Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z GFS for ORD... Nice front end hit, to rain, to freezing rain, to snow. SUN 12Z 20-FEB -1.1 -2.1 1020 98 100 0.40 559 543 SUN 18Z 20-FEB 0.1 2.7 1012 97 100 0.18 557 547 MON 00Z 21-FEB 0.4 6.1 1003 100 98 0.10 553 550 MON 06Z 21-FEB -0.3 4.8 999 97 83 0.43 546 546 MON 12Z 21-FEB -2.7 0.4 1002 96 63 0.05 539 537 MON 18Z 21-FEB -4.5 -6.4 1010 94 97 0.09 539 531 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -5.8 -11.5 1017 93 84 0.03 538 526 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Why wouldn't you if you like snow?.. Kinda a no-brainer... Even though ice is crippling at times, it is unique, so it isn't necessarily a no-brainer. Also, with this snow being such a heavy wet snow, it makes it less fun to shovel, so 8 inches of pavement/cement is not as good as 8 inches of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Enjoy it even though you don't want it.. You see this every year on the boards starting this time and lasting the remainder of the season. People claim to be ready for spring and say they dont want any more snow, then when its on their doorstep...boy does their tune change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Enjoy it even though you don't want it.. I don't want it, but whatever happens, happens. None of us can control it. Although, if it's going to snow, I rather it be a big storm then some 3-4 inch type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 From the quickball it looks like the GFS is a snowpedo for la crosse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z NAM quite impressive with the UVV's and MUCAPE around here on sunday. still a good deal away but I wouldn't rule out some TSPL or TSSN around here with these numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z GFS for ORD... Nice front end hit, to rain, to freezing rain, to snow. SUN 12Z 20-FEB -1.1 -2.1 1020 98 100 0.40 559 543 SUN 18Z 20-FEB 0.1 2.7 1012 97 100 0.18 557 547 MON 00Z 21-FEB 0.4 6.1 1003 100 98 0.10 553 550 MON 06Z 21-FEB -0.3 4.8 999 97 83 0.43 546 546 MON 12Z 21-FEB -2.7 0.4 1002 96 63 0.05 539 537 MON 18Z 21-FEB -4.5 -6.4 1010 94 97 0.09 539 531 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -5.8 -11.5 1017 93 84 0.03 538 526 Do you have this data for MKE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z GFS for ORD... Nice front end hit, to rain, to freezing rain, to snow. SUN 12Z 20-FEB -1.1 -2.1 1020 98 100 0.40 559 543 SUN 18Z 20-FEB 0.1 2.7 1012 97 100 0.18 557 547 MON 00Z 21-FEB 0.4 6.1 1003 100 98 0.10 553 550 MON 06Z 21-FEB -0.3 4.8 999 97 83 0.43 546 546 MON 12Z 21-FEB -2.7 0.4 1002 96 63 0.05 539 537 MON 18Z 21-FEB -4.5 -6.4 1010 94 97 0.09 539 531 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -5.8 -11.5 1017 93 84 0.03 538 526 more like the NAM regarding the front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Do you have this data for MKE? SUN 12Z 20-FEB -1.3 -3.7 1022 96 96 0.15 556 540 SUN 18Z 20-FEB -0.3 -3.5 1014 97 99 0.57 554 543 MON 00Z 21-FEB -0.6 0.2 1006 96 99 0.19 549 545 MON 06Z 21-FEB -2.0 -2.8 1003 96 98 0.39 542 540 MON 12Z 21-FEB -4.2 -6.3 1006 92 96 0.08 536 531 MON 18Z 21-FEB -5.4 -10.0 1014 90 94 0.05 537 526 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -6.3 -12.3 1019 87 8 0.01 538 524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Chi, what about here? Where do you get those anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 SUN 12Z 20-FEB -1.3 -3.7 1022 96 96 0.15 556 540 SUN 18Z 20-FEB -0.3 -3.5 1014 97 99 0.57 554 543 MON 00Z 21-FEB -0.6 0.2 1006 96 99 0.19 549 545 MON 06Z 21-FEB -2.0 -2.8 1003 96 98 0.39 542 540 MON 12Z 21-FEB -4.2 -6.3 1006 92 96 0.08 536 531 MON 18Z 21-FEB -5.4 -10.0 1014 90 94 0.05 537 526 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -6.3 -12.3 1019 87 8 0.01 538 524 Where is BowMe he is gonna get buried... