earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Still snowing through 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 4-8" through 60 hrs north of I-78 this run in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 63 hours, changeover..but most of the precipitation is over by that hour..light showers probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 78 hrs 996mb low over WV...snow into SE PA/NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 81 hours great hit for DC...S PA into Philly with good stuff kissing my house barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If there is going to be a two wave event that works out, it would be this winter. Right now the steadiest models seems to be the gefs and they get the local area pretty good with the second wave and have been trending colder with the first. NAM looks very good with the second wave bringing snow into NYC at 81 through 84 hours with the best yet to come!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wow at 84 hours. That is an awesome look. Snowing from DC to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 81 hours great hit for DC...S PA into Philly with good stuff kissing my house barely. sorry but I found this funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Still snowing through 60 hrs most likely sleet at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 storm vista snow total algorithm has 8" for NJ north of PHL to just west of NYC at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If there is going to be a two wave event that works out, it would be this winter. Right now the steadiest models seems to be the gefs and they get the local area pretty good with the second wave and have been trending colder with the first. NAM looks very good with the second wave bringing snow into NYC at 81 through 84 hours with the best yet to come!!! Nice post.....most ensemble guidance makes the clear distinction between the 2 waves. On to the global zero zee runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 storm vista snow total algorithm has 8" for NJ north of PHL to just west of NYC at 84 hrs with more to come so this run would be a solid 12"+ us combined both storms..Game on noticed the PV orientation changed a big, just weaker overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Lots more to come looking at hour 84 hour sim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 storm vista snow total algorithm has 8" for NJ north of PHL to just west of NYC at 84 hrs NYC might be in a pretty good position for wave #2. I think you probably want to be just a shade too far N at this point in the game on a SWFE. The first wave you have to look at 750mb for the warm layer. At 60h, its ripping pellets because of big surge of warm air above 800mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nice post.....most ensemble guidance makes the clear distinction between the 2 waves. On to the global zero zee runs.... Even Upton said that the second waive is too dry and supressed on the op globals and favored the cmc ensemble and gefs blend. The only problem with the second wave is that its not coming up the coast, its sliding w to se, so it needs an expansive precip shield and needs to slide right under PA as it moves to the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Even Upton said that the second waive is too dry and supressed on the op globals and favored the cmc ensemble and gefs blend. The only problem with the second wave is that its not coming up the coast, its sliding w to se, so it needs an expansive precip shield and needs to slide right under PA as it moves to the SE It looks like there is sufficient separation of shortwaves on the NAM, for the second one to amplify just in time for a nice event for the area....complicated set up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It looks like there is sufficient separation of shortwaves on the NAM, for the second one to amplify just in time for a nice event for the area....complicated set up.... yeah, this is the only way this works the way the nam has it at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 speaking of the 1st event, the precip ends just after 60 hours and to that point nyc north is snow, here is the nyc sounding at 57 which is all snow and then it goes to pingers at 60 hours but its ending obviously places to the north of NYC stay snow longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 speaking of the 1st event, the precip ends just after 60 hours and to that point nyc north is snow, here is the nyc sounding at 57 which is all snow and then it goes to pingers at 60 hours but its ending obviously places to the north of NYC stay snow longer We've got guidance going in the right direction so far tonight after this horrible pattern.....all we can ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 speaking of the 1st event, the precip ends just after 60 hours and to that point nyc north is snow, here is the nyc sounding at 57 which is all snow and then it goes to pingers at 60 hours but its ending obviously places to the north of NYC stay snow longer Looks like motsly snow up this way in orange county with 0.74 of QPF for round 1. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KSWF.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 good setup for orange county on the 1st event. they should do nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM at 84 high resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I can't get over how awesome that frame is. It's a long ways out, but it's snowing with temperatures in the lower teens, northerly winds, and 850 temperatures colder than 10c everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Clown maps through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Is the winter crew completely dead from today's thunderstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 one of these two waves is going to leave someone in the area with 8+. Money is on orange county right now but that second wave could be the black sheep from an area from earthlight right up to the ct coast. Sadly, that means more than a few of us are gonna outside looking in, but thats cool, its been a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Is the winter crew completely dead from today's thunderstorms? Those were jets breaking the sound barrier. Thunderstorms dont happen till spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Is the winter crew completely dead from today's thunderstorms? Not me. I am ready for the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Is the winter crew completely dead from today's thunderstorms? John - it'll be interesting to see how this plays out, its been almost 3 weeks from tracking aside from last Friday's miss. Good to be back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 All this the most terrilbe pattern possible..... Monster -PNA, +NAO, +AO... The power of the baroclinic zone and the dynamics invovled at mid level frontogenesis is quite the winner here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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