Feb 3-6 Observations

[Rankin5150]

The temp IMBY has dropped 2 degrees the past hour. Sitting at 39 deg. The wetbulb is now at 32.9.

The radar looks very interesting as well:

http://www.intellica...px?animate=true

[Isopycnic]

The temp IMBY has dropped 2 degrees the past hour. Sitting at 39 deg. The wetbulb is now at 32.9.

The radar looks very interesting as well:

http://www.intellica...px?animate=true

Light sleet and rain in New Bern, NC

[CandymanColumbusGA]

All of the activity is to the north of me in Auburn and La Grange. A lot of it isn't hitting the ground though as it's still too dry at the surface. We'll see if we can't get them something!

[DaculaWeather]

You can see my current conditions below. Looks like we're on the fringes of the virga that's entering Gwinnett.

[superjames1992]

Houston, Brownsville (BROWNSVILLE!!!), and Corpus Christi are under Winter Storm Warnings.

Brownsville is forecasted to get >1" of snow. Brownsville has had one accumulating snow since 1895 and that was on Christmas morning of 2004.

[EmersonGA]

Houston, Brownsville (BROWNSVILLE!!!), and Corpus Christi are under Winter Storm Warnings.

Brownsville is forecasted to get >1" of snow. Brownsville has had one accumulating snow since 1895 and that was on Christmas morning of 2004.

I'm officially jealous that the entire western gulf coast is under WSW and I"m getting 34 and rain.

[CentralNC]

Maybe it's something I ate, but I have a gut feeling that late tonight / early tomorrow there will be more sleet/freezing rain in my part of the triad than what is currently being indicated (before the changeover.).

[burgertime]

Houston, Brownsville (BROWNSVILLE!!!), and Corpus Christi are under Winter Storm Warnings.

Brownsville is forecasted to get >1" of snow. Brownsville has had one accumulating snow since 1895 and that was on Christmas morning of 2004.

All my outside family lives all over TX. My Dad actually lived in Corpus Christie for a while, like you said it is extremely rare for them to see snow. Just looking at the 6z they might be able to squeak out 2 inches which would be pretty substantial. Interestingly enough some of my first memories of snow as a child were in central Texas (Ballinger) when we got a 3 inch snow storm which isn't rare but certainly doesn't happen often. Maybe that's why I love snow so much.

[Lookout]

Houston, Brownsville (BROWNSVILLE!!!), and Corpus Christi are under Winter Storm Warnings.

Brownsville is forecasted to get >1" of snow. Brownsville has had one accumulating snow since 1895 and that was on Christmas morning of 2004.

It's funny that they issue warnings for one inch or less..I thought we were bad. But seriously, that is some incredible stuff. I hope they get more than expected. Who would have thought that in 2004 when they did get accumulating snow, they would see it again a little over 6 years later? This has been an incredible winter. However, it must be said there is high bust potential for them and southeast tx in general. Nam is bone dry in south tx and pretty dry in general along the coast. Gfs would be a pretty significant storm. So it will be pretty interesting to see who wins.

As for here, been under the northern edge of that band of precip all night/morning but nothing here because the heaviest returns have been to the south. And with this type of dry air in place, it's going to take a little bit heavier stuff to reach the ground. However, returns are increasing across alabama currently. It also must be said, the nam AND ruc have completely missed this narrow band of precip. However, the last ruc run I saw really expands the precip quickly over the next 6 hours. But surface temps are likely to warm into the 35 to 40 degree range. It won't stop sleet/snow from happening though but accumulations will be nil over eastern sections of the state.

However, temps/dewpoints south of atlanta down to near columbus support possible freezing rain (if it's not sleet). Based on radar, there might actually be an appreciable amount in this area as a nice blob of precip is moving in. Pretty strange to be talking about freezing rain south of atlanta, lagrange, to near columbus while there is little chance of that here (temps already to 36, dp 22 but temps are rising quick..however dps in the teens in the upstate heading this way).

But it's a race between it and the waa. However, it's interesting to note that this mornings 12z nam, for the first time, finally is showing some evaporational cooling at 850mb with a sounding that is close to mostly snow or sleet/snow by this evening for a few hours before it warms in the mid levels.