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Where is BowMe he is gonna get buried... Yeah, talk about tenuous though. That -0.3 (I assume that's the surface temp, not the 850 mb) is mighty close to being sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yeah, talk about tenuous though. That -0.3 (I assume that's the surface temp, not the 850 mb) is mighty close to being sleet or freezing rain. Yeah the cutoff is going to be crazy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Chi, what about here? Where do you get those anyways? SUN 12Z 20-FEB -3.3 -4.1 1022 93 98 0.08 554 537 SUN 18Z 20-FEB -1.7 -4.8 1015 98 99 0.43 551 539 MON 00Z 21-FEB -2.6 -4.9 1008 98 98 0.22 547 541 MON 06Z 21-FEB -4.3 -7.2 1006 98 97 0.44 540 535 MON 12Z 21-FEB -6.5 -10.7 1010 97 98 0.12 535 527 MON 18Z 21-FEB -7.3 -11.7 1017 93 76 0.04 537 524 Accupro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Would be .19 QPF frozen precip (freezing rain/sleet etc) and the rest of the QPF would be snow I would think. Talking about MKE btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I believe it, and it's certainly plausible. Impressive to extreme Omega values are centered directly in the DGZ. It's going to be a aggregated type of snow too, which accumulates rather efficiently. For sure and models have been showing the elevated instability too....could be one "last good blast" before I go to "the land of the windy seas".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 SUN 12Z 20-FEB -3.3 -4.1 1022 93 98 0.08 554 537 SUN 18Z 20-FEB -1.7 -4.8 1015 98 99 0.43 551 539 MON 00Z 21-FEB -2.6 -4.9 1008 98 98 0.22 547 541 MON 06Z 21-FEB -4.3 -7.2 1006 98 97 0.44 540 535 MON 12Z 21-FEB -6.5 -10.7 1010 97 98 0.12 535 527 MON 18Z 21-FEB -7.3 -11.7 1017 93 76 0.04 537 524 Accupro. Just wondering but is that first column of temps 2m or 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 2M temps. Should be all snow here on the GFS. Twister Data showing widespread 12+ inches for most of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 UKIE at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks to be in nearly the exact spot as the 18z GFS at hr 60. Nearly the same strength as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Just wondering but is that first column of temps 2m or 850? First column is 2M temps and the second is 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This has the looking of a awful ice storm for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It is prolly a bit too amped--but it certainly is more realistic than the NAM. I will be watching it too. i agree...for the hell of it, i ran the 18Z 54hr of the rgem and has a 993L at mason city, ia and the 850L on the mn/ia border...reguardless, i'm pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Skilling take from his facebook page Quiet wx thru 1st half of Sat nite-but a storm's next. Snow/sleet starts Sun' pre-dawn; heavy rain follows Sun. Embedded thunder possible. First round of sleet/snow cud stick. We're getting big precip numbers off the late weekend storm system frm an array of models-up to 1.44"! Mon into Mon night cud present their own wx challenges. Cold long-fetch NNE winds & steep vertical temp drop set stage for lake-effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This has the looking of a awful ice storm for Detroit. The 18z runs show snow to ice to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 i agree...for the hell of it, i ran the 18Z 54hr of the rgem and has a 993L at mason city, ia and the 850L on the mn/ia border...reguardless, i'm pumped. It might not be too amped after seeing the GFS--it lends credence to the usually over-amped RGEM in its latter forecast hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This has the looking of a awful ice storm for Detroit. Yeah I totally agree....and any convection if it occurs will only exacerbate the situation....I should have a fun shift though....and a "fun ride" home for me and in for stebo........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It might not be too amped after seeing the GFS--it lends credence to the usually over-amped RGEM in its latter forecast hours. what are your thoughts on track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18Z GEFS mean is south and a great hit from MN/WI/all of Lower MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18Z GEFS mean is south and a great hit from MN/WI/all of Lower MI South of the 12z GEFS or south of the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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