atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The above statement couldn't be more incorrect! This systtem was originally modeled as a clipper and now it is digging much further to the south and interacting with the southern stream, so in fact has trended completely the opposite of what you say above! 00z GFS on the 5th of FEB 78 hrs equals 6 Z tuesday... Low pressure is well east at that point and time... 12 Z run for same time today... Low pressure is more SW at the present time.....I do not think I am wrong in that thinking.... matter of fact I will say it looks pretty much like this... So i would not be surprised if this also came further west yet.... PS Mods feel free to move this to the other thread if you want ..I only responded to it here because he did.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAO since around FEB 1st has been neutral to positive.....not sure i see the difference going 7 days out when it is still showing as neutral to positive... AO is quite positive at this point and over the next 7 days is expected to go towards neutral... PNA is neutral and going negative..... Now teleconnection wise we pretty much know that a + PNA places a trough along the east coast and ridging out west...we do not have that in place...and for the most recent system either ..we do have a negative EPO but then that to will be going towards positive sometime along or after the 10th.... Once again you are coming out with wishcasting statements etc but I have not placed a forecast for this system at all. All i have stated is that by the time this gets into the shorter range and by shorter range I have clarified 36-48 and under ..I would not be surprised to see that this has trended more towards the west.... It would not be the first time that models have over done the extent of the cold air pushing south& the PV and underdone the extent of the SE ridge. . again I will continue to do what I always do which is monitor the guidance and the teleconnectors and fine tune my thoughts until we are at about 24 hrs out... at that time is when a forecast will be issued and not before then... [/ Ok so now that you've ingested today's guidance what are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 One can only hope this is wrong. We are in February..snowiest month typically for this area. If February is an epic fail back there... then you'll know how I felt this past month! Well, except that you've already had well over average and I haven't even gotten to average... good thing it can snow in May here. Really need something positive to change in order to get another decent snow event or two. Not really ready for temps of 50's until the end of April. You need to move. Average highs reach the 50s in March. Most peoople would take another 6-10 inch storm with temps in the teens Most people on this board, maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If you take a look at the 12z indiviulal GFS ensemble members, a lot of them have this passing JUST south of us. A big improvement from last night's 00z run. Still think we have time for this to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 [/b] 00z GFS on the 5th of FEB 78 hrs equals 6 Z tuesday... Low pressure is well east at that point and time... 12 Z run for same time today... Low pressure is more SW at the present time.....I do not think I am wrong in that thinking.... matter of fact I will say it looks pretty much like this... So i would not be surprised if this also came further west yet.... PS Mods feel free to move this to the other thread if you want ..I only responded to it here because he did.... The southern stream is further north and west bc of it's interaction with the northern stream which is now digging much further to the south and east than originally progged. It depends how you look at it I guess. The only reason the southern stream is involved now is bc the northern stream is digging more and faster than originally modeled. Anyway I'm done good luck with your forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Don is not impressed: Just a few quick thoughts: 1. It appears that GFS's early depiction of an off-shore solution for Thursday has become increasingly likely. There may still be some modest shifts, but I believe a blockbuster event is unlikely. 2. Tuesday's event could bring some accumulations of snow to the north and west of Philadelphia into southern New England. The largest accumulations will probably be to the north and west of the big cities, though a short period of snow can't be ruled out for the cities. Boston would have the best prospect of picking up a few inches of snow, but the soundings are still uncomfortably warm there. 3. The thaw continues to appear on the modeling. For now, today is one of those dreaded "melting days." The snow is dissolving under the sun's heat and the mercury has pushed above 40° in much of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England regions. For what its worth, I'll say that there is still time for this to shift since the main pieces of energy are still offshore. However, in 24 or at most 36 hours, if there hasn't been a shift, then this threat is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Alright perhaps I am seeing things wrong here but i am looking at the images off of Raleighs and it appears as if the ECM has some kind of energy actually near FL at 120 hrs And then it tries to bring this up well off the eastern seaboard at 144 hrs.... Or is that area of low pressure out in the Atlantic the low pressure that is north of the lakes at 120 hrs? I do not have the in between hours to be able to verify where exactly that low pressure comes from? Its a seperate event, peaked my curiosity today, as its a few hundred miles west of 00z run last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 FWIW the 12 Z JMA looks like at 120 hrs it is right off of HAT From there it has a low at 144 East of NOVA scotia I do remember one of the pro mets mentioning that the JMA has been performing pretty good..its a model i do not normally look to but just throwing it up there to show that there is variance out there yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 FWIW the 12 Z JMA looks like at 120 hrs it is right off of HAT From there it has a low at 144 East of NOVA scotia I do remember one of the pro mets mentioning that the JMA has been