Nam isn't as cold at 925 to 950mb in north ga but still looks cold enough for a period of freezing rain along the eastern slopes of the mountains in far northeast ga, especially extreme nw sc, and the foothills of nc. This is likely an elevation dependent situation as areas below and above the 1500 to 3000 foot level will be all rain by 12z tomorrow. However, in the nc foothills/eastern slopes, nam has subfreezing wetbulbs at 950mb through tomorrow afternoon. It will be interesting to see how long it hangs on because if it hangs on that long, there could be quite the ice event(storm?) in those favored elevations.

[FoothillsNC]

But it's a race between it and the waa. However, it's interesting to note that this mornings 12z nam, for the first time, finally is showing some evaporational cooling at 850mb with a sounding that is close to mostly snow or sleet/snow by this evening for a few hours before it warms in the mid levels.

Nam isn't as cold at 925 to 950mb in north ga but still looks cold enough for a period of freezing rain along the eastern slopes of the mountains in far northeast ga, especially extreme nw sc, and the foothills of nc. This is likely an elevation dependent situation as areas below and above the 1500 to 3000 foot level will be all rain by 12z tomorrow. However, in the nc foothills/eastern slopes, nam has subfreezing wetbulbs at 950mb through tomorrow afternoon. It will be interesting to see how long it hangs on because if it hangs on that long, there could be quite the ice event(storm?) in those favored elevations.

was just looking at the NAM init panels and it missed western VA dry air by 2 degrees in general. I don't know if that means anything down here, but already its going to be an extremely close call in the morning. Precip should start here by midnight or so, on RUC, and with the 2m temps and dewpoints progged so close, just missing the temps 1 or 2 degrees will make the difference between plain rain and a few hours of glaze or sleet. In fact NAM has me at 24 hours just 34 or 35 on the surface with dewpoints still around 28, and by then the moisture has been going for a good 6 hours. However, theres also a sharp cutoff to the precip around to my north near I-40 where it takes much longer to get precip in there on most models. So this could be a case where the southern foothills and western , NW SC are a closer call than further north and may actually have some minor sleet accum. by dawn. Interesting setup and doesn't ocur this way very much.

[EmersonGA]

I'm currently at 28/16. I wish the precip would hurry up.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

As for here, been under the northern edge of that band of precip all night/morning but nothing here because the heaviest returns have been to the south. And with this type of dry air in place, it's going to take a little bit heavier stuff to reach the ground. However, returns are increasing across alabama currently. It also must be said, the nam AND ruc have completely missed this narrow band of precip. However, the last ruc run I saw really expands the precip quickly over the next 6 hours. But surface temps are likely to warm into the 35 to 40 degree range. It won't stop sleet/snow from happening though but accumulations will be nil over eastern sections of the state.

However, temps/dewpoints south of atlanta down to near columbus support possible freezing rain (if it's not sleet). Based on radar, there might actually be an appreciable amount in this area as a nice blob of precip is moving in. Pretty strange to be talking about freezing rain south of atlanta, lagrange, to near columbus while there is little chance of that here (temps already to 36, dp 22 but temps are rising quick..however dps in the teens in the upstate heading this way).

The dew points were very low for us this morning, but it has moistened up just enough to allow for some very cold rain to fall here. Out towards Auburn and up to La Grange they have had issues with slick spots on bridges and overpasses. I expect this to continue for at least the next few hours, specially with the heavier band moving to the north of Auburn right now. If this would have been 30 to 40 miles to the south I would have been right with my forecast yesterday morning (I said southern viewing area, but it's the northern viewing area seeing it now ) I'm just trying to figure out how long the cold will stay over the top of us throughout today and into tonight... could be real interesting the next couple of hours.

[Lookout]

was just looking at the NAM init panels and it missed western VA dry air by 2 degrees in general. I don't know if that means anything down here, but already its going to be an extremely close call in the morning. Precip should start here by midnight or so, on RUC, and with the 2m temps and dewpoints progged so close, just missing the temps 1 or 2 degrees will make the difference between plain rain and a few hours of glaze or sleet. In fact NAM has me at 24 hours just 34 or 35 on the surface with dewpoints still around 28, and by then the moisture has been going for a good 6 hours. However, theres also a sharp cutoff to the precip around to my north near I-40 where it takes much longer to get precip in there on most models. So this could be a case where the southern foothills and western , NW SC are a closer call than further north and may actually have some minor sleet accum. by dawn. Interesting setup and doesn't ocur this way very much.

