from Wright-Weather.com, a pay service. And for unrelated but nostalgic reasons, a few of ours former home with respect to weather forums back in the early 2000's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Beau gets those maps from Wright-Weather.com, a pay service. And for unrelated but nostalgic reasons, a few of ours former home with respect to weather forums back in the early 2000's. Ah ok. I didn't know it was a pay service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Beau gets those maps from Wright-Weather.com, a pay service. And for unrelated but nostalgic reasons, a few of ours former home with respect to weather forums back in the early 2000's. Those were the days...good thing we have the Wright-Weather throwback skin to send us into the time warp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Those were the days...good thing we have the Wright-Weather throwback skin to send us into the time warp! No doubt...good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 So with the new 00z NAM/GFS guidance out, what does everyone think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SLP looks a shade more north and deeper at 999mb. not much change overall. Experts care to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Has updated http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ Interesting. Some morning storms, some afternoon storms with the warm front, and then an evening squall line looking thing with the cold front for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Using the NAM helicity is still off the charts, CAPE is 500-750, dews in 60's....for 00z Friday...still think as Beau indicated Jackson west to Memphis area and eastern Arkansas look prime. Nice line of storms moving northward at 11 p.m. CST through Arkansas and west TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think Jackson, TN is an okay target point - somewhere from that center point to 35-40 miles either side seems to be a good bet for tornadoes. Instability prob won't be known until nowcast time - within 6-12 hours of event. Tough call for KY/TN border. Yeah it's not like Jackson ever gets hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah it's not like Jackson ever gets hit They usually get a F4 or EF4 every 3-5 years, so they are due up to bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Being on the KY/TN border I'm cautiously optimistic about seeing some severe weather. I would love to see tornado since my birthday was yesterday. Will be interesting to see if the instability can make it up here. 51/39 here right now, going to be fun to watch the temperatures rise tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I know this is Tennessee-centric, but I think it worth posting here anyway. OK, this is my first call--I may make another. The dark red indicates highest risk for severe, the light red indicates a heightened likelihood of severe, and the orange indicates a conditional risk for severe: Discussion I am using the WRF-NMM, the SREF, and forecast products by the NWS as guidance for my forecast. Guidance indicates a surface low forming in Oklahoma and deepening as it moves northeast toward southeast Missouri during the day on Thursday. There will be warm air advection across the risk area tomorrow, bringing in ample moisture. There will be a mid-level jet streak near 100 kt and a low-level jet stream over 60 kt, creating strong deep layer shear. There will be a shortwave to the west that will be bring cooler air into the upper atmosphere, helping to destabilize it. Low level winds will back ahead of the storms, creating heightened low-level helicity. There will be ongoing precipitation across the area during the morning and early afternoon, but it will affect the northern and eastern areas most. The WRF-NMM shows multiple rounds of thunderstorms forming across Arkansas and the Mid-South during the day tomorrow. The SREF shows heightened SIGTOR tomorrow >= 2, with the SIGTOR's as high as 2 inching into extreme southwest Tennessee and extreme northwest Mississippi during the early evening. Because of this, the threat is highest during the afternoon in central and southern Arkansas where the daytime heating will be maximized. A lesser threat fingers east into the Memphis metro, with the condition that if there are gaps in the clouds, one or more of the multiple rounds of thunderstorms might be severe. Finally, the system should be weakening as it moves east, but if there are breaks in the cloud cover and storms can form, then those areas would have problems, too. Any comments or criticisms welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 One area that might sneak up on people early on is back in OK. Storms will probably initiate early at around 18z or so in eastern OK near the intensifying surface low. This is also in a region of very steep lapse rates associated with the cold pool aloft, resulting in a local maximum of CAPE. Low-level helicity should be very high with the backing of the surface winds and intensifying low-level jet. These will probably be more mini-supercellular in structure given the intense shear. It'll be interesting to see how much clearing there'll be over much of the warm sector tomorrow. The forecasted RH fields in the mid-levels from the NAM, GFS, and RUC (especially) suggest some clearing most likely in the southeastern half of AR, northern MS, and perhaps into SW TN. The 00z 4km WRF run keeps these areas pretty clean through 22z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 One area that might sneak up on people early on is back in OK. Storms will probably initiate early at around 18z or so in eastern OK near the intensifying surface low. This is also in a region of very steep lapse rates associated with the cold pool aloft, resulting in a local maximum of CAPE. Low-level helicity should be very high with the backing of the surface winds and intensifying low-level jet. These will probably be more mini-supercellular in structure given the intense shear. yeah I was watching that as well, the warm sector is expanded farther north on both the GFS/NAM 00z runs across OK when compared to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST WED FEB 23 2011 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN AR