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About 3monkeymom

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    Florida Parishes, SE Louisiana

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  1. 3monkeymom

    2017 Banter Thread #1

    Thank you! I really appreciate the kind words, and I hope you at least got to enjoy something wintry in your neck of the woods! This was a historic event for MBY, second only in accumulation to 12/11/08 and probably my personal favorite of all time. We ended up with 6" on the ground, even after losing at least 2" to warm ground temps and compaction. I loved every minute of it. Very happy for all the MS, AL, and N GA folks who scored as well. Even the FL panhandle got a piece of the action, which is beyond amazing. It looks like this was a bit of a disappointment for the Carolinas (at least outside of the mountains), but I'm hopeful the pattern will reload and produce for you guys later in the winter. I know a lot of those areas are due. You're absolutely right that (weather-wise) this is a whole different area from the upper SE, so I understand why LA doesn't "belong" anymore. It's just a bit painful to be so close to MS, still part of the SE crew, but technically share a forum with North Dakota and California instead. We have even less in common, LOL. But I totally get that there's a dearth of forum members within much of the interior and Deep South, and from the moderators' and administrators' perspective, it's smart to combine areas with fewer active posters in order to conserve resources. I just can't seem to stop lurking here because the disco is consistently high-quality and it still feels like "home", even if that's more of an emotional distinction than a logical one. :-) I would love to think that there would eventually be enough interest and participation to support a Gulf Coast forum, since that would probably be a more fitting place for a lot of us who are currently on the fringe of the SE or Western States forums. Maybe someday!
  2. I live about 45-50 miles NNW of New Orleans, and this was probably #1 on my personal list of all-time snowstorms. 12/11/08 had higher accumulations, so in terms of historical events that one was "better". But the duration was shorter in '08 and temps rebounded almost immediately after the snow stopped. Yesterday's event was all snow from approximately 4 AM to 9 PM, with rates varying from moderate to heavy for a good 12 hours of that period. Ground temps were warm, which caused some melting even with temps holding steady at 31F for the duration. We ended up with almost 6" of accumulation even after compaction and some melting. Had rates stayed high, I'm guessing it would have been more like 8-10". If I can ever figure out how to resize my pics, I'll post a few photos.
  3. 3monkeymom

    2017 Banter Thread #1

    Technically my area got carved out of this forum a few years ago, so feel free to delete this if it's not appropriate. I just wanted to wish the rest of the forum the kind of best case scenario/overperform that we've gotten here on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain. There were models showing 2-4" accumulations here, but they were outliers and I thought they were totally out to lunch--especially after last night's NWS soundings showed a deep and persistent warm nose. But here we are this morning with a solid 3" on the ground at my house, 2m temps parked at 31 degrees, and continued moderate snowfall. I'll post photos if anyone is interested in seeing them. I know this doesn't automatically translate to a better-than-average performance for the rest of the southeast, and it's rare (if not impossible) for all of us to be pleasantly surprised by a single event, but just know that I'm rooting for every one of you! May this system somehow find a way to meet or exceed all your expectations.
  4. I'm in SE Louisiana, and suffice it to say that I'm one of the ones having a difficult time wrapping my head around the medium-range forecasts. (Although I'm very much an amateur.) Any forecast outside of 72 hours looks like a toss-up to me.
  5. 3monkeymom

    New Southeast Members Map

    I don't always have much pull with those kinds of things, but I'll do what I can. Thanks to everyone who replied for the kind invitation. I've never really wanted to belong to any forum but this one, in spite of being an outlier even before the forums were rearranged. I'd love to stay. (And post more, as soon as I feel a bit more confident about my knowledge.)
  6. 3monkeymom

    New Southeast Members Map

    Sorry, guys, I only just realized that my state isn't even included in the SE subforum anymore. Whenever it happened that the Western states became Central/Western, I clearly missed the boat. I'll probably still read here (because I appreciate the volume and quality of the posts), but feel free to remove me from the map -- especially if that might make it easier for the rest of you to use.
  7. 3monkeymom

    New Southeast Members Map

    Hopefully that worked. I don't post here much, but I figure somebody's got to represent those outlying areas. Thanks for doing this, burgertime.
  8. 3monkeymom

    Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion I

    I don't have any insight on the seasonal models, but I'm reading a lot of different opinions on whether or not the current cold stratosphere spells doom for winter lovers. Aren't there supposedly some signals in the Euro weeklies (like the projected Aleutian blocking) that could kick off the kind of strat warming over Asia that we would need to see to flip the AO toward the end of Nov/first of Dec? Frankly, I'm not going to worry too much about November anyway. Even if the whole month is a bust, it's not a month that typically gives us in the SE much chance of winter weather anyway. There's still plenty of time for things to change before we see much negative impact for DJF. On a totally unscientific note, I've noticed over the past several weeks that our 5-10 day forecasts down here on the Gulf Coast have wanted to show a sustained warm-up after each of the cool shots we've gotten so far. But not one of those week-long warm-ups has ever materialized. We'll have two, maybe three somewhat warmer days, then we've gone back to below- or slightly below-normal temps for four or five. Obviously I'm not talking about deep, highly anomalous cold or anything; I've just noticed that the medium- or long-range always wants to show a torch as opposed to what we actually end up experiencing. It makes me wonder if the models are performing reasonably well on specific short-range events but having a harder time catching onto the pattern as a whole.
  9. 3monkeymom

    iCyclone Chase: ISAAC

    Contraflow in LA will affect I-55 for sure, and almost certainly 1-12 and I-59 as well. Traffic on state roads will be heavy, but I expect most to be open. The problem you may run into heading south on the back roads is local law enforcement. That shouldn't be a problem if you're sticking to higher ground north of Lake Ponchartrain, but if you try to head south from there or from New Orleans,, they'll likely try to stonewall you. And there won't really be much chance of getting around them easily because there's a limited number of routes you can take from the lake to all points south. The few that aren't in contraflow will probably have a heavy law enforcement presence secondary to any evacuations that have been ordered.