There is a lot about this winter we don't see happen very often lol.

Not sure how it's been up there but fwiw, the ruc has been terrible on temps here. Was 30 over 20 this morning while the ruc had me at 34 over 29. It's also way too warm over west central ga/eastern al.

Considering precip has been starting earlier than expected over most of ga/al, it might start a little sooner over nc. Indeed it will be close even for the lower elevations. It would actually be better for it to start a little later this evening to allow for some cooling but we'll see. I haven't trusted the models on the precip onset from the start but the 12z gfs is finally catching on I think as it has come in much wetter. If precip can get into the foothills/damming regions of western nc much sooner and actually cool everyone to their wetbulb, freezing rain will probably hang on longer than expected even in lower elevations. Gfs has hkk for example with a wetbulb of 30 prior to the precip moving in, cools it to 31 but then jumps it to 34/35 by 18z. Although there is no fresh cold source, this seems unlikely to me and i would expect it to stay at freezing till at least 18z.

It's interesting to note the gfs now has my location at 32.5 with a wetbulb of 32 even. If it's off just a tiny bit, freezing rain is a possibility here for a little while. I'm not convinced though because temps have warmed a fair bit so far today, so we'll see. However, it now has subfreezing wetbulbs over a fairly large area by 06z tonight so now it seems like at least a period of freezing rain for many location is likely.

gfs continues to target the atlanta to athens to anderson/columbia for the heaviest rains. Looks like a winner here in that regard. Going to be a damn cold rain though.

[DaculaWeather]

We're at 38 and web bulb of 34 in Gwinnett. Temps are warming rapidly now rising about 4-5 degrees/hr.

[DaculaWeather]

someone posted this in another thread but from the HPC this morning:

N HINDSIGHT...I THINK THAT THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE

SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NERN GULF/FL PANHANDLE THAN DEPICTED ON

THE DAY 7 UPDATED SURFACE GRAPHIC.

Very promising anyway.

[Lookout]

The dew points were very low for us this morning, but it has moistened up just enough to allow for some very cold rain to fall here. Out towards Auburn and up to La Grange they have had issues with slick spots on bridges and overpasses. I expect this to continue for at least the next few hours, specially with the heavier band moving to the north of Auburn right now. If this would have been 30 to 40 miles to the south I would have been right with my forecast yesterday morning (I said southern viewing area, but it's the northern viewing area seeing it now ) I'm just trying to figure out how long the cold will stay over the top of us throughout today and into tonight... could be real interesting the next couple of hours.

I'm just happy my thoughts of several days ago, of mixed precip to start for many is playing out. Don't recall anyone really mentioning it much besides me, indeed it was meet with some resistance. . Not to toot my own horn but toot toot lol (as arn anderson would say).

However, for my location I might end up missing out with the exception of a little sleet. Temps have warmed to 41 already, so northwest Ga, the upstate, northeast ga above i-85, have a chance but south of 85 here in ne ga, temps just seem a bit too warm for anything other than some sleet to start. If the precip can somehow slow down and we get some cooling prior to onset, there is a chance of a little freezing rain but I wouldn't bet on it right now as precip looks to be pushing ahead. Still, precip should start as sleet most areas with all this dry air but temps are awfully warm already here so we'll see.

Only reason your southern areas didn't get it is because of where the precip set up though which is a hard thing to get a hold of because I only recall one model run that showed it and I think it was the nam. Otherwise, every model missed it. So I wouldn't sweet it. I expected and mentioned it the other day a finger of moisture/precip could develop but i wasn't sure where it would be.

You are right though it's a really tough call figuring out how long your northern areas stay below freezing. This is such a unique and unusual setup there isn't much past events to look back on to get an idea. I would assume by this afternoon it will warm up because temps over northeast ga have risen into the upper 30s/near 40 and low level flow is from that direction so between actual waa in the low levels and latent heat release it should be just a cold rain by mid to late afternoon but that's just a guess.

