Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 love how there is an 800 mile jump in the surface low location thurs at 12z compared to 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 102 the storm moves ots and brushes the outer banks and orf area with precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 love how there is an 800 mile jump in the surface low location thurs at 12z compared to 00z run you could tell it was going to be worse like you said. The storm was much slower...the pv out ran it and crushed it south instead of phasing in and amplifying the hgts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 theres not even a low to speak of at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Storm crushed by PV, then pattern change with area flooded by warmth. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 that this is going to be coming more west & Adams thoughts are very much IMO going to be realized by the time this is in short range..... From what you just quoted back to me... Are we in the short range yet? Did i not just come back to you with viable reasoning supported by teleconnections, and model guidance? Somehow you ignored that...I am not sure why..... You are entitled to your thoughts and you have not upset me by any means...verification time is about 120 hours away from happening and i have yet to come out with a forecast only thoughts at this present time based on what is happening and what has happened and what is still happening via now with the monday tuesday event.... (more northwest then originally modeled) It's cool atown and I "hope" your right:) I'm sorry for pointing a finger, but AmPSU thoughts if you go back and read them do not portray certainty like yours does and after today's runs look rather bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Storm crushed by PV, then pattern change with area flooded by warmth. Gotta love it. no one can really complain atleast in the philly area on south, you have 40 inches of snow in a winter that no one gave a chance. With snow cover from dec 26 on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The timing between the PV and the SW low have gradually been getting worse for the past few days. This one has become a real longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 no one can really complain atleast in the philly area on south, you have 40 inches of snow in a winter that no one gave a chance. With snow cover from dec 26 on... I know but still. Just annoying seeing the GFS show that storm for like 5 runs in a row then just decided to drop it and not give anyone north of NC snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 you can;t really complain, you have 40 inches of snow in a winter that no one gave a chance. With snow cover from dec 26 on... Absolutely agree - I have had 59 inches in monmouth cty, nj and at least 15 still on the ground - if its over its over who cares at this point. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Bring on spring! If no good storms on the horizon then melt this brown snow crap and start the growing season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I know but still. Just annoying seeing the GFS show that storm for like 5 runs in a row then just decided to drop it and not give anyone north of NC snow. yea it sucks, but it was also progged 5 runs in a row at 160 hrs out. Lots can change as we have seen and things may continue to change for the better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Storm crushed by PV, then pattern change with area flooded by warmth. Gotta love it. At this point I do. Time to melt off this old, crusty, dirty glacier, and perhaps start anew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 you could tell it was going to be worse like you said. The storm was much slower...the pv out ran it and crushed it south instead of phasing in and amplifying the hgts. yeah this run was just an epic disaster, if 00z runs look like this, this baby is dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 15" still on the ground in Monmouth County? Say what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yea it sucks, but it was also progged 5 runs in a row at 160 hrs out. Lots can change as we have seen and things may continue to change for the better or worse. Personally, I don't see the storm staying as currently modeled all the way until thursday. When was the last time we've seen that? It's about as flat and OTS as it could be right now. The likelihood of this solution staying the same isn't that great IMO. At this point it could totally die out in the gulf or..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 15" still on the ground in Monmouth County? Say what? makes sense, i have 8 on the ground here, and they have been hit harder than i have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Alright perhaps I am seeing things wrong here but i am looking at the images off of Raleighs and it appears as if the ECM has some kind of energy actually near FL at 120 hrs And then it tries to bring this up well off the eastern seaboard at 144 hrs.... Or is that area of low pressure out in the Atlantic the low pressure that is north of the lakes at 120 hrs? I do not have the in between hours to be able to verify where exactly that low pressure comes from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 For starters ... I believe you should look at what i had actually stated.. By the time this gets into short range...by short range i mean under 48 hrs....perhaps even under 36 hrs.... Now, since the beginning of tracking this threat I have stated (and always do) specifically what each model is verbatim showing and suggesting...from there i look at the teleconnections that are actually in place which more or less drive the weather that we experience Also I never at one point and time said that Out To Sea is not viable...Once again please do not put words into my mouth. If i have stated this I would like you to point me out to where I have actually said this? A link would be sufficient. Now lets compare last nights 00z GFS means to 12 Z GFS means.... Last night at 108 hrs... http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12120.gif Todays 12 Z at 108 hrs. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12108.gif Interestingly enough the means since 00z have actually shifted towards the NW... Now lets go back to the 12 Z operational GFS @ 84 hrs.. http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06084.gif We see an area of 1026 mb high pressure right along the SE Coast.... And if you look at this view http://raleighwx.ame...tropical084.gif You see that area of 1026 high pressure is connected to an area of 1025 mbs to the east. By 90 hrs http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06090.gif That stronger area of high pressure gets shoved east by a weak 1017 area of low pressure when majority of that energy is actually still over Louisianna? Now..if you want to believe that a weak area of 1017 mb low pressure is actually going to push a 1026 mb high pressure east...