atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 i'm probably seeing it wrong, but to me, this does not look really impressive. GFS thru 120 hrs... Welcome to the GFS...Majority of your models have had a flat solution out to sea ...the only model that has been consistent with bringing this further up the coast is the ECM .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 To be clear, my mixing concern lies with the storm track, not the air mass. I'm suggesting the low could track farther west than any model is currently showing. If I had to make a forecast and my life depended on it, I'd probably take the current Euro and be done, but I'm hypothesizing where things could go wrong. If you are correct about the SE/pseudo Bermuda high ridge and a more inland/west track, when do you think this would start showing up more on the global operational models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Pretty much sure that the NOGAPS will end up S & E but i do have to say i find it very interesting that a model with a progressive bias is still in the GOM @ 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not sure if anyone pointed this out but the NAO is no longer forecasted to go neutral or slightly - as it was five days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I know it's in the super long range but towards the end of 00z GFS run a massive west coast ridge builds in and the SE ridge slides off shore. It would appear our next threat is about two weeks away after we get through a rough period dominated by ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 heres the 0z ggem for the storm, pretty much the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I am going to go out on a limb here with this and say that since the NOGAPS at 138 hrs has actually trended west from previous runs that this is going to be coming more west & Adams thoughts are very much IMO going to be realized by the time this is in short range..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 GGEM @ 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I am going to go out on a limb here with this and say that since the NOGAPS at 138 hrs has actually trended west from previous runs that this is going to be coming more west & Adams thoughts are very much IMO going to be realized by the time this is in short range..... No offense but I've noticed a pattern with your thoughts this winter. They always favor storms trending towards your backyard. If this was a lakes cutter your thoughts would say it would trend east in subsequent runs. I take your thoughts with a grain of salt, not to say this won't, but since every model less the Euro is OTS it sounds more like wishcasting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 No offense but I've noticed a pattern with your thoughts. They always favor storms trending towards your backyard. If this was a lakes cutter your thoughts would say it would trend east in subsequent runs. I take your thoughts with a grain of salt, not to say this won't, but since every model less the Euro is OTS it sounds more like wishcasting at this point. You noticed a pattern with my thoughts? Have i ever mentioned my back yard? Have i ever mentioned ABE? I am not going to take offense but you are extremely mistaken... What i simply am doing is going by the pattern that is in place and will still be in place at the time of this event.... Notice how far NW todays storm came? What support is there for a system so far off the east coast? What exactly is going to cause this system to go off the east coast as the GFS is showing? The last thing I do is wishcast ...matter of fact I am dead set against wishcasting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 tuesdays storm, thursday is a coastal scraper on the ggem Yeah the ggem came nw from the 12z....gets preciep into cnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 dt on the 00z ggem Wxrisk.com 0z Canadian model is out... MAJOR SNOWSTORM for NC VA lower MD possibly Dc and s NJ. KEY difference with the gfs... is at 96 &108 hours the Canadian does not "crush " southern energy /surface LOW. This is in good agreement with last 5runs of euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I will actually take this a step further ..Lets look at the 00z GGEM at 144 hrs http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Which is Saturday 00z Here was 12 Z at the same time... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/f156.gif I would say we actually have come in closer to the coast and further North then the 12 Z run was at the same time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 alright the euro is out to hr6, will post what happens with the tuesday storm in that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 through hr 84 the euro is alittle faster with the storm...the northern stream is dropping in a little more than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 96 has a sub 1012 low over mobile...the northern stream is more robust this run and is crushing things more so than 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 102 has a sub 1008 low over central fl panhandle lgt precip from pa to tn, tn down to the gulf coast is hvr precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 108 has a sub 1008 low about 100-150 miles east of hse...lgt precip from northern burb and western burbs on south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 114 storm goes ots.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the problem is very clear at 108 if you look at the 500 chart and look at colorado., dulls out and widens the base of thr trough and wave bye bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the problem is very clear at 108 if you look at the 500 chart and look at colorado., dulls out and widens the base of thr trough and wave bye bye yea you could tell by hr 90 it wasnt going to do it. The northern stream just squashed it and sent it right ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Sounds like 0.01-0.10 for most in this region Tombo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Sounds like 0.01-0.10 for most in this region Tombo? pretty much ray, the coast may get a little over .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well this is disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 So the Euro joined the others with a SE (OTS) track as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 So the Euro joined the others with a SE (OTS) track as well? Yea it looks like it.. I still hold on to the belief that this storm is going to get way further NW then modeled right now. Look at this last storm how much farther NW it ended up. But each storm is different, But I don't think it's handling the phasing right or the break down of the Pacific ridge. Still though Voyager, that may not be enough for us to be dancing in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well this is disappointing One run of the Euro...shift yes but not trend but the northern stream is not helping. we need that to lift a bit north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yes it was pretty much a miss. I guess at this point the storm is a no show unless things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You noticed a pattern with my thoughts? Have i ever mentioned my back yard? Have i ever mentioned ABE? I am not going to take offense but you are extremely mistaken... B What i simply am doing is going by the pattern that is in place and will still be in place at the time of this event.... Notice how far NW todays storm came? What support is there for a system so far off the east coast? What exactly is going to cause this system to go off the east coast as the GFS is showing? The last thing I do is wishcast ...matter of fact I am dead set against wishcasting..... Euro OTS now too. The setup for this event is synoptically different than yesterday's event and by saying look what yesterday's event did and applying it to this is wishcasting in the face of all of the models. What support is there for an OTS track?? What support isn't there?? Simply stating the NAO is positive isn't support. Just bc the NAO is positive doesnt mean a storm has to hug the coast. Look at the PV it's huge and it's elongated from east to west on the models, that is why it's OTS on every model and without any kind of phase it will remain that way. I'm not saying things can't change and all of the data isn't even over the conus for good sampling, but anybody that says OTS isn't viable right now is wishcasting IMO and has no support in that claim that's all. I hope for my backyards sake it does come NW and alot more NW, but I'm not going to say it will without any model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like this mornings runs are also ots! Not looking too promising atm. Maybe things will be better on the later runs... oops that's wishcasting right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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