Radar is interesting showing some bright/heavy returns within that band so probably a fair bit of sleet is falling there. Would not be surprised to hear reports of some flakes within it.

[dsaur]

I'm just happy my thoughts of several days ago, of mixed precip to start for many is playing out. Don't recall anyone really mentioning it much besides me, indeed it was meet with some resistance. . Not to toot my own horn but toot toot lol (as arn anderson would say).

However, for my location I might end up missing out with the exception of a little sleet. Temps have warmed to 41 already, so northwest Ga, the upstate, northeast ga above i-85, have a chance but south of 85 here in ne ga, temps just seem a bit too warm for anything other than some sleet to start. If the precip can somehow slow down and we get some cooling prior to onset, there is a chance of a little freezing rain but I wouldn't bet on it right now as precip looks to be pushing ahead. Still, precip should start as sleet most areas with all this dry air but temps are awfully warm already here so we'll see.

Only reason your southern areas didn't get it is because of where the precip set up though which is a hard thing to get a hold of because I only recall one model run that showed it and I think it was the nam. Otherwise, every model missed it. So I wouldn't sweet it.

You are right though it's a really tough call figuring out how long your northern areas stay below freezing. This is such a unique and unusual setup there isn't much past events to look back on to get an idea. I would assume by this afternoon it will warm up because temps over northeast ga have risen into the upper 30s/near 40 and low level flow is from that direction so between actual waa in the low levels and latent heat release it should be just a cold rain by mid to late afternoon but that's just a guess.

Radar is interesting showing some bright/heavy returns within that band so probably a fair bit of sleet is falling there. Would not be surprised to hear reports of some flakes within it.

Well, it was still sleeting when I went to bed at 5, though only sporaticly, and my neighbor said it was sleeting when she got up. I'm still at 34 so I expect those echos closing in on me will be more sleet. It was pretty good for an hour or so early this morning, and only mixed a bit with rain in the heavier pockets. Right before I went to bed some flakes were mixing in, but radar showed the whole line sagging south of me, so I crashed. Don't think I missed much as I could see the ground when I got up at 9 T

[3monkeymom]

Sfc temp 32 with a dewpoint of 27. Currently, we're seeing light sleet mixed with freezing rain. Several major accidents have been reported due to icing on elevated portions of the interstates (we have long stretches of those, some 20+ miles).

[buckeyefan1]

I can report 25 pellets of sleet on I 26 and Hwy 378

[wx n of atl]

Temp 36

dew point 23

precip heading this way

[CandymanColumbusGA]

I'm just happy my thoughts of several days ago, of mixed precip to start for many is playing out. Don't recall anyone really mentioning it much besides me, indeed it was meet with some resistance. . Not to toot my own horn but toot toot lol (as arn anderson would say).

However, for my location I might end up missing out with the exception of a little sleet. Temps have warmed to 41 already, so northwest Ga, the upstate, northeast ga above i-85, have a chance but south of 85 here in ne ga, temps just seem a bit too warm for anything other than some sleet to start. If the precip can somehow slow down and we get some cooling prior to onset, there is a chance of a little freezing rain but I wouldn't bet on it right now as precip looks to be pushing ahead. Still, precip should start as sleet most areas with all this dry air but temps are awfully warm already here so we'll see.

Only reason your southern areas didn't get it is because of where the precip set up though which is a hard thing to get a hold of because I only recall one model run that showed it and I think it was the nam. Otherwise, every model missed it. So I wouldn't sweet it. I expected and mentioned it the other day a finger of moisture/precip could develop but i wasn't sure where it would be.

You are right though it's a really tough call figuring out how long your northern areas stay below freezing. This is such a unique and unusual setup there isn't much past events to look back on to get an idea. I would assume by this afternoon it will warm up because temps over northeast ga have risen into the upper 30s/near 40 and low level flow is from that direction so between actual waa in the low levels and latent heat release it should be just a cold rain by mid to late afternoon but that's just a guess.

Radar is interesting showing some bright/heavy returns within that band so probably a fair bit of sleet is falling there. Would not be surprised to hear reports of some flakes within it.

