famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I don't think it was mentioned here but Mt. Holly killed the threat in their forecast for most people... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Does anyone have the GFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Someone needs to hack into the 12z Euro and make it initialize the PV 500 miles to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Not yet, but it's getting close. I don't think the current situation is being modeled very well vs current observations. Come on dude, you're grasping at straws that aren't there. The best hope is that we get some overrunning garbage out of this. It's not coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 FWIW the longer range doesn't appear as bleak. The cold air this winter is proving rather stubborn and we may have some stuff to track after some moderation for a bit. However, can anybody remember a winter where we didn't have at least one warm snap and usually multiple. I noticed on my gas bill this month that the avg temp for this January compared to last was 28.5 F comapred to 33F last year. That's rather distinct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 FWIW the longer range doesn't appear as bleak. The cold air this winter is proving rather stubborn and we may have some stuff to track after some moderation for a bit. However, can anybody remember a winter where we didn't have at least one warm snap and usually multiple. I noticed on my gas bill this month that the avg temp for this January compared to last was 28.5 F comapred to 33F last year. That's rather distinct. Sounds about right. The January before last was even colder than this past January, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Come on dude, you're grasping at straws that aren't there. The best hope is that we get some overrunning garbage out of this. It's not coming up the coast. Yes I agree, normally at this range if things were going to change we would have one or two models throwing us a bone but its been pretty much locked in. It's just hard to let go of what once was considering whats already happened this year. East coast storm threats at their greatest. I suppose this is better than a lakes cutter or having a bomb miss everyone off to the east but for the first time in a long time, their are no forceable threats on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Sounds about right. The January before last was even colder than this past January, though. Yeah and we were pretty skunked snow wise if I remember correctly in Jan 09. Kind of like the setup for the end of this week. We had the abundance of cold, but too much suppression in 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yeah and we were pretty skunked snow wise if I remember correctly in Jan 09. Kind of like the setup for the end of this week. We had the abundance of cold, but too much suppression in 09. January 2009 wasn't a skunking IIRC. Now the JANs before that...06-08 were all awful. 10 wasn't that good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 How about those 12z GFS ensembles? I expect 18z and 0z to make a massive correction west, especially if the euro comes in more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 How about those 12z GFS ensembles? I expect 18z and 0z to make a massive correction west, especially if the euro comes in more amplified. Really? Link? Haven't seen em.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 How about those 12z GFS ensembles? I expect 18z and 0z to make a massive correction west, especially if the euro comes in more amplified. Any particular reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Any particular reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I don't follow. There is a bit more overrunning on the ensembles, which the models have been trending towards. How does that equal a "massive correction westward?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 January 2009 wasn't a skunking IIRC. Now the JANs before that...06-08 were all awful. 10 wasn't that good either. was where I live! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I don't follow. There is a bit more overrunning on the ensembles, which the models have been trending towards. How does that equal a "massive correction westward?" I think it's significant to go from nothing to a light snow event. Places further south might cash in big time.You seem pretty determined to downplay this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I think it's significant to go from nothing to a light snow event. Places further south might cash in big time. Yeah, I can agree with that. People in VA/NC should be happy with where things are trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That is overrunning, not a coastal. NAM has hinted at this for a bit now. Totally diff setup than the "storm of the century" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yeah, I can agree with that. People in VA/NC should be happy with where things are trending. 11/12 members are more amplified than the OP. You could say that many people don't even look at the ensembles so any changes in the OP would be surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That is overrunning, not a coastal. NAM has hinted at this for a bit now. Totally diff setup than the "storm of the century" It's associated with the same vort energy. I'm not asking for much in a la nina winter.The December 26th system was a complete anomaly to the highest degree. Though, you could blame it on the historically negative NAO aswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 11/12 members are more amplified than the OP. You could say that many people don't even look at the ensembles so any changes in the OP would be surprising It's not even more amplified at H5, there is just stronger isentropic lift. I think the trends are good for people, but let's not get carried away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I see nothing in the ensembles which would make me put the hammer down from nailing the coffin shut but how does the Euro look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It's not even more amplified at H5, there is just stronger isentropic lift. I think the trends are good for people, but let's not get carried away. You know more than I do obviously, was just trying to describe the increased QPF the best I could. I'll go research isentropic lift now, sounds interesting. It's just the scientific phrase for overrunning, awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 You know more than I do obviously, was just trying to describe the increased QPF the best I could. I'll go research isentropic lift now, sounds interesting. Isentropic lift is just fancy-science speak for overrunning. It just means the warm advection across the warm front is stronger, leading to upglide and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I see nothing in the ensembles which would make me put the hammer down from nailing the coffin shut but how does the Euro look? It's between the GFS op and ensemble. Good hit for NC, not so much for VA or points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It's associated with the same vort energy. I'm not asking for much in a la nina winter.The December 26th system was a complete anomaly to the highest degree. Though, you could blame it on the historically negative NAO aswell. Yes it is, not questioning that at all. It's all WAA . It's just that people have some notion that this is going to turn into a coastal low a run up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm officially throwing in the towel on this one. The models would have to be more wrong on this one than they were for 12/26 if this turns out to be anything more than a few hours of WAA precip, which to be honest looks to miss us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm officially throwing in the towel on this one. The models would have to be more wrong on this one than they were for 12/26 if this turns out to be anything more than a few hours of WAA precip, which to be honest looks to miss us to the south. You can thak JB and others for trumpetting this thing 8 days out with higly questionalbe teleconnections and no model consistency, but hey they are more concerned with website hits than accuracy so we should all learn a lesson there and take some of the blame if we had our hopes up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 You can thak JB and others for trumpetting this thing 8 days out with higly questionalbe teleconnections and no model consistency, but hey they are more concerned with website hits than accuracy so we should all learn a lesson there and take some of the blame if we had our hopes up! Ehhh, it actually wasn't that far fetched to think this was going to be something with the big high dropping down out of Canada creating a lot of baroclinicity. It's one of the perils of trying to make medium range forecasts (I know my company wasn't the only private outfit starting to chirp late last week - and people better than me here like Don were on board with the pattern). Now, if you are talking about targeting the big cities 8 days out, sure, then I agree. But this storm had a lot of potential that is going to go untapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yes, this one will go down as yet another HECS that never was.......they are historic because the pieces fall into place so rarely. I'm liking our chances at a possible PDIII though. I think patience in the next ten days will be rewarded with everlasting glory! ROFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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