WRN TN...SMALL PART OF SERN MO...NRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LWR OH VLY...LWR MS VLY...MID-SOUTH... ..SYNOPSIS FORMIDABLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ENE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE LOWER/MID-MS VLY BY TONIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A LOW OVER WCNTRL OK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AND MIGRATE INTO SRN MO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TO THE MID-OH VLY BY 12Z/25. TO THE E OF THE LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NWD TO ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER BY LATE MORNING AND THE OH VLY LATER IN THE DAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM E TX/OK EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VLY BY TONIGHT. ..ERN OK/TX EWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH/TN VLY STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSPORT LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S SFC DEW POINTS AS FAR N AS ERN OK...NRN AR AND WRN TN/KY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD TSTM THREAT AS 90-120 METER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH/TN VLY. TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN OK/NWRN TX NEAR THE SFC LOW AND DRYLINE/TROUGH AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO IMPACT WRN PERIPHERY OF MOIST PLUME. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX OWING TO FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THE MORNING STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY WITH ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED ACTIVITY SPROUTING DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON FROM NERN TX INTO WRN/CNTRL AR ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR HIGHER-IMPACT SEVERE THREATS AS THEY MATURE OVER NRN LA...CNTRL/ERN AR...NWRN MS AND WRN TN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-MID-EVENING HOURS. SSWLY 850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS BENEATH INCREASING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST OVERALL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT...LIKELY IN CNTRL/NERN AR AND WRN TN...WILL BE EMBEDDED IN 200-300 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND WILL OFFER THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A QLCS DURING THE MID-EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY ENE INTO THE TN VLY/DEEP SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WELL INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF MIDDLE TN...MS AND WRN AL. GIVEN THAT THE STRONG FORCING WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE OH VLY...ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS THE OH RVR AS WELL...THOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE FARTHER S. ..RACY/COHEN.. 02/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Poor Jackson - have had friends down when they have been hit. Just the wrong place to live I guess. They have had it rough Trying to juggle the flash flood threat with the storms - at least we wont be right in the middle of this outbreak Now the Sunday event - could be a different beast. Going to be a long six days. I forget, what is it 3 F4s since 1999? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Exciting day of work tomorrow here in Nashville! I'll be right in the middle of downtown (our office), and if it goes through Jackson, it nearly always produces a few warnings in Nashville metro. Seems like everything keeps moving a tad bit east with the updated forecasts, so it's not out of the realm that this becomes a significant event for Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Convection is developing across West Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Convection is developing across West Texas. That is interesting because no t storms are mentioned in the point forecast for the area around Lubbock overnight and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Warm front is moving through NW TN right now. Having a thunderstorm here right as the temp is 51/50 now. Starting to think the severe threat might be a little bit further north than expected. Especially since I'm on the southern fringe of the heavy rainfall. Lots of lightning with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 why is a TVS showing on wunderground for hermitage, tn? Lightning is really popping here...heavy rain, intense thunder/lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH WRN AND N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 240907Z - 241100Z THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN AND N-CNTRL OK. ANY WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MID-MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK THEN WWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. UPPER 50S-LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ADVECTING EWD AND INTERCEPTING THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS SWRN OK AND NWRN TX RESULTING IN RESERVOIR OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPE. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN TWO DISTINCT REGIMES. THE FIRST IS ACROSS WRN TX WHERE MID-LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A NEWD EJECTING VORT MAX IS INTERACTING WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING IN HIGH BASED STORMS NEAR LUBBOCK. THE OTHER IS OVER NRN OK INTO SRN KS WHERE THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH TIME...THE DEEPER ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MOISTER AND MORE UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 the storm B4 on wunderground was a purple triangle,now its back to just the yellow meso marker. anyoone know how sound the logic is behind the purple TVS that can sometimes show up on wundergound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The convection east of Lubbock fired on a boundary (Its too early for me to even go look what that might be, I'd guess the dryline) with dewpoints in the 20's to the west and 40's to the east. No lighting is being produced, but I think this shows pretty well how much shear is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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