No worries about tooting your horn about this event. I have been watching the event that happened Tuesday night (there was a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Auburn area), this event in which I forecasted to be a little farther south, but like you said it went more north which happens.

In regards to the temps... In Auburn, when the heavier shower passed by it dropped the temperature 2 degrees in 20 mins. If we see heavier rain/freezing rain/sleet up that way, they will be lucky to get above 34/35. Here in Columbus, we will make it closer to 40 since there isn't as much rain. It's all going to depend where the rain stays over the next few hours.

Then we have this system in the beginning of next week and the possible storm late next week.... Needless to say, I have been learning A LOT! I graduated from FSU in April and grew up in West Central Florida, so I don't have a ton of experience forecasting winter weather but I'm holding my own.

[DaculaWeather]

No worries about tooting your horn about this event. I have been watching the event that happened Tuesday night (there was a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Auburn area), this event in which I forecasted to be a little farther south, but like you said it went more north which happens.

In regards to the temps... In Auburn, when the heavier shower passed by it dropped the temperature 2 degrees in 20 mins. If we see heavier rain/freezing rain/sleet up that way, they will be lucky to get above 34/35. Here in Columbus, we will make it closer to 40 since there isn't as much rain. It's all going to depend where the rain stays over the next few hours.

Then we have this system in the beginning of next week and the possible storm late next week.... Needless to say, I have been learning A LOT! I graduated from FSU in April and grew up in West Central Florida, so I don't have a ton of experience forecasting winter weather but I'm holding my own.

Congratulations! Pay attention to the guys up here and you won't go wrong!

[dsaur]

Well, the leading edge is a mix, leaning more to the rain side. I'm up to 35 now. We'll see what happens when the precip picks up in a bit. T

[dsaur]

All sleet now, and coming down pretty good, even before the heavier stuff gets here. T

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Congratulations! Pay attention to the guys up here and you won't go wrong!

Thanks! I look forward to the Severe Weather Season and Hurricane Season, as I have more experience in those than winter weather. It's sure looks like it's coming down in La Grange and riding up Interstate 85 as a mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain.

[DeltaPilot]

34 degrees light to moderate sleet.

[Lookout]

No worries about tooting your horn about this event. I have been watching the event that happened Tuesday night (there was a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Auburn area), this event in which I forecasted to be a little farther south, but like you said it went more north which happens.

In regards to the temps... In Auburn, when the heavier shower passed by it dropped the temperature 2 degrees in 20 mins. If we see heavier rain/freezing rain/sleet up that way, they will be lucky to get above 34/35. Here in Columbus, we will make it closer to 40 since there isn't as much rain. It's all going to depend where the rain stays over the next few hours.

Then we have this system in the beginning of next week and the possible storm late next week.... Needless to say, I have been learning A LOT! I graduated from FSU in April and grew up in West Central Florida, so I don't have a ton of experience forecasting winter weather but I'm holding my own.

Well I don't do it often and let my "forecasts" speak for themselves but in this case I thought it was interesting no one else was mentioning it when this low first starting showing up on the models. It gives you a sense of pride when you get one right that most weren't concerned about.

I think you have been doing a fine job from what I've seen. Winter weather in the south is the hardest of anywhere in the country to forecast for so if you are holding your own, it's an accomplishment lol. You've certainly had your hands full more so than usual for your area this year. Trust me, past experience in this area is crucial to getting things right. Regardless of what the model show, past experience of how things usually work out around these parts trumps it most of the time. So pay attention to every detail and remember it always. It will pay off in the future.

Looks like I'm going to finally get some precip in here shortly, probably sleet/rain or all sleet. Although I'm wondering if the best will go just south of me, hard to say.

[atomic_rooster]

What area of the south are you in LookOut ? If you dont mind me asking?

[MotoWeatherman]

Getting very light sleet here at my office on the south side of Atlanta in Stockbridge. I would expect it to change over to rain soon once the effects of saturating the column of dry air above is over with.

[NEGa]

Getting very light sleet here at my office on the south side of Atlanta in Stockbridge.

btw, you drive from dah to stockbridge for work....every day? yikes!