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3monkeymom

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About 3monkeymom

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    Florida Parishes, SE Louisiana
  1. I'm in SE Louisiana, and suffice it to say that I'm one of the ones having a difficult time wrapping my head around the medium-range forecasts. (Although I'm very much an amateur.) Any forecast outside of 72 hours looks like a toss-up to me.
  2. I don't always have much pull with those kinds of things, but I'll do what I can. Thanks to everyone who replied for the kind invitation. I've never really wanted to belong to any forum but this one, in spite of being an outlier even before the forums were rearranged. I'd love to stay. (And post more, as soon as I feel a bit more confident about my knowledge.)
  3. Sorry, guys, I only just realized that my state isn't even included in the SE subforum anymore. Whenever it happened that the Western states became Central/Western, I clearly missed the boat. I'll probably still read here (because I appreciate the volume and quality of the posts), but feel free to remove me from the map -- especially if that might make it easier for the rest of you to use.
  4. Hopefully that worked. I don't post here much, but I figure somebody's got to represent those outlying areas. Thanks for doing this, burgertime.
  5. I don't have any insight on the seasonal models, but I'm reading a lot of different opinions on whether or not the current cold stratosphere spells doom for winter lovers. Aren't there supposedly some signals in the Euro weeklies (like the projected Aleutian blocking) that could kick off the kind of strat warming over Asia that we would need to see to flip the AO toward the end of Nov/first of Dec? Frankly, I'm not going to worry too much about November anyway. Even if the whole month is a bust, it's not a month that typically gives us in the SE much chance of winter weather anyway. There's still plenty of time for things to change before we see much negative impact for DJF. On a totally unscientific note, I've noticed over the past several weeks that our 5-10 day forecasts down here on the Gulf Coast have wanted to show a sustained warm-up after each of the cool shots we've gotten so far. But not one of those week-long warm-ups has ever materialized. We'll have two, maybe three somewhat warmer days, then we've gone back to below- or slightly below-normal temps for four or five. Obviously I'm not talking about deep, highly anomalous cold or anything; I've just noticed that the medium- or long-range always wants to show a torch as opposed to what we actually end up experiencing. It makes me wonder if the models are performing reasonably well on specific short-range events but having a harder time catching onto the pattern as a whole.
  6. WVUE Fox 8 just interviewed a woman who was rescued by boat. Her impression is that every single home in Braithwaite (in northern Plaquemines Parish) is destroyed.
  7. Contraflow in LA will affect I-55 for sure, and almost certainly 1-12 and I-59 as well. Traffic on state roads will be heavy, but I expect most to be open. The problem you may run into heading south on the back roads is local law enforcement. That shouldn't be a problem if you're sticking to higher ground north of Lake Ponchartrain, but if you try to head south from there or from New Orleans,, they'll likely try to stonewall you. And there won't really be much chance of getting around them easily because there's a limited number of routes you can take from the lake to all points south. The few that aren't in contraflow will probably have a heavy law enforcement presence secondary to any evacuations that have been ordered.
  8. I'm not far from NOLA, and trust me, everyone I know is taking this very seriously.
  9. Is it possible that the GFS is overdoing the SE ridge in the LR? I'm still very much an amateur when it comes to interpreting models, but the last frames of the 06z look weird to me. It's almost like the ridge is placed geographically, using straight Nina climo. There's also a deep trough in the middle of the CONUS and into Southern Mexico, but what's there to instigate a cold dump like that? All I can see on the big picture is the same GOA vortex that I thought was preventing the real cold from penetrating very far south.