performing pretty good..its a model i do not normally look to but just throwing it up there to show that there is variance out there yet... From the maps over at Accuweather it appears the JMA is very bullish for the event on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 JB update NO WILD LATE WEEK STORM AS DIVING PNA DOES ITS DIRTY WORK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 By the way, JB just updated and finally threw in the towel for the late week storm. Next week it could hit 70 in DC. 75% to as much as 90% of the snow has fallen this winter for NYC and Philly. Of course take these words with a grain of salt since JB has sucked big time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The JMA is such a pain in the neck with the 24 hour intervalls, can't figure out anything in a situation like tuesday's event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well thanks depressing... Might as well get out the shorts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well thanks depressing... Might as well get out the shorts! it's actually not that bad...can go to blue mountain and ski in shorts/t-shirt...haven't done that in a while FWIW it looks like the GEFS made some slight improvements, but still a no go like every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAM at 84 doesn't look too bad. Heights starting to rise on the east coast/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Comparing 18z NAM to 12z GFS you can see huge difference with the heights on the east coast. Let's see what the DGEX does with our storm. GFS is as progressive as you can get, NAM looks like it might try to do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 By the way, JB just updated and finally threw in the towel for the late week storm. Next week it could hit 70 in DC. 75% to as much as 90% of the snow has fallen this winter for NYC and Philly. Of course take these words with a grain of salt since JB has sucked big time this winter. but he said nuclear winter blizzard bomb was coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 but he said nuclear winter blizzard bomb was coming Yea didn't he just update his winter forecast a like last week saying the rest of winter was going to be amazing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 When JB bails on a storm, especially this far out, you know things don't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well I'll take a Febuary week of 50's/40's and then have a 3ft snow storm or 12 ft storms every few days, one can wish hopefully... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 When JB bails on a storm, especially this far out, you know things don't look good. Now is when it will start coming back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 One can only hope this is wrong. We are in February..snowiest month typically for this area. Really need something positive to change in order to get another decent snow event or two. Not really ready for temps of 50's until the end of April. Most peoople would take another 6-10 inch storm with temps in the teens Holding out hope we get somehting good near the end of February or early March 50s not til the end of April, what planet are you on. Most people want spring to happen and not teens and more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 bring on spring....60s and 70s. Im ready for it This is a storm threat discussion thread and not a discussion about warm temps and that you are ready for it. We have a banter thread to discuss this bs with warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow so many people ready for the warm weather and its only February 6th! I for one am not ready for the warmth. I will have enough of that when its in the 90's with high humidity much rather have the cold weather! And who can trust jb first he said winter was done until March then he had ta getting whacked with winter storm now he saying break out the shorts again...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Mt Holly updated AFD THE ECMWF SHIFTED IN THISDIRECTION LAST EVENING AND THE 12Z CYCLE MAINTAINS THIS SCENARIO.THEREFORE, THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR NO REAL STORM NOW FOR OURAREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTERTHAT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, THE MODEL GUIDANCE COMES BACKNORTHWESTWARD WITH THE STORM TRACK. WHILE THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAINWITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS AGAINST IT. FIRST, THEBROADNESS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORESHARPNESS TAKING PLACE AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST. SECONDLY,FOLLOWING THIS STORM THERE IS A PATTERN CHANGE FORECAST TO OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Mt Holly updated AFD THE ECMWF SHIFTED IN THISDIRECTION LAST EVENING AND THE 12Z CYCLE MAINTAINS THIS SCENARIO.THEREFORE, THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR NO REAL STORM NOW FOR OURAREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTERTHAT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, THE MODEL GUIDANCE COMES BACKNORTHWESTWARD WITH THE STORM TRACK. WHILE THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAINWITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS AGAINST IT. FIRST, THEBROADNESS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORESHARPNESS TAKING PLACE AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST. SECONDLY,FOLLOWING THIS STORM THERE IS A PATTERN CHANGE FORECAST TO OCCUR. I love how you highlight only the portion that supports your argument and ignore the whole following section... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I sense a thread implosion commencing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I love how you highlight only the portion that supports your argument and ignore the whole following section... Thank you Famartin!!!!! Weenieism at it's finest!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I love how you highlight only the portion that supports your argument and ignore the whole following section... Wishcasting 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wishcasting 101. And another, nice to see there are others that agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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