weatherbo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I have been telling people at work and on facebook today that watches should be posted by 4:00pm for the IWX counties. Hopefully my predictions are accurate! :-) Today's model runs seems to confirm IWX's morning concerns about this storm's snow/ice potential and warrants the issuance of watches in today's AFD update. That is my opinion though... I actually think IWX will hold off on any watch right now.... just a gut feeling. This storm gives me a very marginal type sloppy feeling. With March almost here, I'd like to see one more decent snow, though. I'm beginning to feel a little too far north with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looking closer at the 12z NAM/GFS, they do have a narrow band of significant ice in parts of central Indiana. Maybe icing will be a concern after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just wait a few days. Oh I know .. But my yard so much needs to dry out, so I can send out the kid to clean up the backyard. We've got 3 dogs, and since the backyard has been frozen and snow covered for awhile now, you can imagine what it looks like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Oh I know .. But my yard so much needs to dry out, so I can send out the kid to clean up the backyard. We've got 3 dogs, and since the backyard has been frozen and snow covered for awhile now, you can imagine what it looks like.. Well, the water/flooding concerns will only be going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looking closer at the 12z NAM/GFS, they do have a narrow band of significant ice in parts of central Indiana. Maybe icing will be a concern after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ouch - or potential ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Oh I know .. But my yard so much needs to dry out, so I can send out the kid to clean up the backyard. We've got 3 dogs, and since the backyard has been frozen and snow covered for awhile now, you can imagine what it looks like.. Well it'll be buried again or floating in a temporary river...take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NAM is a little farther north with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yep, I love snow as much as anyone here.. But, ready to move towards some warmer temps and plain rain.. No doubt that Chicago can have all the snow for the rest of the winter.. So here's to Chicago being targeted from here on out! We don't want it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 QPF: DVN: 0.26" PIA: 0.52" ORD: 0.17" MDW: 0.25" LAF: 0.92" IND: 1.45" GRR: 0.13" DTW: 0.51" TOL: 0.80" YYZ: 0.37" Awesome. Just want to get up to average and then winter can kiss my pasty ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'll always take snow. I won't be devestated or bummed if i get passed over, but i'll always take snow. Looks like any SE trend has stopped or slightly reversed today. System still looks progressive and cold sector precip somewhat marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 QPF: DVN: 0.26" PIA: 0.52" ORD: 0.17" MDW: 0.25" LAF: 0.92" IND: 1.45" GRR: 0.13" DTW: 0.51" TOL: 0.80" YYZ: 0.37" This should get ORD to a record breaking February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Horrible excuse. It all falls at night. Good dose of salt on any parking lot will keep it to water... My thinking might be different then yours. Even so .17 of QPF at 10:1 ratios and a dose of mix on the front end and warm ground from daylight hours should still make that hard to accumulate. Rapidly approaching the time of year where even at night we need it to snow at a good clip to accumulate on roadways and such. Trees and lawns not so much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 What storm this winter has Baum not called for a slop-fest in Chicago? Why change now? the blizzard....I was on the train for epic and got it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Good dose of salt on any parking lot will keep it to water... My thinking might be different then yours. Even so .17 of QPF at 10:1 ratios and a dose of mix on the front end and warm ground from daylight hours should still make that hard to accumulate. Rapidly approaching the time of year where even at night we need it to snow at a good clip to accumulate on roadways and such. Trees and lawns not so much... Unfortunantely this did not pan out on Tuesday night. Tons of accidents from the sleet that fell around 8pm. I was also on the road and it was quite bad. I know they shut down some roads because of this. We might have this problem again later tonight if these temps stay below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Unfortunantely this did not pan out on Tuesday night. Tons of accidents from the sleet that fell around 8pm. I was also on the road and it was quite bad. I know they shut down some roads because of this. We might have this problem again later tonight if these temps stay below freezing. oh snap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I would expect IND to bump up snow amounts in the afternoon package especially north of I-70. They might be reluctant to issue a watch but I could see some areas getting the warning criteria of 6" in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Unfortunantely this did not pan out on Tuesday night. Tons of accidents from the sleet that fell around 8pm. I was also on the road and it was quite bad. I know they shut down some roads because of this. We might have this problem again later tonight if these temps stay below freezing. As well, a big multi-vehicle wreck down in St. Louis this morning from a glaze on the roads. But hey that late February sun angle makes sure everything is wet than frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Unfortunantely this did not pan out on Tuesday night. Tons of accidents from the sleet that fell around 8pm. I was also on the road and it was quite bad. I know they shut down some roads because of this. We might have this problem again later tonight if these temps stay below freezing. not on my parking lots hate to say it but part of that was caused by folks(IDOT,county,municipalities) expecting a 2-5 inch snowfall which never materialized and no warning for freezing drizzle. Add to that day b4 rain washed all the roads free of salt chemicals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Impressive lift being shown especially on the NAM. I would easily expect a period of 1-2" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 not on my parking lots hate to say it but part of that was caused by folks(IDOT,county,municipalities) expecting a 2-5 inch snowfall which never materialized and no warning for freezing drizzle. Add to that day b4 rain washed all the roads free of salt chemicals. ORD gonna break the February record. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 15z SREF mean has shifted north a bit from 9z, although there's a lot of variability with the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Impressive lift being shown especially on the NAM. I would easily expect a period of 1-2" per hour rates. The problem (as I alluded to below) is that the lift will be above the DGZ and the best moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The problem (as I alluded to below) is that the lift will be above the DGZ and the best moisture. Even if the lift is not colocated, I don't think that is going to prevent heavy bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 ORD gonna break the February record. Deal with it. yup..1-3 inches here but you guys look like ground zero. Congrats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Even if the lift is not colocated, I don't think that is going to prevent heavy bursts. But it will probably keep the actual accumulations from those bursts subdued a half inch or so. 4-8" sounds like a fair forecast for this storm, with isolated higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 But it will prboably keep the actual accumulations from those bursts subdued a half inch or so. 4-8" sounds like a fair forecast for this storm, with isolated higher amounts. Something about the track just doesn't seem right to me. I think once its onshore it may go a bit more NW. Toledo looks like the best spot as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Something about the track just doesn't seem right to me. I think once its onshore it may go a bit more NW. Toledo looks like the best spot as of now. There's nothing to really stop it from coming a little further NW, and like I said models handle these baja systems very poorly in this range. Addmittingly the models have come to a somewhat better consensus as of the 12z runs with some better (though not yet full) sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Impressive lift being shown especially on the NAM. I would easily expect a period of 1-2" per hour rates. Yes Sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Something about the track just doesn't seem right to me. I think once its onshore it may go a bit more NW. Toledo looks like the best spot as of now. Well.....cough cough.. Im always the one who is a negative nancy...Im changing my tune after the NW trending as of late. Im once again on board. lol Yes TOL looks to be the winner as of now. But a few more runs NW and our home base is game. More watching and waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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