(with the low actually over LA) then by all means you are entitled to that opinion..however..I do not believe something like that is going to actually occur... I believe the models are underestimating the strength of the Southeast Ridge or that area of High pressure... Now you can also claim that past recent events such as this past weekend are irrelevant... However..if we have the same teleconnections in place for this upcoming potential as this past weekend then how is it irrelevant? NAO is positive..AO is positive....PNA currently neutral...(going negative) and EPO expected negative... Models are to be used as guidance and as tools when one is forecasting .... So these thoughts of mine are not based on "nothing" but rather teleconnections & pattern in place and looking at guidance & factoring in climo Oh for your own self reflection, I rec'd a private message from a poster on this site who will remain anonymous that has the same feelings towards your "thoughts/wishcasting". BTW the NAO was rising for these events and will be falling for this event from a positive towards neutral or slightly negative state so the teleconnections are different, not to mention the synoptics. This potential system is being driven by the northern stream while yesterdays was southern stream driven. They are very different in fact if you really think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yeah this run was just an epic disaster, if 00z runs look like this, this baby is dead agreed, not a good trend at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 that this is going to be coming more west & Adams thoughts are very much IMO going to be realized by the time this is in short range..... From what you just quoted back to me... Are we in the short range yet? Did i not just come back to you with viable reasoning supported by teleconnections, and model guidance? Somehow you ignored that...I am not sure why..... You are entitled to your thoughts and you have not upset me by any means...verification time is about 120 hours away from happening and i have yet to come out with a forecast only thoughts at this present time based on what is happening and what has happened and what is still happening via now with the monday tuesday event.... (more northwest then originally modeled) The above statement couldn't be more incorrect! This systtem was originally modeled as a clipper and now it is digging much further to the south and interacting with the southern stream, so in fact has trended completely the opposite of what you say above! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 for those that like it warm euro is showing 50s starting next monday...with mid to upper 40s during the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Tuesday's system has been a late phase between an arctic boundary and southern energy....and has been that way for a while. The southern energy has become more active but the two features have been there for some time (but that's for a different thread to argue over semantically). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 for those that like it warm euro is showing 50s starting next monday...with mid to upper 40s during the weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if Monday were 55 in Philly IF that Euro map verified. WSW downslope and a Carolina high equals easy torch. BTW, Sunday will be warmer than Saturday....Sat may still be a seasonably cold day but it is on the retreat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 for those that like it warm euro is showing 50s starting next monday...with mid to upper 40s during the weekend. One can only hope this is wrong. We are in February..snowiest month typically for this area. Really need something positive to change in order to get another decent snow event or two. Not really ready for temps of 50's until the end of April. Most peoople would take another 6-10 inch storm with temps in the teens Holding out hope we get somehting good near the end of February or early March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Tuesday's system has been a late phase between an arctic boundary and southern energy....and has been that way for a while. The southern energy has become more active but the two features have been there for some time (but that's for a different thread to argue over semantically). Yes and the artic boundary was delivered by a clipper that was progged to pass to our north if I remember correctly and starting Friday the models began digging this disturbance further and further south, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Oh for your own self reflection, I rec'd a private message from a poster on this site who will remain anonymous that has the same feelings towards your "thoughts/wishcasting". BTW the NAO was rising for these events and will be falling for this event from a positive towards neutral or slightly negative state so the teleconnections are different, not to mention the synoptics. This potential system is being driven by the northern stream while yesterdays was southern stream driven. They are very different in fact if you really think about it. NAO since around FEB 1st has been neutral to positive.....not sure i see the difference going 7 days out when it is still showing as neutral to positive... AO is quite positive at this point and over the next 7 days is expected to go towards neutral... PNA is neutral and going negative..... Now teleconnection wise we pretty much know that a + PNA places a trough along the east coast and ridging out west...we do not have that in place...and for the most recent system either ..we do have a negative EPO but then that to will be going towards positive sometime along or after the 10th.... Once again you are coming out with wishcasting statements etc but I have not placed a forecast for this system at all. All i have stated is that by the time this gets into the shorter range and by shorter range I have clarified 36-48 and under ..I would not be surprised to see that this has trended more towards the west.... It would not be the first time that models have over done the extent of the cold air pushing south& the PV and underdone the extent of the SE ridge. . again I will continue to do what I always do which is monitor the guidance and the teleconnectors and fine tune my thoughts until we are at about 24 hrs out... at that time is when a forecast will be issued and not before then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yes and the artic boundary was delivered by a clipper that was progged to pass to our north if I remember correctly and starting Friday the models began digging this disturbance further and further south, no? Check the other thread. This one should stay focused on Thursday's potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Check the other thread. This one should stay focused on Thursday's potential... Noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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